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What will it take to eliminate pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO target rates of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe: a model-based analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for the "virtual elimination" of pediatric HIV: a mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) risk of less than 5%. We investigated uptake of prevention of MTCT (PMTCT) services, infant feeding recommendations, and specific drug regimens necessary to achieve this goal in Zimbabwe.

Methods and findings

We used a computer model to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women (mean age, 24 y; mean CD4, 451/µl; breastfeeding duration, 12 mo). Three PMTCT regimens were evaluated: (1) single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP), (2) WHO 2010 guidelines' "Option A" (zidovudine in pregnancy, infant nevirapine throughout breastfeeding for women without advanced disease, lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy for women with advanced disease), and (3) WHO "Option B" (pregnancy/breastfeeding-limited combination antiretroviral drug regimens without advanced disease; lifelong antiretroviral therapy with advanced disease). We examined four levels of PMTCT uptake (proportion of pregnant women accessing and adhering to PMTCT services): reported rates in 2008 and 2009 (36% and 56%, respectively) and target goals in 2008 and 2009 (80% and 95%, respectively). The primary model outcome was MTCT risk at weaning. The 2008 sdNVP-based National PMTCT Program led to a projected 12-mo MTCT risk of 20.3%. Improved uptake in 2009 reduced projected risk to 18.0%. If sdNVP were replaced by more effective regimens, with 2009 (56%) uptake, estimated MTCT risk would be 14.4% (Option A) or 13.4% (Option B). Even with 95% uptake of Option A or B, projected transmission risks (6.1%-7.7%) would exceed the WHO goal of less than 5%. Only if the lowest published transmission risks were used for each drug regimen, or breastfeeding duration were shortened, would MTCT risks at 95% uptake fall below 5%.

Conclusions

Implementation of the WHO PMTCT guidelines must be accompanied by efforts to improve access to PMTCT services, retain women in care, and support medication adherence throughout pregnancy and breastfeeding, to approach the "virtual elimination" of pediatric HIV in Zimbabwe. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

SUBMITTER: Ciaranello AL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3254654 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

What will it take to eliminate pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO target rates of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe: a model-based analysis.

Ciaranello Andrea L AL Perez Freddy F Keatinge Jo J Park Ji-Eun JE Engelsmann Barbara B Maruva Matthews M Walensky Rochelle P RP Dabis Francois F Chu Jennifer J Rusibamayila Asinath A Mushavi Angela A Freedberg Kenneth A KA

PLoS medicine 20120110 1

<h4>Background</h4>The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for the "virtual elimination" of pediatric HIV: a mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) risk of less than 5%. We investigated uptake of prevention of MTCT (PMTCT) services, infant feeding recommendations, and specific drug regimens necessary to achieve this goal in Zimbabwe.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We used a computer model to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women (mean age, 24 y; mean CD4, 451/µl; b ...[more]

PMID: 22253579

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Project description:Despite the progress in the Prevention of the Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV (PMTCT), the paediatric HIV epidemic remains worrying in Cameroon. HIV prevalence rate for the population of pregnant women was 7.6% in 2010 in Cameroon. The extent of the paediatric HIV epidemic is needed to inform policymakers. We developed a stochastic simulation model to estimate the number of new paediatric HIV infections through MTCT based on the observed uptake of services during the different steps of the PMTCT cascade in Cameroon in 2011. Different levels of PMTCT uptake was also assessed.A discrete events computer simulation-based approach with stochastic structure was proposed to generate a cohort of pregnant women followed-up until 6 weeks post-partum, and optionally until complete breastfeeding cessation in both prevalent and incident lactating HIV-infected women. The different parameters of the simulation model were fixed using data sources available from the 2011 national registry surveys, and from external cohorts in Cameroon. Different PMTCT coverages were simulated to assess their impact on MTCT. Available data show a low coverage of PMTCT services in Cameroon in 2011.Based on a simulation approach on a population of 995, 533 pregnant women, the overall residual MTCT rate in 2011 was estimated to be 22.1% (95 % CI: 18.6%-25.2%), the 6-week perinatal MTCT rate among prevalent HIV-infected mothers at delivery is estimated at 12.1% (95% CI: 8.1%-15.1%), with an additional postnatal MTCT rate estimated at 13.3% (95% CI: 9.3%-17.8%). The MTCT rate among children whose mothers seroconverted during breastfeeding was estimated at 20.8% (95% CI: 14.1%-26.9%). Overall, we estimated the number of new HIV infections in children in Cameroon to be 10, 403 (95% CI: 9, 054-13, 345) in 2011. When PMTCT uptake have been fixed at 100%, 90% and 80%, global MTCT rate failed to 0.9% (9% CI: 0.5%-1.7%), 2.0% (95% CI: 0.9%-3.2%) and 4.3% (95% CI: 2.4%-6.7%) respectively.This model is helpful to provide MTCT estimates to guide the national HIV policy in Cameroon. Increasing supply and uptake of PMTCT services among prevalent HIV infected pregnant women, as well as HIV-prevention interventions including the offer and acceptance of HIV testing and counselling in lactating women could reduce significantly the residual HIV MTCT in Cameroon. A public health effort should be made to encourage health care workers and pregnant women to use PMTCT services until complete breastfeeding cessation.

Project description:PROBLEM: Zimbabwe has one of the highest rates of HIV seroprevalence in the world. In 2001 only 4% of women and children in need of services for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV were receiving them. DESIGN: Pilot implementation of the first programme for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in rural Zimbabwe. SETTING: 120 bed district hospital in Buhera district (285,000 inhabitants), Manicaland, Zimbabwe. KEY MEASURES FOR IMPROVEMENT: Programme uptake indicators monitored for 18 months; impact of policy evaluated by assessing up-scaling of programme. STRATEGIES FOR CHANGE: Voluntary counselling and testing services for HIV were provided in the hospital antenatal clinic. Women identified as HIV positive and informed of their serostatus and their newborn were offered a single dose antiretroviral treatment of nevirapine; mother-child pairs were followed up through routine health services. Nursing staff and social workers were trained, and community mobilisation was conducted. EFFECTS OF CHANGE: No services for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV were available at baseline. Within 18 months, 2298 pregnant women had received pretest counselling, and the acceptance of HIV testing reached 93.0%. Of all 2137 women who had an HIV test, 1588 (74.3%) returned to collect their result; 326 of the 437 HIV positive women diagnosed had post-test counselling, and 104 (24%) mother-child pairs received nevirapine prophylaxis. LESSONS LEARNT: Minimum staffing, an enhanced training programme, and involvement of district health authorities are needed for the implementation and successful integration of services for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV. Voluntary counselling and testing services are important entry points for HIV prevention and care and for referral to community networks and medical HIV care services. A district approach is critical to extend programmes for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in rural settings. The lessons learnt from this pilot programme have contributed to the design of the national expansion strategy for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe.

Project description:Zimbabwe has made large strides in addressing HIV. To ensure a continued robust response, a clear understanding of costs associated with its HIV program is critical. We conducted a cross-sectional evaluation in 2017 to estimate the annual average patient cost for accessing Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission (PMTCT) services (through antenatal care) and Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) services in Zimbabwe. Twenty sites representing different types of public health facilities in Zimbabwe were included. Data on patient costs were collected through in-person interviews with 414 ART and 424 PMTCT adult patients and through telephone interviews with 38 ART and 47 PMTCT adult patients who had missed their last appointment. The mean and median annual patient costs were examined overall and by service type for all participants and for those who paid any cost. Potential patient costs related to time lost were calculated by multiplying the total time to access services (travel time, waiting time, and clinic visit duration) by potential earnings (US$75 per month assuming 8 hours per day and 5 days per week). Mean annual patient costs for accessing services for the participants was US$20.00 [standard deviation (SD) = US$80.42, median = US$6.00, range = US$0.00-US$12,18.00] for PMTCT and US$18.73 (SD = US$58.54, median = US$8.00, range = US$0.00-US$ 908.00) for ART patients. The mean annual direct medical costs for PMTCT and ART were US$9.78 (SD = US$78.58, median = US$0.00, range = US$0.00-US$ 90) and US$7.49 (SD = US$60.00, median = US$0.00) while mean annual direct non-medical cost for US$10.23 (SD = US$17.35, median = US$4.00) and US$11.23 (SD = US$25.22, median = US$6.00, range = US$0.00-US$ 360.00). The PMTCT and ART costs per visit based on time lost were US$3.53 (US$1.13 to US$8.69) and US$3.43 (US$1.14 to US$8.53), respectively. The mean annual patient costs per person for PMTCT and ART in this evaluation will impact household income since PMTCT and ART services in Zimbabwe are supposed to be free.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite a growing body of literature on HIV service costs in sub-Saharan Africa, only a few studies have estimated the facility-level cost of prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) services, and even fewer provide insights into the variation of PMTCT costs across facilities. In this study, we present the first empirical costs estimation of the accelerated program for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe and investigate the determinants of heterogeneity of the facility-level average cost per service. To understand such variation, we explored the association between average costs per service and supply-and demand-side characteristics, and quality of services. One aspect of the supply-side we explore carefully is the scale of production-which we define as the annual number of women tested or the yearly number of HIV-positive women on prophylaxis. METHODS:We collected rich data on the costs and PMTCT services provided by 157 health facilities out of 699 catchment areas in five provinces in Zimbabwe for 2013. In each health facility, we measured total costs and the number of women covered with PMTCT services and estimated the average cost per woman tested and the average cost per woman on either ARV prophylaxis or ART. We refer to these facility-level average costs per service as unitary costs. We also collected information on potential determinants of the variation of unitary costs. On the supply-side, we gathered data on the scale of production, staff composition and on the types of antenatal and family planning services provided. On the demand side, we measured the total population at the catchment area and surveyed eligible pairs of mothers and infants about previous use of HIV testing and prenatal care, and on the HIV status of both mothers and infants. We explored the determinants of unitary cost variation using a two-stage linear regression strategy. RESULTS:The average annual total cost of the PMTCT program per facility was US$16,821 (median US$8,920). The average cost per pregnant woman tested was US$80 (median US$47), and the average cost per HIV-positive pregnant woman initiated on ARV prophylaxis or treatment was US$786 annually (median US$420). We found substantial heterogeneity of unitary costs across facilities regardless of facility type. The scale of production was a strong predictor of unitary costs variation across facilities, with a negative and statistically significant correlation between the two variables (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS:These findings are the first empirical estimations of PMTCT costs in Zimbabwe. Unitary costs were found to be heterogeneous across health facilities, with evidence consistent with economies of scale.

Dataset Information

What will it take to eliminate pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO target rates of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe: a model-based analysis.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

What will it take to eliminate pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO target rates of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe: a model-based analysis.

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