Kinetic Estimation of GFR Improves Prediction of Dialysis and Recovery after Kidney Transplantation.
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ABSTRACT: Background
The early prediction of delayed graft function (DGF) would facilitate patient management after kidney transplantation.Methods
In a single-centre retrospective analysis, we investigated kinetic estimated GFR under non-steady-state conditions, KeGFR, in prediction of DGF. KeGFR(sCr) was calculated at 4h, 8h and 12h in 56 recipients of deceased donor kidneys from initial serum creatinine (sCr) concentrations, estimated creatinine production rate, volume of distribution, and the difference between consecutive sCr values. The utility of KeGFR(sCr) for DGF prediction was compared with, sCr, plasma cystatin C (pCysC), and KeGFR(pCysC) similarly derived from pCysC concentrations.Results
At 4h, the KeGFR(sCr) area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for DGF prediction was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56-0.83), while sCr was not useful (AUC 0.56, (CI: 0.41-0.72). Integrated discrimination improvement analysis showed that the KeGFR(sCr) improved a validated clinical prediction model at 4h, 8h, and 12h, increasing the AUC from 0.68 (0.52-0.83) to 0.88 (0.78-0.99) at 12h (p = 0.01). KeGFR(pCysC) also improved DGF prediction. In contrast, sCr provided no improvement at any time point.Conclusions
Calculation of KeGFR from sCr facilitates early prediction of DGF within 4 hours of renal transplantation.
SUBMITTER: Pianta TJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4418565 | biostudies-literature | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Kinetic Estimation of GFR Improves Prediction of Dialysis and Recovery after Kidney Transplantation.
Pianta Timothy J TJ Endre Zoltan H ZH Pickering John W JW Buckley Nicholas A NA Peake Philip W PW
PloS one 20150504 5
<h4>Background</h4>The early prediction of delayed graft function (DGF) would facilitate patient management after kidney transplantation.<h4>Methods</h4>In a single-centre retrospective analysis, we investigated kinetic estimated GFR under non-steady-state conditions, KeGFR, in prediction of DGF. KeGFR(sCr) was calculated at 4h, 8h and 12h in 56 recipients of deceased donor kidneys from initial serum creatinine (sCr) concentrations, estimated creatinine production rate, volume of distribution, a ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundCompared with other kidney replacement therapies, preemptive kidney transplantation (KT) provides better clinical outcomes, reduces mortality, and improves the quality of life of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). However, evidence related to the cost-effectiveness of preemptive living-related KT (LRKT) is limited, especially in low- and middle-income countries, such as Thailand. This study compared the cost-effectiveness of LRKT with those of non-preemptive KT strategies.MethodsCost and clinical data were obtained from adult patients who underwent KT at Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Thailand. A decision tree and Markov model were used to evaluate and compare the lifetime costs and health-related outcomes of LRKT with those of 2 KT strategies: non-preemptive LRKT and non-preemptive deceased donor KT (DDKT). The model's input parameters were sourced from the hospital's database and a systematic review. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Costs are reported in 2020 United States dollars (USD). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.ResultsOf 140 enrolled KT patients, 40 were preemptive LRKT recipients, 50 were non-preemptive LRKT recipients, and the rest were DDKT recipients. There were no significant differences in the baseline demographic data, complications, or rejection rates of the three groups of patients. The average costs per life year gained were $10,647 (preemptive LRKT), $11,708 (non-preemptive LRKT), and $11,486 (DDKT). The QALY gained of the preemptive option was 0.47 compared with the non-preemptive strategies. Preemptive LRKT was the best-buy strategy. The sensitivity analyses indicated that the model was robust. Within all varied ranges of parameters, preemptive LRKT remained cost-saving. The probability of preemptive LRKT being cost-saving was 79.4%. Compared with non-preemptive DDKT, non-preemptive LRKT was not cost-effective at the current Thai willingness-to-pay threshold of $5113/QALY gained.ConclusionsPreemptive LRKT is a cost-saving strategy compared with non-preemptive KT strategies. Our findings should be considered during evidence-based policy development to promote preemptive LRKT among adults with ESKD in Thailand.
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