Dataset Information

Predicting absolute risk of type 2 diabetes using age and waist circumference values in an aboriginal Australian community.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To predict in an Australian Aboriginal community, the 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes associated with waist circumference and age on baseline examination.

Method

A sample of 803 diabetes-free adults (82.3% of the age-eligible population) from baseline data of participants collected from 1992 to 1998 were followed-up for up to 20 years till 2012. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of waist circumference and other risk factors, including age, smoking and alcohol consumption status, of males and females on prediction of type 2 diabetes, identified through subsequent hospitalisation data during the follow-up period. The Weibull regression model was used to calculate the absolute risk estimates of type 2 diabetes with waist circumference and age as predictors.

Results

Of 803 participants, 110 were recorded as having developed type 2 diabetes, in subsequent hospitalizations over a follow-up of 12633.4 person-years. Waist circumference was strongly associated with subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with P<0.0001 for both genders and remained statistically significant after adjusting for confounding factors. Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with 1 standard deviation increase in waist circumference were 1.7 (95%CI 1.3 to 2.2) for males and 2.1 (95%CI 1.7 to 2.6) for females. At 45 years of age with baseline waist circumference of 100 cm, a male had an absolute diabetic risk of 10.9%, while a female had a 14.3% risk of the disease.

Conclusions

The constructed model predicts the 10-year absolute diabetes risk in an Aboriginal Australian community. It is simple and easily understood and will help identify individuals at risk of diabetes in relation to waist circumference values. Our findings on the relationship between waist circumference and diabetes on gender will be useful for clinical consultation, public health education and establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginal Australians.

SUBMITTER: Adegbija O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4395219 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Predicting absolute risk of type 2 diabetes using age and waist circumference values in an aboriginal Australian community.

Adegbija Odewumi O Hoy Wendy W Wang Zhiqiang Z

PloS one 20150413 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>To predict in an Australian Aboriginal community, the 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes associated with waist circumference and age on baseline examination.<h4>Method</h4>A sample of 803 diabetes-free adults (82.3% of the age-eligible population) from baseline data of participants collected from 1992 to 1998 were followed-up for up to 20 years till 2012. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of waist circumference and other risk factors, inc ...[more]

PMID: 25876058

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveObesity is the prominent modifiable risk factor known to influence the occurrence and progression of diabetes other than age, and the objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the predictive value of three simple baseline anthropometric indicators of obesity, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-height ratio (WHtR), for the occurrence of diabetes at different time points in the future.MethodsThe study subjects were 12,823 individuals with normoglycemic at baseline who underwent health screening and had measurements of BMI, WC, and WHtR. The outcome of interest was new-onset diabetes during follow-up. Time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves of baseline BMI, WC, and WHtR for predicting the risk of diabetes in the next 2 to 12 years were constructed and their area under the ROC curves (AUCs) and corresponding optimal threshold values were calculated for each time point, which were used to compare the accuracy and stability of the above three indicators for predicting the occurrence of diabetes in different future periods.ResultsDuring a median follow-up period of 7.02 years, with a maximum follow-up of 13 years, 320 new-onset diabetes were recorded. After adjusting for confounders and comparing standardized hazard ratios (HRs), WC was shown to be the best simple anthropometric indicator of obesity reflecting diabetes risk in all models, followed by WHtR. Time-dependent ROC analysis showed that WC had the highest AUC in predicting the occurrence of diabetes in the short term (2-5 years), and WHtR had the highest AUC in predicting the occurrence of diabetes in the medium to long term (6-12 years), while in any time point, both WC and WHtR had higher AUC than BMI in predicting future diabetes. In addition, we found relatively larger fluctuations in the thresholds of BMI and WC for predicting diabetes over time, while the thresholds of WHtR consistently remained between 0.47-0.50; comparatively speaking, WHtR may have greater application value in predicting future diabetes.ConclusionsOur analysis sustained that central obesity is a more important predictor of diabetes, and in clinical practice, we proposed measuring WHtR as a useful tool for predicting future diabetes.

Dataset Information

Predicting absolute risk of type 2 diabetes using age and waist circumference values in an aboriginal Australian community.

Objectives

Method

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting absolute risk of type 2 diabetes using age and waist circumference values in an aboriginal Australian community.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets