Dataset Information

Evidence of telescoping in regular smoking onset age.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

We examined the evidence of telescoping bias in self-reports of regular smoking onset age. Since the exact year of the onset was not available, the discrepancy (termed shift) in self-reports was explored. The study was targeted at establishing the relationships between the prevalence and the magnitude of shifting and respondent and survey characteristics and identifying the key factors contributing to forward and backward shifting.

Methods

The 2002-2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey was administered using phone and in-person interviews to the same respondents in 2002 and 2003. The regular smoking onset age, reported by current and former smokers during both years, was used. All statistical analyses incorporated replicate weights to adjust for the complex survey design.

Results

In our sample, about 31.6% (31.8%) of respondents forwardly (backwardly) shifted the smoking onset age, with the mean magnitude of discrepancy about 2.7 years (both directions). The elapsed time since the onset was shown to be the most important considered predictor of prevalence of shifting. The prevalence of forward (backward) shifting tends to increase (decrease) as elapsed time increases. Furthermore, the discrepancy in forwardly shifted responses tends to increase, on average, with elapsed time.

Conclusions

The findings indicate that both forward and backward shifting may be prevalent in reports on smoking onset age. The extent of shifting depends on elapsed time since the onset (and therefore, the respondent's age) and other respondent and survey characteristics. The findings are consistent with presence of both forward and backward telescoping biases.

SUBMITTER: Bright BC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4015091 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionTobacco smoking is the leading cause of preventable death globally. Smoking quantity, measured in cigarettes per day, is influenced both by the age of onset of regular smoking (AOS) and by genetic factors, including a strong effect of the nonsynonymous single-nucleotide polymorphism rs16969968. A previous study by Hartz et al. reported an interaction between these two factors, whereby rs16969968 risk allele carriers who started smoking earlier showed increased risk for heavy smoking compared with those who started later. This finding has yet to be replicated in a large, independent sample.MethodsWe performed a preregistered, direct replication attempt of the rs16969968 × AOS interaction on smoking quantity in 128 383 unrelated individuals from the UK Biobank, meta-analyzed across ancestry groups. We fit statistical association models mirroring the original publication as well as formal interaction tests on multiple phenotypic and analytical scales.ResultsWe replicated the main effects of rs16969968 and AOS on cigarettes per day but failed to replicate the interaction using previous methods. Nominal significance of the rs16969968 × AOS interaction term depended strongly on the scale of analysis and the particular phenotype, as did associations stratified by early/late AOS. No interaction tests passed genome-wide correction (α = 5e-8), and all estimated interaction effect sizes were much smaller in magnitude than previous estimates.ConclusionsWe failed to replicate the strong rs16969968 × AOS interaction effect previously reported. If such gene-moderator interactions influence complex traits, they likely depend on scale of measurement, and current biobanks lack the power to detect significant genome-wide associations given the minute effect sizes expected.ImplicationsWe failed to replicate the strong rs16969968 × AOS interaction effect on smoking quantity previously reported. If such gene-moderator interactions influence complex traits, current biobanks lack the power to detect significant genome-wide associations given the minute effect sizes expected. Furthermore, many potential interaction effects are likely to depend on the scale of measurement employed.