Dataset Information

Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.

Objectives

We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations.

Methods

Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates.

Results

In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.

Conclusions

Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed.

SUBMITTER: Vardoulakis S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4256046 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

Vardoulakis Sotiris S Dear Keith K Hajat Shakoor S Heaviside Clare C Eggen Bernd B McMichael Anthony J AJ

Environmental health perspectives 20140915 12

<h4>Background</h4>High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.<h4>Objectives</h4>We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations.<h4>Methods</h4>Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ...[more]

PMID: 25222967

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Project description:AIMS:To estimate predictors of time to smoking relapse and test if prediction varied by quit duration. DESIGN:Longitudinal cohort data from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country survey with annual follow up collected between 2002 and 2015. SETTING:Canada, United States, United Kingdom and Australia. PARTICIPANTS:A total of 9171 eligible adult smokers who had made at least one quit attempt during the study period. MEASUREMENTS:Time to relapse was the main outcome. Predictor variables included pre-quit baseline measures of nicotine dependence, smoking and quitting-related motivations, quitting capacity and social influence, and also two post-quit measures, use of stop-smoking medications and quit duration (1-7 days, 8-14 days, 15-31 days, 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-12 months, 1-2 years and 2+ years), along with socio-demographics. FINDINGS:All factors were predictive of relapse within the first 6 months of quitting but only wanting to quit, quit intentions and number of friends who smoke were still predictive of relapse in the 6-12-month period of quitting [hazard ratios (HR) = 1.20, P < 0.05; 1.13, P < 0.05; and 1.21, P < 0.001, respectively]. Number of friends smoking was the only remaining predictor of relapse in the 1-2 years quit period (HR = 1.19, P = 0.001) with none predictive beyond the 2-year quit period. Use of stop-smoking medications during quit attempts was related negatively to relapse during the first 2 weeks of quitting (HR = 0.71-0.84), but related positively to relapse in the 1-6-month quit period (HR = 1.29-1.54). Predictive effects of all factors showed significant interaction with quit duration except for perceiving smoking as an important part of life, prematurely stubbing out a cigarette and wanting to quit. CONCLUSIONS:Among adult smokers in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia, factors associated with smoking relapse differ between the early and later stages of a quit attempt, suggesting that the determinants of relapse change as a function of abstinence duration.

Dataset Information

Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

Similar Datasets

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