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Modelling the global competing risks of a potential interaction between injectable hormonal contraception and HIV risk.

ABSTRACT: Some, but not all, observational studies have suggested an increase in the risk of HIV acquisition for women using injectable hormonal contraception (IHC).We used country-level data to explore the effects of reducing IHC use on the number of HIV infections, the number of live births and the resulting net consequences on AIDS deaths and maternal mortality for each country.High IHC use coincides with high HIV incidence primarily in southern and eastern Africa. If IHC increases the risk of HIV acquisition, this could generate 27 000-130 000 infections per year globally, 87-88% of which occur in this region. Reducing IHC use could result in fewer HIV infections but also a substantial increase in live births and maternal mortality in countries with high IHC use, high birth rates and high maternal mortality: mainly southern and eastern Africa, South-East Asia, and Central and South America. For most countries, the net impact of reducing IHC use on maternal and AIDS-related deaths is dependent on the magnitude of the assumed IHC-HIV interaction.If IHC use increases HIV acquisition risk, reducing IHC could reduce new HIV infections; however, this must be balanced against other important consequences, including unintended pregnancy, which impacts maternal and infant mortality. Unless the true effect size approaches a relative risk of 2.19, it is unlikely that reductions in IHC could result in public health benefit, with the possible exception of those countries in southern Africa with the largest HIV epidemics.

SUBMITTER: Butler AR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4862571 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the global competing risks of a potential interaction between injectable hormonal contraception and HIV risk.

Butler Ailsa R AR Smith Jennifer A JA Polis Chelsea B CB Gregson Simon S Stanton David D Hallett Timothy B TB

AIDS (London, England) 20130101 1

<h4>Background</h4>Some, but not all, observational studies have suggested an increase in the risk of HIV acquisition for women using injectable hormonal contraception (IHC).<h4>Methods</h4>We used country-level data to explore the effects of reducing IHC use on the number of HIV infections, the number of live births and the resulting net consequences on AIDS deaths and maternal mortality for each country.<h4>Results</h4>High IHC use coincides with high HIV incidence primarily in southern and ea ...[more]

PMID: 23014519

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Project description:In a context of high rates of HIV prevalence, concerns over hormonal contraceptive use and the potential for increased risk of HIV acquisition have led to increased attention to counseling messages, particularly for users of the injectable. However, the consequence of adding additional HIV risk messages to family planning counseling sessions was not well understood. This evaluation assessed the effect of providing revised injectable and HIV risk counseling messages on contraceptive knowledge and behavior during a three month pilot intervention. The pilot intervention was conducted September-November 2018 with all eligible family planning clients in ten healthcare facilities located in the Iringa and Njombe regions of Tanzania. Data collection for the evaluation occurred November-December 2018 and included 471 client exit interviews, 26 healthcare provider interviews, and the extraction of service statistics for 12 months prior to the intervention and three months of the intervention. Univariate and bivariate analyses were used to assess quantitative interview data. Thematic qualitative assessment was used to assess qualitative interview data from healthcare providers. Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess changes in the trend of contraceptive uptake. Results indicate that the counseling messages did not cause a decrease in the uptake of injectables (Depo-Provera): 97 percent of interviewed clients received Depo-Provera at their visit; sixty percent reported an intention to use condoms for dual protection. The analysis of service statistics showed no statistical difference in the trend of Depo-Provera uptake between the pre-intervention and intervention periods (p = 0.116). Overall knowledge of counseling messages by clients was good; however only 64.8% of women correctly responded that women at risk of getting HIV can use any method of family planning. Providers' knowledge of the messages was high, though it appears that not all messages were consistently provided during the counseling sessions. The findings from this evaluation provide evidence that complex HIV counseling messages can be implemented in family planning programs in Tanzania, and potentially in other countries that are considering how to better integrate HIV risk messages into family planning counseling.

Project description:BackgroundObservational studies of a putative association between hormonal contraception (HC) and HIV acquisition have produced conflicting results. We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies from sub-Saharan Africa to compare the incidence of HIV infection in women using combined oral contraceptives (COCs) or the injectable progestins depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) or norethisterone enanthate (NET-EN) with women not using HC.Methods and findingsEligible studies measured HC exposure and incident HIV infection prospectively using standardized measures, enrolled women aged 15-49 y, recorded ?15 incident HIV infections, and measured prespecified covariates. Our primary analysis estimated the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) using two-stage random effects meta-analysis, controlling for region, marital status, age, number of sex partners, and condom use. We included 18 studies, including 37,124 women (43,613 woman-years) and 1,830 incident HIV infections. Relative to no HC use, the aHR for HIV acquisition was 1.50 (95% CI 1.24-1.83) for DMPA use, 1.24 (95% CI 0.84-1.82) for NET-EN use, and 1.03 (95% CI 0.88-1.20) for COC use. Between-study heterogeneity was mild (I(2) < 50%). DMPA use was associated with increased HIV acquisition compared with COC use (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.23-1.67) and NET-EN use (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08-1.61). Effect estimates were attenuated for studies at lower risk of methodological bias (compared with no HC use, aHR for DMPA use 1.22, 95% CI 0.99-1.50; for NET-EN use 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.96; and for COC use 0.91, 95% CI 0.73-1.41) compared to those at higher risk of bias (p(interaction) = 0.003). Neither age nor herpes simplex virus type 2 infection status modified the HC-HIV relationship.ConclusionsThis IPD meta-analysis found no evidence that COC or NET-EN use increases women's risk of HIV but adds to the evidence that DMPA may increase HIV risk, underscoring the need for additional safe and effective contraceptive options for women at high HIV risk. A randomized controlled trial would provide more definitive evidence about the effects of hormonal contraception, particularly DMPA, on HIV risk.

Dataset Information

Modelling the global competing risks of a potential interaction between injectable hormonal contraception and HIV risk.

Publications

Modelling the global competing risks of a potential interaction between injectable hormonal contraception and HIV risk.

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