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Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As there are limited patients for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia trials, it is important that statistical methodologies in Phase II efficiently select regimens for subsequent evaluation in larger-scale Phase III trials.

Methods

We propose the screened selection design (SSD), which is a practical multi-stage, randomised Phase II design for two experimental arms. Activity is first evaluated by applying Simon's two-stage design (1989) on each arm. If both are active, the play-the-winner selection strategy proposed by Simon, Wittes and Ellenberg (SWE) (1985) is applied to select the superior arm. A variant of the design, Modified SSD, also allows the arm with the higher response rates to be recommended only if its activity rate is greater by a clinically-relevant value. The operating characteristics are explored via a simulation study and compared to a Bayesian Selection approach.

Results

Simulations showed that with the proposed SSD, it is possible to retain the sample size as required in SWE and obtain similar probabilities of selecting the correct superior arm of at least 90%; with the additional attractive benefit of reducing the probability of selecting ineffective arms. This approach is comparable to a Bayesian Selection Strategy. The Modified SSD performs substantially better than the other designs in selecting neither arm if the underlying rates for both arms are desirable but equivalent, allowing for other factors to be considered in the decision making process. Though its probability of correctly selecting a superior arm might be reduced, it still performs reasonably well. It also reduces the probability of selecting an inferior arm.

Conclusions

SSD provides an easy to implement randomised Phase II design that selects the most promising treatment that has shown sufficient evidence of activity, with available R codes to evaluate its operating characteristics.

SUBMITTER: Yap C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3726070 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

Yap Christina C Pettitt Andrew A Billingham Lucinda L

BMC medical research methodology 20130703

<h4>Background</h4>As there are limited patients for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia trials, it is important that statistical methodologies in Phase II efficiently select regimens for subsequent evaluation in larger-scale Phase III trials.<h4>Methods</h4>We propose the screened selection design (SSD), which is a practical multi-stage, randomised Phase II design for two experimental arms. Activity is first evaluated by applying Simon's two-stage design (1989) on each arm. If both are active, the pl ...[more]

PMID: 23819695

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Project description:BackgroundMulti-Arm Multi-Stage designs aim at comparing several new treatments to a common reference, in order to select or drop any treatment arm to move forward when such evidence already exists based on interim analyses. We redesigned a Bayesian adaptive design initially proposed for dose-finding, focusing our interest in the comparison of multiple experimental drugs to a control on a binary criterion measure.MethodsWe redesigned a phase II clinical trial that randomly allocates patients across three (one control and two experimental) treatment arms to assess dropping decision rules. We were interested in dropping any arm due to futility, either based on historical control rate (first rule) or comparison across arms (second rule), and in stopping experimental arm due to its ability to reach a sufficient response rate (third rule), using the difference of response probabilities in Bayes binomial trials between the treated and control as a measure of treatment benefit. Simulations were then conducted to investigate the decision operating characteristics under a variety of plausible scenarios, as a function of the decision thresholds.ResultsOur findings suggest that one experimental treatment was less efficient than the control and could have been dropped from the trial based on a sample of approximately 20 instead of 40 patients. In the simulation study, stopping decisions were reached sooner for the first rule than for the second rule, with close mean estimates of response rates and small bias. According to the decision threshold, the mean sample size to detect the required 0.15 absolute benefit ranged from 63 to 70 (rule 3) with false negative rates of less than 2 % (rule 1) up to 6 % (rule 2). In contrast, detecting a 0.15 inferiority in response rates required a sample size ranging on average from 23 to 35 (rules 1 and 2, respectively) with a false positive rate ranging from 3.6 to 0.6 % (rule 3).ConclusionAdaptive trial design is a good way to improve clinical trials. It allows removing ineffective drugs and reducing the trial sample size, while maintaining unbiased estimates. Decision thresholds can be set according to predefined fixed error decision rates.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01342692 .

Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies have identified racial and ethnic disparities in childhood acute lymphocytic leukaemia survival. We aimed to establish whether disparities persist in contemporaneous cohorts and, if present, are attributable to differences in leukaemia biology or insurance status.MethodsPatients with newly diagnosed acute lymphocytic leukaemia in inpatient and outpatient centres in the USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, aged 0-30 years, who had race or ethnicity data available, enrolled on eight completed Children's Oncology Group trials (NCT00103285, NCT00075725, NCT00408005, NCT01190930, NCT02883049, NCT02112916, NCT02828358, and NCT00557193) were included in this secondary analysis. Race and ethnicity were categorised as non-Hispanic White, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, and non-Hispanic other. Event-free survival and overall survival were compared across race and ethnicity groups. The relative contribution of clinical and biological disease prognosticators and insurance status was examined through multivariable regression models, both among the entire cohort and among those with B-cell lineage versus T-cell lineage disease.FindingsBetween Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2019, 24 979 eligible children, adolescents, and young adults with acute lymphocytic leukaemia were enrolled, of which 21 152 had race or ethnicity data available. 11 849 (56·0%) were male and 9303 (44·0%) were female. Non-Hispanic White patients comprised the largest racial or ethnic group (13 872 [65·6%]), followed by Hispanic patients (4354 [20·6%]), non-Hispanic Black patients (1517 [7·2%]), non-Hispanic Asian (n=1071 [5·1%]), and non-Hispanic other (n=338 [1·6%]). 5-year event-free survival was 87·4% (95% CI 86·7-88·0%) among non-Hispanic White patients compared with 82·8% (81·4-84·1%; hazard ratio [HR] 1·37, 95% CI 1·26-1·49; p<0·0001) among Hispanic patients and 81·8% (79·3-84·0; HR 1·45, 1·28-1·65; p<0·0001) among non-Hispanic Black patients. Non-hispanic Asian patients had a 5-year event-free survival of 88·1% (95% CI 85·5-90·3%) and non-Hispanic other patients had a survival of 82·8% (76·4-87·6%). Inferior event-free survival among Hispanic patients was substantially attenuated by disease prognosticators and insurance status (HR decreased from 1·37 [1·26-1·49; p<0·0001] to 1·11 [1·00-1·22; p=0·045]). The increased risk among non-Hispanic Black patients was minimally attenuated (HR 1·45 [1·28-1·65; p<0·0001] to 1·32 [1·14-1·52; p<0·0001]). 5-year overall survival was 93·6% (91·5-95·1%) in non-Hispanic Asian patients, 93·3% (92·8-93·7%) in non-Hispanic White patients, 89·9% (88·7-90·9%) in Hispanic, 89·7% (87·6-91·4%) in non-Hispanic Black patients, 88·9% (83·2-92·7%) in non-Hispanic other patients. Disparities in overall survival were wider than event-free survival (eg, among non-Hispanic other patients, the HR for event-free survival was 1·43 [1·10-1·85] compared with 1·74 [1·27-2·40] for overall survival). Disparities were restricted to patients with B-cell acute lymphocytic leukaemia, no differences in event-free survival or overall survival were seen in the T-cell acute lymphocytic leukaemia group.InterpretationSubstantial disparities in outcome for B-cell acute lymphocytic leukaemia persist by race and ethnicity, but are not observed in T-cell acute lymphocytic leukaemia. Future studies of relapsed patients, access to and quality of care, and other potential aspects of structural racism are warranted to inform interventions aimed at dismantling racial and ethnic disparities.FundingNational Cancer Institute and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundGiven the inherent challenges of conducting randomized phase III trials in older cancer patients, single-arm phase II trials which assess the feasibility of a treatment that has already been shown to be effective in a younger population may provide a compelling alternative. Such an approach would need to evaluate treatment feasibility based on a composite endpoint that combines multiple clinical dimensions and to stratify older patients as fit or frail to account for the heterogeneity of the study population to recommend an appropriate treatment approach. In this context, stratified adaptive two-stage designs for binary or composite endpoints, initially developed for biomarker studies, allow to include two subgroups whilst maintaining competitive statistical performances. In practice, heterogeneity may indeed affect more than one dimension and incorporating co-primary endpoints, which independently assess each individual clinical dimension, would therefore appear quite pertinent. The current paper presents a novel phase II design for co-primary endpoints which takes into account the heterogeneity of a population. METHODS: We developed a stratified adaptive Bryant & Day design based on the Jones et al. and Parashar et al. algorithm. This two-stage design allows to jointly assess two dimensions (e.g. activity and toxicity) in two different subgroups. The operating characteristics of this new design were evaluated using examples and simulation comparisons with the Bryant & Day design in the context where the study population is stratified according to a pre-defined criterion.ResultsSimulation results demonstrated that the new design minimized the expected and maximum sample sizes as compared to parallel Bryant & Day designs (one in each subgroup), whilst controlling type I error rates and maintaining a competitive statistical power as well as a high probability of detecting heterogeneity.ConclusionsIn a heterogeneous population, this two-stage stratified adaptive phase II design provides a useful alternative to classical one and allows to identify a subgroup of interest without dramatically increasing sample size. As heterogeneity is not limited to older populations, this new design may also be relevant to other study populations such as children or adolescents and young adults or the development of targeted therapies based on a biomarker.

Dataset Information

Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

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