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A Joint Model for the Kinetics of CTC Count and PSA Concentration During Treatment in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Assessment of treatment efficacy in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is limited by frequent nonmeasurable bone metastases. The count of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) is a promising surrogate marker that may replace the widely used prostate-specific antigen (PSA). The purpose of this study was to quantify the dynamic relationships between the longitudinal kinetics of these markers during treatment in patients with mCRPC. Data from 223 patients with mCRPC treated by chemotherapy and/or hormonotherapy were analyzed for up to 6 months of treatment. A semimechanistic model was built, combining the following several pharmacometric advanced features: (1) Kinetic-Pharmacodynamic (K-PD) compartments for treatments (chemotherapy and hormonotherapy); (2) a latent variable linking both marker kinetics; (3) modeling of CTC kinetics with a cell lifespan model; and (4) a negative binomial distribution for the CTC random sampling. Linked with survival, this model would potentially be useful for predicting treatment efficacy during drug development or for therapeutic adjustment in treated patients.

SUBMITTER: Wilbaux M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4452933 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAbiraterone acetate (abiraterone) prolongs overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). This study's objective was to retrospectively identify factors associated with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response to abiraterone and validate them in an independent cohort. We hypothesized that the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), thought to be an indirect manifestation of tumor-promoting inflammation, may be associated with response to abiraterone.Patients and methodsAll patients receiving abiraterone at the Princess Margaret (PM) Cancer Centre up to March 2013 were reviewed. The primary end point was confirmed PSA response defined as PSA decline ≥50% below baseline maintained for ≥3 weeks. Potential factors associated with PSA response were analyzed using univariate and multivariable analyses to generate a score, which was then evaluated in an independent cohort from Royal Marsden (RM) NHS foundation.ResultsA confirmed PSA response was observed in 44 out of 108 assessable patients (41%, 95% confidence interval 31%-50%). In univariate analysis, lower pre-abiraterone baseline levels of lactate dehydrogenase, an NLR ≤ 5 and restricted metastatic spread to either bone or lymph nodes were each associated with PSA response. In multivariable analysis, only low NLR and restricted metastatic spread remained statistically significant. A score derived as the sum of these two categorical variables was associated with response to abiraterone (P = 0.007). Logistic regression analysis on an independent validation cohort of 245 patients verified that this score was associated with response to abiraterone (P = 0.003). It was also associated with OS in an exploratory analysis.ConclusionsA composite score of baseline NLR and extent of metastatic spread is associated with PSA response to abiraterone and OS. Our data may help understand the role of systemic inflammation in mCRPC and warrant further research.

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A Joint Model for the Kinetics of CTC Count and PSA Concentration During Treatment in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

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