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The Impact of Different CD4 Cell-Count Monitoring and Switching Strategies on Mortality in HIV-Infected African Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: An Application of Dynamic Marginal Structural Models.

ABSTRACT: In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003-2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continued through 2008. In observational analyses, dynamic marginal structural models on pooled randomized groups were used to estimate survival under different monitoring-frequency and clinical/immunological switching strategies. Assumptions included no direct effect of randomized group on mortality or confounders and no unmeasured confounders which influenced treatment switch and mortality or treatment switch and time-dependent covariates. After 48 weeks of first-line ART, 2,946 individuals contributed 11,351 person-years of follow-up, 625 switches, and 179 deaths. The estimated survival probability after a further 240 weeks for post-48-week switch at the first CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/mm(3) or non-Candida World Health Organization stage 4 event (with CD4 count <250) was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94, 0.97) with 12-weekly CD4 testing, 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with 24-weekly CD4 testing, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) with a single CD4 test at 48 weeks (baseline), and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.94) with no CD4 testing. Comparing randomized groups by 48-week CD4 count, the mortality risk associated with CDM versus LCM was greater in persons with CD4 counts of <100 (hazard ratio = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.3) than in those with CD4 counts of ?100 (hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.8, 1.7; interaction P = 0.04). These findings support a benefit from identifying patients immunologically failing first-line ART at 48 weeks.

SUBMITTER: Ford D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4581589 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Impact of Different CD4 Cell-Count Monitoring and Switching Strategies on Mortality in HIV-Infected African Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: An Application of Dynamic Marginal Structural Models.

Ford Deborah D Robins James M JM Petersen Maya L ML Gibb Diana M DM Gilks Charles F CF Mugyenyi Peter P Grosskurth Heiner H Hakim James J Katabira Elly E Babiker Abdel G AG Walker A Sarah AS

American journal of epidemiology 20150826 7

In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003-2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continu ...[more]

PMID: 26316598

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Project description:BackgroundThere is conflicting evidence on the immunologic benefit of treating helminth co-infections ("deworming") in HIV-infected individuals. Several studies have documented reduced viral load and increased CD4 count in antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve individuals after deworming. However, there are a lack of data on the effect of deworming therapy on CD4 count recovery among HIV-infected persons taking ART.Methodology/principal findingsTo estimate the association between empiric deworming therapy and CD4 count after ART initiation, we performed a retrospective observational study among HIV-infected adults on ART at a publicly operated HIV clinic in southwestern Uganda. Subjects were assigned as having received deworming if prescribed an anti-helminthic agent between 7 and 90 days before a CD4 test. To estimate the association between deworming and CD4 count, we fit multivariable regression models and analyzed predictors of CD4 count, using a time-by-interaction term with receipt or non-receipt of deworming. From 1998 to 2009, 5,379 subjects on ART attended 21,933 clinic visits at which a CD4 count was measured. Subjects received deworming prior to 668 (3%) visits. Overall, deworming was not associated with a significant difference in CD4 count in either the first year on ART (? = 42.8; 95% CI, -2.1 to 87.7) or after the first year of ART (? = ?-9.9; 95% CI, -24.1 to 4.4). However, in a sub-analysis by gender, during the first year of ART deworming was associated with a significantly greater rise in CD4 count (? = 63.0; 95% CI, 6.0 to 120.1) in females.Conclusions/significanceEmpiric deworming of HIV-infected individuals on ART conferred no significant generalized benefit on subsequent CD4 count recovery. A significant association was observed exclusively in females and during the initial year on ART. Our findings are consistent with recent studies that failed to demonstrate an immunologic advantage to empirically deworming ART-naïve individuals, but suggest that certain sub-populations may benefit.

Project description:BackgroundViral load (VL) is recommended for monitoring the response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) but is not routinely available in most low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of the study was to determine whether a CD4-based monitoring and switching strategy would provide a similar clinical outcome compared to the standard VL-based strategy in Thailand.Methods and findingsThe Programs for HIV Prevention and Treatment (PHPT-3) non-inferiority randomized clinical trial compared a treatment switching strategy based on CD4-only (CD4) monitoring versus viral-load (VL). Consenting participants were antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected adults (CD4 count 50-250/mm(3)) initiating non-nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based therapy. Randomization, stratified by site (21 public hospitals), was performed centrally after enrollment. Clinicians were unaware of the VL values of patients randomized to the CD4 arm. Participants switched to second-line combination with confirmed CD4 decline >30% from peak (within 200 cells from baseline) in the CD4 arm, or confirmed VL >400 copies/ml in the VL arm. Primary endpoint was clinical failure at 3 years, defined as death, new AIDS-defining event, or CD4 <50 cells/mm(3). The 3-year Kaplan-Meier cumulative risks of clinical failure were compared for non-inferiority with a margin of 7.4%. In the intent to treat analysis, data were censored at the date of death or at last visit. The secondary endpoints were difference in future-drug-option (FDO) score, a measure of resistance profiles, virologic and immunologic responses, and the safety and tolerance of HAART. 716 participants were randomized, 356 to VL monitoring and 360 to CD4 monitoring. At 3 years, 319 participants (90%) in VL and 326 (91%) in CD4 were alive and on follow-up. The cumulative risk of clinical failure was 8.0% (95% CI 5.6-11.4) in VL versus 7.4% (5.1-10.7) in CD4, and the upper-limit of the one-sided 95% CI of the difference was 3.4%, meeting the pre-determined non-inferiority criterion. Probability of switch for study criteria was 5.2% (3.2-8.4) in VL versus 7.5% (5.0-11.1) in CD4 (p=0.097). Median time from treatment initiation to switch was 11.7 months (7.7-19.4) in VL and 24.7 months (15.9-35.0) in CD4 (p=0.001). The median duration of viremia >400 copies/ml at switch was 7.2 months (5.8-8.0) in VL versus 15.8 months (8.5-20.4) in CD4 (p=0.002). FDO scores were not significantly different at time of switch. No adverse events related to the monitoring strategy were reported.ConclusionsThe 3-year rates of clinical failure and loss of treatment options did not differ between strategies although the longer-term consequences of CD4 monitoring would need to be investigated. These results provide reassurance to treatment programs currently based on CD4 monitoring as VL measurement becomes more affordable and feasible in resource-limited settings.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.govNCT00162682 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Project description:BackgroundUpdated World Health Organization guidelines have amplified debate about how resource constraints should impact monitoring strategies for HIV-infected persons on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We estimated the incremental benefit and cost effectiveness of alternative monitoring strategies for east Africans with known HIV infection.MethodsUsing a validated HIV computer simulation based on resource-limited data (USAID and AMPATH) and circumstances (east Africa), we compared alternative monitoring strategies for HIV-infected persons newly started on cART. We evaluated clinical, immunologic and virologic monitoring strategies, including combinations and conditional logic (e.g., only perform virologic testing if immunologic testing is positive). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in units of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), using a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon. Costs were measured in 2008 US dollars, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. We compared the ICER of monitoring strategies with those of other resource-constrained decisions, in particular earlier cART initiation (at CD4 counts of 350 cells/mm3 rather than 200 cells/mm3).ResultsMonitoring strategies employing routine CD4 testing without virologic testing never maximized health benefits, regardless of budget or societal willingness to pay for additional health benefits. Monitoring strategies employing virologic testing conditional upon particular CD4 results delivered the most benefit at willingness-to-pay levels similar to the cost of earlier cART initiation (approximately $2600/QALY). Monitoring strategies employing routine virologic testing alone only maximized health benefits at willingness-to-pay levels (> $4400/QALY) that greatly exceeded the ICER of earlier cART initiation.ConclusionsCD4 testing alone never maximized health benefits regardless of resource limitations. Programmes routinely performing virologic testing but deferring cART initiation may increase health benefits by reallocating monitoring resources towards earlier cART initiation.

Project description:High levels of adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) are necessary for achieving and maintaining optimal virological suppression, as suboptimal adherence leads to therapy failure and disease progression. It is well known that adherence to ART predicts therapy response, but it is unclear whether clinical outcomes of ART predict adherence. To examine the predictive power of current CD4+ T cell count for adherence of HIV-infected individuals to ART, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of 133 Dutch HIV patients with electronically measured adherence. In a multivariate analysis adjusting for a number of sociodemographic and clinical variables, high current CD4+ T cell count (>660 cells/mm3) was most strongly associated with lower adherence to ART (assessed as a continuous variable) during a two-month period immediately following the measurements of variables (P = 0.008). The twice-per-day (versus once-per-day) dosing regimen was also significantly associated with lower adherence (P = 0.014). In a second multivariate analysis aimed at determining the predictors of suboptimal (<100% of the doses taken) adherence, high current CD4+ T cell count was again the strongest independent predictor of suboptimal adherence to ART (P = 0.015), and the twice-per-day dosing regimen remained associated with suboptimal adherence (P = 0.025). The association between suboptimal adherence and virological suppression was significant in patients with high CD4+ T cell counts, but not in patients with low or intermediate CD4+ T cell counts (P = 0.036 and P = 0.52, respectively; P = 0.047 for comparison of the effects of adherence on virological suppression between patients with high vs. low or intermediate CD4+ T cell counts), suggesting that apart from promoting suboptimal adherence, high CD4+ T cell count also strengthens the effect of adherence on virological suppression. Therefore, sustained efforts to emphasize continued adherence are necessary, especially for patients with high CD4+ T cell counts.

Dataset Information

The Impact of Different CD4 Cell-Count Monitoring and Switching Strategies on Mortality in HIV-Infected African Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: An Application of Dynamic Marginal Structural Models.

Publications

The Impact of Different CD4 Cell-Count Monitoring and Switching Strategies on Mortality in HIV-Infected African Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: An Application of Dynamic Marginal Structural Models.

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