Dataset Information

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

ABSTRACT: Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

SUBMITTER: Rucker V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5017762 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

Rücker Viktoria V Keil Ulrich U Fitzgerald Anthony P AP Malzahn Uwe U Prugger Christof C Ertl Georg G Heuschmann Peter U PU Neuhauser Hannelore H

PloS one 20160909 9

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology inclu ...[more]

PMID: 27612145

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Project description:This study was designed to develop a risk assessment chart for the clinical management and prevention of the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Iranian population, which is vital for developing national prevention programs. The Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) is a population-based prospective study of 6504 Iranian adults ?35 years old, followed-up for ten years, from 2001 to 2010. Behavioral and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined every five years, while biennial follow-ups for the occurrence of the events was performed by phone calls or by verbal autopsy. Among these participants, 5432 (2784 women, 51.3%) were CVD free at baseline examination and had at least one follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict the risk of ischemic CVD events, including sudden cardiac death due to unstable angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The model fit statistics such as area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC), calibration chi-square and the overall bias were used to assess the model performance. We also tested the Framingham model for comparison. Seven hundred and five CVD events occurred during 49452.8 person-years of follow-up. The event probabilities were calculated and presented color-coded on each gender-specific PARS chart. The AUROC and Harrell's C indices were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76) and 0.73, respectively. In the calibration, the Nam-D'Agostino ?2 was 10.82 (p = 0.29). The overall bias of the proposed model was 95.60%. PARS model was also internally validated using cross-validation. The Android app and the Web-based risk assessment tool were also developed as to have an impact on public health. In comparison, the refitted and recalibrated Framingham models, estimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 149.60% and 128.23% for men, and 222.70% and 176.07% for women, respectively. In conclusion, the PARS risk assessment chart is a simple, accurate, and well-calibrated tool for predicting a 10-year risk of CVD occurrence in Iranian population and can be used in an attempt to develop national guidelines for the CVD management.

Project description:BackgroundWorldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years.MethodsBased on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores.FindingsPredicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes.InterpretationOur risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements.FundingNational Institutes of Health.

Project description:IntroductionCardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality in the U.S. Although the risk of cardiovascular disease can be mitigated substantially by following a healthy lifestyle, adhering to a healthy diet and other healthy behaviors are limited by reduced food security. This study aims to determine the association between food security and cardiovascular disease risk.MethodsThree samples from the 2007-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were examined: (1) 7,340 non-fasting adults (aged 40-79 years); (2) 13,518 non-fasting adults (aged 20-64 years); and (3) 6,494 fasting adults (aged 20-64 years). Food security was assessed using the U.S. Household Food Security Survey Module, with households categorized as having full, marginal, low, or very low food security. Regressions were conducted in 2018 to test the associations between food security status and odds of ≥20% 10-year cardiovascular disease risk among middle-aged to older adults (OR, 95% CI) and cardiovascular disease risk factors among all adults (β, 95% CI).ResultsCompared with adults with full food security, those with very low food security had higher odds of ≥20% 10-year cardiovascular disease risk (OR=2.36, 95% CI=1.25, 4.46), whereas those with marginal food security had higher systolic blood pressure (β=0.94 mmHg, 95% CI=0.09, 1.80). Compared with adults with full food security, adults with different levels of food security had higher BMIs (marginal: 0.76, 95% CI=0.26, 1.26; low: 0.97, 95% CI=0.34, 1.60; and very low: 1.03, 95% CI=0.44, 1.63) and higher odds of current smoking (marginal: OR=1.43, 95% CI=1.17, 1.75; low: OR=1.47, 95% CI=1.22, 1.77; and very low: OR=1.95, 95% CI=1.60, 2.37).ConclusionsAdults with food insecurity have elevated cardiovascular disease risk factors and excess predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. Substantially improving food security may be an important public health intervention to reduce future cardiovascular disease in the U.S.Population

Dataset Information

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

Publications

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

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