Dataset Information

Association of pretransplant serum phosphorus with posttransplant outcomes.

ABSTRACT:

Background and objectives

Serum phosphorus levels are associated with mortality, cardiovascular disease, and renal function loss in individuals with and without chronic kidney disease. The association of pretransplant serum phosphorus levels with transplant outcomes is not clear.

Design, setting, participants, & measurements

Data of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) up to June 2007 were linked to the database (2001 through 2006) of one of the U.S.-based large dialysis organizations (DaVita). The selected 9384 primary kidney recipients were divided into five groups according to pretransplant serum phosphorus levels (mg/dl): <3.5, 3.5 to <5.5 (reference group), 5.5 to <7.5, 7.5 to <9.5, and ?9.5. Unadjusted and multivariate adjusted risks for transplant outcomes were compared.

Results

Patients were 48 ± 14 years old and included 37% women and 27% African Americans. After multivariate adjustment, all-cause and cardiovascular death hazard ratios were 2.44 (95% confidence interval: 1.28 to 4.65) and 3.63 (1.13 to 11.64), respectively, in recipients in the ?9.5 group; allograft loss hazard ratios were 1.42 (1.04 to 1.95) and 2.36 (1.33 to 4.17) in recipients with 7.5 to >9.5 and ?9.5, respectively. No significant association with delayed graft function was found.

Conclusions

Pretransplant phosphorus levels 7.5 to <9.5 mg/dl and ?9.5 mg/dl were associated with increased risk of functional graft failure and increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths, respectively, when compared with 3.5 to <5.5 mg/dl. Additional studies are needed to examine whether more aggressive control of pretransplant serum phosphorus may improve posttransplant outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Sampaio MS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3359573 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Association of pretransplant serum phosphorus with posttransplant outcomes.

Sampaio Marcelo S MS Molnar Miklos Z MZ Kovesdy Csaba P CP Mehrotra Rajnish R Mucsi Istvan I Sim John J JJ Krishnan Mahesh M Nissenson Allen R AR Kalantar-Zadeh Kamyar K

Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN 20110929 11

<h4>Background and objectives</h4>Serum phosphorus levels are associated with mortality, cardiovascular disease, and renal function loss in individuals with and without chronic kidney disease. The association of pretransplant serum phosphorus levels with transplant outcomes is not clear.<h4>Design, setting, participants, & measurements</h4>Data of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) up to June 2007 were linked to the database (2001 through 2006) of one of the U.S.-based large ...[more]

PMID: 21959597

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Project description:BackgroundThe scarcity of grafts available necessitates a system that considers expected posttransplant survival, in addition to pretransplant mortality as estimated by the MELD. So far, however, conventional linear techniques have failed to achieve sufficient accuracy in posttransplant outcome prediction. In this study, we aim to develop a pretransplant predictive model for liver recipients' survival with benign end-stage liver diseases (BESLD) by a nonlinear method based on pretransplant characteristics, and compare its performance with a BESLD-specific prognostic model (MELD) and a general-illness severity model (the sequential organ failure assessment score, or SOFA score).Methodology/principal findingsWith retrospectively collected data on 360 recipients receiving deceased-donor transplantation for BESLD between February 1999 and August 2009 in the west China hospital of Sichuan university, we developed a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network to predict one-year and two-year survival probability after transplantation. The performances of the MLP, SOFA, and MELD were assessed by measuring both calibration ability and discriminative power, with Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic analysis, respectively. By the forward stepwise selection, donor age and BMI; serum concentration of HB, Crea, ALB, TB, ALT, INR, Na(+); presence of pretransplant diabetes; dialysis prior to transplantation, and microbiologically proven sepsis were identified to be the optimal input features. The MLP, employing 18 input neurons and 12 hidden neurons, yielded high predictive accuracy, with c-statistic of 0.91 (P<0.001) in one-year and 0.88 (P<0.001) in two-year prediction. The performances of SOFA and MELD were fairly poor in prognostic assessment, with c-statistics of 0.70 and 0.66, respectively, in one-year prediction, and 0.67 and 0.65 in two-year prediction.Conclusions/significanceThe posttransplant prognosis is a multidimensional nonlinear problem, and the MLP can achieve significantly high accuracy than SOFA and MELD scores in posttransplant survival prediction. The pattern recognition methodologies like MLP hold promise for solving posttransplant outcome prediction.

Project description:Hypo- and hyperphosphatemia have each been associated with increased mortality in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. There has not been previous evaluation of a differential relationship between serum phosphorus level and death risk across varying age groups in MHD patients.In a 6-year cohort of 107,817 MHD patients treated in a large dialysis organization, we examined the association between serum phosphorus levels with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality within 5 age categories (15 to <45, 45 to <65, 65 to <70, 70 to <75, and ?75 years old) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for case-mix covariates and malnutrition inflammation complex syndrome (MICS) surrogates.All-cause and cardiovascular mortality.The overall mean age of the cohort was 60 ± 16 years, among whom there were 45% women, 35% Blacks, and 58% diabetics. The time-averaged serum phosphorus level (mean ± SD) within each age category was 6.26 ± 1.4, 5.65 ± 1.2, 5.26 ± 1.1, 5.11 ± 1.0, and 4.88 ± 1.0 mg/dL, respectively (P for trend <.001). Hyperphosphatemia (>5.5 mg/dL) was consistently associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks across all age categories, including after adjustment for case-mix and MICS-related covariates. In fully adjusted models, a low serum phosphorus level (<3.5 mg/dL) was associated with increased all-cause mortality only in elderly MHD patients ?65 years old (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.21 [1.07-1.37], 1.13 [1.02-1.25], and 1.28 [1.2-1.37] for patients 65 to <70, 70 to <75, and ?75 years old, respectively), but not in younger patients (<65 years old). A similar differential cardiovascular mortality risk for low serum phosphorus levels between old and young age groups was observed.The association between hyperphosphatemia and mortality is similar across all age groups of MHD patients, whereas hypophosphatemia is associated with increased mortality only in elderly MHD patients. Preventing very low serum phosphorus levels in elderly dialysis patients may be associated with better outcomes, which needs to be examined in future studies.

Project description:Background and objectivesHyperphosphatemia in kidney transplant recipients has been shown to predict poorer graft and patient survival. However, studies examining hypophosphatemia are scarce.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsTo evaluate the association of serum phosphorus level with patient and graft survival, we performed a retrospective multicenter cohort study. Between January of 1997 and August of 2012, 2786 kidney transplant recipients (41.7±11.4 years; 59.3% men; 73.5% living donors; 26.1% with diabetes; 3.8% with prior history of cardiovascular disease) were classified into seven groups according to serum phosphorus levels 1 year after transplantation, with intervals of 0.5 mg/dl (lowest group, <2.5 mg/dl; highest group, ≥5.0 mg/dl; reference group, 3.5-3.99 mg/dl). Survival analysis was performed by defining baseline time point as 1 year after transplantation.ResultsDuring median follow-up of 78.5 months, 60 patient deaths and 194 cases of graft loss occurred. In multivariate analysis, both lowest and highest serum phosphorus groups were associated with higher mortality, compared with the reference group (hazard ratio [HR], 4.82; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.36 to 17.02; P=0.01; and HR, 4.24; 95% CI, 1.07 to 16.84; P=0.04, respectively). Higher death-censored graft loss was observed in the lowest and highest groups (HR, 3.32; 95% CI, 1.42 to 7.79; P=0.01; and HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.32 to 6.49; P=0.01, respectively), despite eGFR exhibiting no difference between the lowest group and reference group (65.4±19.3 versus 61.9±16.7 ml/min per 1.73 m2; P=0.33). Moreover, serum phosphorus showed a U-shape association with patient mortality and graft failure in restricted cubic spline curve analysis.ConclusionsSerum phosphorus level 1 year after transplantation exhibits a U-shape association with death-censored graft failure and patient mortality in kidney transplant patients characterized by relatively high rate of living donor transplant and low incidence of diabetes and prior cardiovascular disease compared with Western countries.

Dataset Information

Association of pretransplant serum phosphorus with posttransplant outcomes.

Background and objectives

Design, setting, participants, & measurements

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Association of pretransplant serum phosphorus with posttransplant outcomes.

Similar Datasets

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