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The distribution of the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in communities where trachoma is disappearing.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models predict that the prevalence of infection in different communities where an infectious disease is disappearing should approach a geometric distribution. Trachoma programs offer an opportunity to test this hypothesis, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted trachoma to be eliminated as a public health concern by the year 2020. We assess the distribution of the community prevalence of childhood ocular chlamydia infection from periodic, cross-sectional surveys in two areas of Ethiopia. These surveys were taken in a controlled setting, where infection was documented to be disappearing over time. For both sets of surveys, the geometric distribution had the most parsimonious fit of the distributions tested, and goodness-of-fit testing was consistent with the prevalence of each community being drawn from a geometric distribution. When infection is disappearing, the single sufficient parameter describing a geometric distribution captures much of the distributional information found from examining every community. The relatively heavy tail of the geometric suggests that the presence of an occasional high-prevalence community is to be expected, and does not necessarily reflect a transmission hot spot or program failure. A single cross-sectional survey can reveal which direction a program is heading. A geometric distribution of the prevalence of infection across communities may be an encouraging sign, consistent with a disease on its way to eradication.

SUBMITTER: Lietman TM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4986606 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The distribution of the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in communities where trachoma is disappearing.

Lietman Thomas M TM Gebre Teshome T Abdou Amza A Alemayehu Wondu W Emerson Paul P Blumberg Seth S Keenan Jeremy D JD Porco Travis C TC

Epidemics 20150321

Mathematical models predict that the prevalence of infection in different communities where an infectious disease is disappearing should approach a geometric distribution. Trachoma programs offer an opportunity to test this hypothesis, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted trachoma to be eliminated as a public health concern by the year 2020. We assess the distribution of the community prevalence of childhood ocular chlamydia infection from periodic, cross-sectional surveys in two ...[more]

PMID: 25979286

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Project description:BackgroundTrachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness and is caused by ocular infection with the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). While the majority of the global disease burden is found in sub-Saharan Africa, the Western Pacific Region has been identified as trachoma endemic. Population surveys carried out throughout Fiji have shown an abundance of both clinically active trachoma and trachomatous trichiasis in all divisions. This finding is at odds with the clinical experience of local healthcare workers who do not consider trachoma to be highly prevalent. We aimed to determine whether conjunctival infection with Ct could be detected in one administrative division of Fiji.MethodsA population-based survey of 2306 individuals was conducted using the Global Trachoma Mapping Project methodology. Population prevalence of active trachoma in children and trichiasis in adults was estimated using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. Conjunctival swabs were collected from 1009 children aged 1-9 years. DNA from swabs was tested for the presence of the Ct plasmid and human endogenous control.ResultsThe prevalence of active trachoma in 1-9 year olds was 3.4%. The age-adjusted prevalence was 2.8% (95% CI: 1.4-4.3%). The unadjusted prevalence of ocular Ct infection in 1-9 year-olds was 1.9% (19/1009), and the age-adjusted infection prevalence was 2.3% (95% CI: 0.4-2.5%). The median DNA load was 41 Ct plasmid copies per swab (min 20, first quartile 32, mean 6665, third quartile 161, max 86354). There was no association between current infection and follicular trachoma. No cases of trachomatous trichiasis were identified.DiscussionThe Western Division of Fiji has a low prevalence of clinical trachoma. Ocular Ct infections were observed, but they were predominantly low load infections and were not correlated with clinical signs. Our study data suggest that trachoma does not meet the WHO definition of a public health problem in this Division of Fiji, but the inconsistency with previous studies warrants further investigation.

Project description:ObjectiveIn some Pacific Island countries, such as Solomon Islands and Fiji, active trachoma is common, but ocular Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) are rare. On Tarawa, the most populous Kiribati island, both the active trachoma sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF) and TT are present at prevalences warranting intervention. We sought to estimate prevalences of TF, TT, ocular Ct infection, and anti-Ct antibodies on Kiritimati Island, Kiribati, to assess local relationships between these parameters, and to help determine the need for interventions against trachoma on Kiribati islands other than Tarawa.MethodsAs part of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project (GTMP), on Kiritimati, we examined 406 children aged 1-9 years for active trachoma. We collected conjunctival swabs (for droplet digital PCR against Ct plasmid targets) from 1-9-year-olds with active trachoma, and a systematic selection of 1-9-year-olds without active trachoma. We collected dried blood spots (for anti-Pgp3 ELISA) from all 1-9-year-old children. We also examined 416 adults aged ?15 years for TT. Prevalence of TF and TT was adjusted for age (TF) or age and gender (TT) in five-year age bands.ResultsThe age-adjusted prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was 28% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24-35). The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT in those aged ?15 years was 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1-0.3%). Twenty-six (13.5%) of 193 swabs from children without active trachoma, and 58 (49.2%) of 118 swabs from children with active trachoma were positive for Ct DNA. Two hundred and ten (53%) of 397 children had anti-Pgp3 antibodies. Both infection (p<0.0001) and seropositivity (p<0.0001) were strongly associated with active trachoma. In 1-9-year-olds, the prevalence of anti-Pgp3 antibodies rose steeply with age.ConclusionTrachoma presents a public health problem on Kiritimati, where the high prevalence of ocular Ct infection and rapid increase in seropositivity with age suggest intense Ct transmission amongst young children. Interventions are required here to prevent future blindness.

Project description:BackgroundTrachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness due to conjunctival infection with Chlamydia trachomatis. The presence of active trachoma and evidence of infection are poorly correlated and a strong immunologically-mediated inflammatory response means that clinical signs last much longer than infection. This population-based study in five Aboriginal communities endemic for trachoma in northern Australia compared a fine grading of clinical trachoma with diagnostic positivity and organism load.MethodsA consensus fine grading of trachoma, based on clinical assessment and photograding, was compared to PCR, a lipopolysacharide (LPS)-based point-of-care (POC) and a 16S RNA-based nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT). Organism load was measured in PCR positive samples.ResultsA total of 1282 residents, or 85.2% of the study population, was examined. Taking the findings of both eyes, the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years was 25.1% (96/383) of whom 13 (13.7%) were PCR positive on the left eye. When clinical data were limited to the left eye as this was tested for PCR, the prevalence of TF decreased to 21.4% (82/383). The 301 TF negative children, 13 (4.3%) were PCR positive. The fine grading of active trachoma strongly correlated with organism load and disease severity (rs = 0.498, P = 0.0004). Overall, 53% of clinical activity (TF(1) or TF(2)) and 59% of PCR positivity was found in those with disease scores less than the WHO simplified grade of TF.ConclusionDetailed studies of the pathogenesis, distribution and natural history of trachoma should use finer grading schemes for the more precise identification of clinical status. In low prevalence areas, the LPS-based POC test lacks the sensitivity to detect active ocular infection and nucleic acid amplification tests such as PCR or the 16S-RNA based NAAT performed better. Trachoma in the Aboriginal communities requires specific control measures.

Dataset Information

The distribution of the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in communities where trachoma is disappearing.

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The distribution of the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in communities where trachoma is disappearing.

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