Dataset Information

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

ABSTRACT: Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

SUBMITTER: Rucker V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5017762 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

Rücker Viktoria V Keil Ulrich U Fitzgerald Anthony P AP Malzahn Uwe U Prugger Christof C Ertl Georg G Heuschmann Peter U PU Neuhauser Hannelore H

PloS one 20160909 9

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology inclu ...[more]

PMID: 27612145

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Project description:This study was designed to develop a risk assessment chart for the clinical management and prevention of the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Iranian population, which is vital for developing national prevention programs. The Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) is a population-based prospective study of 6504 Iranian adults ?35 years old, followed-up for ten years, from 2001 to 2010. Behavioral and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined every five years, while biennial follow-ups for the occurrence of the events was performed by phone calls or by verbal autopsy. Among these participants, 5432 (2784 women, 51.3%) were CVD free at baseline examination and had at least one follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict the risk of ischemic CVD events, including sudden cardiac death due to unstable angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The model fit statistics such as area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC), calibration chi-square and the overall bias were used to assess the model performance. We also tested the Framingham model for comparison. Seven hundred and five CVD events occurred during 49452.8 person-years of follow-up. The event probabilities were calculated and presented color-coded on each gender-specific PARS chart. The AUROC and Harrell's C indices were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76) and 0.73, respectively. In the calibration, the Nam-D'Agostino ?2 was 10.82 (p = 0.29). The overall bias of the proposed model was 95.60%. PARS model was also internally validated using cross-validation. The Android app and the Web-based risk assessment tool were also developed as to have an impact on public health. In comparison, the refitted and recalibrated Framingham models, estimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 149.60% and 128.23% for men, and 222.70% and 176.07% for women, respectively. In conclusion, the PARS risk assessment chart is a simple, accurate, and well-calibrated tool for predicting a 10-year risk of CVD occurrence in Iranian population and can be used in an attempt to develop national guidelines for the CVD management.

Dataset Information

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

Publications

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

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