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The ROKS nomogram for predicting a second symptomatic stone episode.

ABSTRACT: Most patients with first-time kidney stones undergo limited evaluations, and few receive preventive therapy. A prediction tool for the risk of a second kidney stone episode is needed to optimize treatment strategies. We identified adult first-time symptomatic stone formers residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1984 to 2003 and manually reviewed their linked comprehensive medical records through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Clinical characteristics in the medical record before or up to 90 days after the first stone episode were evaluated as predictors for symptomatic recurrence. A nomogram was developed from a multivariable model based on these characteristics. There were 2239 first-time adult kidney stone formers with evidence of a passed, obstructing, or infected stone causing pain or gross hematuria. Symptomatic recurrence occurred in 707 of these stone formers through 2012 (recurrence rates at 2, 5, 10, and 15 years were 11%, 20%, 31%, and 39%, respectively). A parsimonious model had the following risk factors for recurrence: younger age, male sex, white race, family history of stones, prior asymptomatic stone on imaging, prior suspected stone episode, gross hematuria, nonobstructing (asymptomatic) stone on imaging, symptomatic renal pelvic or lower-pole stone on imaging, no ureterovesicular junction stone on imaging, and uric acid stone composition. Ten-year recurrence rates varied from 12% to 56% between the first and fifth quintiles of nomogram score. The Recurrence of Kidney Stone nomogram identifies kidney stone formers at greatest risk for a second symptomatic episode. Such individuals may benefit from medical intervention and be good candidates for prevention trials.

SUBMITTER: Rule AD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4243346 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The ROKS nomogram for predicting a second symptomatic stone episode.

Rule Andrew D AD Lieske John C JC Li Xujian X Melton L Joseph LJ Krambeck Amy E AE Bergstralh Eric J EJ

Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN 20140807 12

Most patients with first-time kidney stones undergo limited evaluations, and few receive preventive therapy. A prediction tool for the risk of a second kidney stone episode is needed to optimize treatment strategies. We identified adult first-time symptomatic stone formers residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1984 to 2003 and manually reviewed their linked comprehensive medical records through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Clinical characteristics in the medical record before or up ...[more]

PMID: 25104803

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Project description:ObjectivesTo develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management.Subject/patientsA 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multi-centre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast CT-KUB.MethodsSSP was defined as the 'absence of the need for intervention'. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest AIC) in a subset from 2009-2015 (n=1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016-2017 (n=789).ResultsOf the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). Mean age (±[SD]) was 47 (±14.7) years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (OR 0.8, 95%CI 0.64-1.01, p=0.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95%CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95%CI 0.59-1.05, p=0.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95%CI 0.97-1.75, p =0.08), stone size >5-7mm (OR 0.2, 95%CI 0.16-0.25, p<0.0001), stone size >7mm (OR 0.11, 95%CI 0.08-0.15, p<0.001), middle ureter stone position (OR 0.59, 95%CI 0.43-0.81, p=0.001), upper ureter stone position (OR 0.31, 95%CI 0.25-0.39, p<0.001) ), medical expulsive therapy use (OR 1.36, 95%CI 1.1 - 1.67, p = 0.001), oral NSAID use (OR 1.3, 95%CI 0.99 - 1.71, p=0.06), and rectal NSAID use (OR1.17, 95%CI 0.9 - 1.53, p=0.24) remained. Concordance-statistic (C-statistic) was 0.77 (95%CI 0.75 - 0.80) and a nomogram was developed based on these.ConclusionThe presented nomogram is available to use as an online calculator via www.BURSTurology.com and could allow clinicians and patients to make a more informed decision on pursuing conservative management versus early intervention.

Project description:Background and objectivesPrior work has suggested a higher risk of hypertension in kidney stone formers but lacked disease validation and adjustment for potential confounders. Certain types of stone formers may also be at higher risk of hypertension.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsIn our study, incident symptomatic stone formers in Olmsted County from 2000 to 2011 were manually validated by chart review and age and sex matched to Olmsted County controls. We followed up patients through November 20, 2015. Hypertension was also validated by manual chart review, and the risk of hypertension in stone formers compared with controls was assessed both univariately and after adjusting for comorbidities. The risk of hypertension among different subtypes of stone formers was also evaluated.ResultsAmong 3023 coded stone formers from 2000 to 2011, a total of 1515 were validated and matched to 1515 controls (mean age was 45 years old, and 56% were men). After excluding those with baseline hypertension (20% of stone formers and 18% of controls), 154 stone formers and 110 controls developed hypertension. Median follow-up time was 7.8 years in stone formers and 9.6 years in controls. Stone formers were found to have a higher risk of hypertension compared with controls (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.18 to 1.92), even after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, serum creatinine, CKD, diabetes, gout, coronary artery disease, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, and alcohol abuse (hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.21). Results were similar after excluding patients who were ever on a thiazide diuretic (hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 2.38). Stone composition, radiographic stone burden, number of subsequent stone events, and stone removal surgeries were not associated with hypertension (P>0.05 for all).ConclusionsThe risk of hypertension was higher after the first symptomatic kidney stone event. However, kidney stone severity, type, and treatment did not associate with hypertension.

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The ROKS nomogram for predicting a second symptomatic stone episode.

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The ROKS nomogram for predicting a second symptomatic stone episode.

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