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Incremental value of biochemical and echocardiographic measures in prediction of ischemic stroke: the Strong Heart Study.

ABSTRACT: American Indians have high rates of stroke. Improved risk stratification could enhance prevention, but the ability of biochemical and echocardiographic markers of preclinical disease to improve stroke prediction is not well-defined.We evaluated such markers as predictors of ischemic stroke in a community-based cohort of American Indians without prevalent cardiovascular or renal disease. Laboratory markers included C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and glycohemoglobin (HbA1c), whereas echocardiographic parameters comprised left atrial diameter, left ventricular mass, mitral annular calcification, and the ratio of early to late mitral diastolic velocities. Predictive performance was judged by indices of discrimination, reclassification, and calibration.After adjustment for standard risk factors, only HbA1c, albuminuria, and left atrial diameter were significantly associated with first ischemic stroke. Addition of HbA1c, although not urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, to a basic clinical model significantly improved the C-statistic (0.714 versus 0.695; P=0.044), whereas left atrial diameter modestly enhanced integrated discrimination improvement (0.90%; P=0.004), but not the C-statistic (0.701; P=0.528). When combined with HbA1c, left atrial diameter further increased integrated discrimination improvement (1.81%; P<0.001) but not the C-statistic (0.716). No marker achieved significant net reclassification improvement.In this cohort at high cardiometabolic risk, HbA1c emerged as the foremost predictor of ischemic stroke when added to traditional risk factors, affording substantially improved discrimination, with a more modest contribution for left atrial diameter. These findings bolster the role of HbA1c in cardiovascular risk assessment among persons with glycometabolic disorders and provide impetus for further study of the incremental value of echocardiography in high-risk populations.

SUBMITTER: Karas MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3288714 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Incremental value of biochemical and echocardiographic measures in prediction of ischemic stroke: the Strong Heart Study.

Karas Maria G MG Devereux Richard B RB Wiebers David O DO Whisnant Jack P JP Best Lyle G LG Lee Elisa T ET Howard Barbara V BV Roman Mary J MJ Umans Jason G JG Kizer Jorge R JR

Stroke 20111229 3

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>American Indians have high rates of stroke. Improved risk stratification could enhance prevention, but the ability of biochemical and echocardiographic markers of preclinical disease to improve stroke prediction is not well-defined.<h4>Methods</h4>We evaluated such markers as predictors of ischemic stroke in a community-based cohort of American Indians without prevalent cardiovascular or renal disease. Laboratory markers included C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, uri ...[more]

PMID: 22207511

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Project description:Detection of atrial fibrillation after ischemic stroke is challenging due to its paroxysmal nature. We aimed to assess predictors of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation using non-invasive surface ECG and transthoracic echocardiography to select candidates for atrial fibrillation screening.Ischemic stroke patients without documented atrial fibrillation (n?=?110, 67?±?10 years, 40 female) and a control group of age- and gender-matched patients with history of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation prior to stroke (n?=?55, 67?±?10 years, 19 female) comprised the study sample. Using non-invasive ECG monitoring for three weeks, short episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation were detected in 24 of 110 patients (22 %). The standard 12-lead ECG with sinus rhythm at stroke onset was digitally processed and analyzed. Transthoracic echocardiography data were reviewed for these patients.Atrial fibrillation history was independently associated with P terminal force in lead V 1?>?40 mm*ms (OR 4.04 95 % CI 1.34-12.14, p?=?0.013) and left atrial volume index (OR 1.08 95 % CI 1.03-1.13, p?=?0.002; for LAVI?>?40 mL/m2 OR 6.40 95 % CL 1.47-27.91, p?=?0.013). Among patients without atrial fibrillation history, no ECG characteristics were predictive of atrial fibrillation detected after stroke. Left atrial volume index remained an independent predictor of atrial fibrillation detected after stroke (OR 1.09 95 % CI 1.02-1.16, p?=?0.017). A cutoff of <40 mL/m2 had an 84 % negative predictive value for ruling out atrial fibrillation on ambulatory monitoring with a sensitivity of 50 % and a specificity of 86 %.In a post hoc analysis, left atrial dilatation assessed by left atrial volume index independently predicted atrial fibrillation after stroke in patients without prior atrial fibrillation history, while the other clinical or ECG markers were not predictive of atrial fibrillation detected early after ischemic stroke.This study is a post hoc analysis from the prospective case-control study registered in December 2011, ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01325545 .

Dataset Information

Incremental value of biochemical and echocardiographic measures in prediction of ischemic stroke: the Strong Heart Study.

Publications

Incremental value of biochemical and echocardiographic measures in prediction of ischemic stroke: the Strong Heart Study.

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