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Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus.

ABSTRACT: Antibodies testing in the coronavirus era is frequently promoted, but the underlying statistics behind their validation has come under more scrutiny in recent weeks. We provide calculations, interpretations, and plots of positive and negative predictive values under a variety of scenarios. Prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity are estimated within ranges of values from researchers and antibodies manufacturers. Illustrative examples are highlighted, and interactive plots are provided in the Supplementary Information. Implications are discussed for society overall and across diverse locations with different levels of disease burden. Specifically, the proportion of positive serology tests that are false can differ drastically from up to 3%-88% for people from different places with different proportions of infected people in the populations while the false negative rate is typically under 10%.

SUBMITTER: Brownstein NC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7943825 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus.

Brownstein Naomi C NC Chen Yian Ann YA

Scientific reports 20210309 1

Antibodies testing in the coronavirus era is frequently promoted, but the underlying statistics behind their validation has come under more scrutiny in recent weeks. We provide calculations, interpretations, and plots of positive and negative predictive values under a variety of scenarios. Prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity are estimated within ranges of values from researchers and antibodies manufacturers. Illustrative examples are highlighted, and interactive plots are provided in the Su ...[more]

PMID: 33750810

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Project description:IntroductionThe significance of difficult or failed tracheal intubation following induction is a well-recognized cause of morbidity and mortality in anesthetic practice. Nevertheless, the need to predict potentially difficult tracheal intubation has received a little attention. During routine anesthesia, the incidence of difficult tracheal intubation has been estimated at 1.5%-8% of general anesthetics. Difficulties in intubation have been associated with serious complications, such as brain damage or death, particularly when failed intubation has occurred. Occasionally, in a patient with a difficult airway, the anesthetist is faced with the situation where mask ventilation proves difficult or impossible. This is one of the most critical emergencies that may be faced in the practice of anesthesia. If the anesthetist can predict which patients are likely to prove difficult to intubate, he/she may reduce the risks of anesthesia considerably. In Ethiopia, there are no data on the magnitude of difficult laryngoscopic tracheal intubation and no standard guidelines for preoperative tests. The main concern of this study was to provide information on the magnitude of difficult laryngoscopic intubation and to determine valuable preoperative tests to predict difficult laryngoscopy and intubation in patients with apparently normal airways which can help anesthetists to improve preoperative airway assessment and contribute to decrease anesthesia-related morbidity and mortality.ObjectiveThe main objective of this study was to assess the magnitude and predictive values of preoperative tests for difficult laryngoscopy and intubation, among surgical patients who underwent elective surgery under general anesthesia with endotracheal intubation in Tikur Anbessa Hospital from February 1 to March 30, 2016.Study designA facility-based cross-sectional study design was used.ResultIn this study, we found the magnitude of difficult laryngoscopy and intubation as 13.6% and 5%, respectively. 33.3% of patients with difficult laryngoscopy were found to be difficult for intubation. Mallampati test, interincisor distance, and thyromental distance were identified to be good preoperative tests to predict difficult laryngoscopic intubation when used in combination.RecommendationWe recommend anesthesia professionals to use combination of MMC/TMD/IID for their routine preoperative airway assessment.

Dataset Information

Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus.

Publications

Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus.

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