Dataset Information

Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology.

ABSTRACT: Serological studies are the gold standard method to estimate influenza infection attack rates (ARs) in human populations. In a common protocol, blood samples are collected before and after the epidemic in a cohort of individuals; and a rise in haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody titers during the epidemic is considered as a marker of infection. Because of inherent measurement errors, a 2-fold rise is usually considered as insufficient evidence for infection and seroconversion is therefore typically defined as a 4-fold rise or more. Here, we revisit this widely accepted 70-year old criterion. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo data augmentation model to quantify measurement errors and reconstruct the distribution of latent true serological status in a Vietnamese 3-year serological cohort, in which replicate measurements were available. We estimate that the 1-sided probability of a 2-fold error is 9.3% (95% Credible Interval, CI: 3.3%, 17.6%) when antibody titer is below 10 but is 20.2% (95% CI: 15.9%, 24.0%) otherwise. After correction for measurement errors, we find that the proportion of individuals with 2-fold rises in antibody titers was too large to be explained by measurement errors alone. Estimates of ARs vary greatly depending on whether those individuals are included in the definition of the infected population. A simulation study shows that our method is unbiased. The 4-fold rise case definition is relevant when aiming at a specific diagnostic for individual cases, but the justification is less obvious when the objective is to estimate ARs. In particular, it may lead to large underestimates of ARs. Determining which biological phenomenon contributes most to 2-fold rises in antibody titers is essential to assess bias with the traditional case definition and offer improved estimates of influenza ARs.

SUBMITTER: Cauchemez S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3521724 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology.

Cauchemez Simon S Horby Peter P Fox Annette A Mai Le Quynh le Q Thanh Le Thi le T Thai Pham Quang PQ Hoa Le Nguyen Minh le NM Hien Nguyen Tran NT Ferguson Neil M NM

PLoS pathogens 20121213 12

Serological studies are the gold standard method to estimate influenza infection attack rates (ARs) in human populations. In a common protocol, blood samples are collected before and after the epidemic in a cohort of individuals; and a rise in haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody titers during the epidemic is considered as a marker of infection. Because of inherent measurement errors, a 2-fold rise is usually considered as insufficient evidence for infection and seroconversion is therefore ...[more]

PMID: 23271967

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Project description:BackgroundMany complex random networks have been found to be scale-free. Existing literature on scale-free networks has rarely considered potential false positive and false negative links in the observed networks, especially in biological networks inferred from high-throughput experiments. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of these measurement errors on the topology of the observed networks.ResultsThis article addresses the impact of erroneous links on network topological inference and explores possible error mechanisms for scale-free networks with an emphasis on Saccharomyces cerevisiae protein interaction networks. We study this issue by both theoretical derivations and simulations. We show that the ignorance of erroneous links in network analysis may lead to biased estimates of the scale parameter and recommend robust estimators in such scenarios. Possible error mechanisms of yeast protein interaction networks are explored by comparisons between real data and simulated data.ConclusionOur studies show that, in the presence of erroneous links, the connectivity distribution of scale-free networks is still scale-free for the middle range connectivities, but can be greatly distorted for low and high connecitivities. It is more appropriate to use robust estimators such as the least trimmed mean squares estimator to estimate the scale parameter gamma under such circumstances. Moreover, we show by simulation studies that the scale-free property is robust to some error mechanisms but untenable to others. The simulation results also suggest that different error mechanisms may be operating in the yeast protein interaction networks produced from different data sources. In the MIPS gold standard protein interaction data, there appears to be a high rate of false negative links, and the false negative and false positive rates are more or less constant across proteins with different connectivities. However, the error mechanism of yeast two-hybrid data may be very different, where the overall false negative rate is low and the false negative rates tend to be higher for links involving proteins with more interacting partners.

Dataset Information

Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology.

Publications

Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology.

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