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A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population.

ABSTRACT: Inclusion of clinical parameters limits the application of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models to clinical settings. We developed and externally validated a non-clinical CVD risk score with a clinical extension and compared the performance to established CVD risk scores. We derived the scores predicting CVD (non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and stroke) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (n = 25,992, cases = 683) using competing risk models and externally validated in EPIC-Heidelberg (n = 23,529, cases = 692). Performance was assessed by C-indices, calibration plots, and expected-to-observed ratios and compared to a non-clinical model, the Pooled Cohort Equation, Framingham CVD Risk Scores (FRS), PROCAM scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). Our non-clinical score included age, gender, waist circumference, smoking, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, CVD family history, and dietary parameters. C-indices consistently indicated good discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.786, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.762) comparable to established clinical scores (thereof highest, FRS: EPIC-Potsdam 0.781, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.764). Additional clinical parameters slightly improved discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.796, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.769). Calibration plots indicated very good calibration with minor overestimation in the highest decile of predicted risk. The developed non-clinical 10-year CVD risk score shows comparable discrimination to established clinical scores, allowing assessment of individual CVD risk in physician-independent settings.

SUBMITTER: Schiborn C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8490374 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:AimsThe aim of the present study was to elucidate detailed parameters for prediction of prognosis for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) treatment.MethodsA total of 719 patients (males 577, median age 74 years) treated with Atez/Bev between September 2020 and January 2023 were enrolled. Factors related to overall survival (OS) were extracted and a prognostic scoring system based on hazard ratio (HR) was created. OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were retrospectively examined, and the prognostic ability of the newly developed system was compared to CRAFITY score using concordance index (c-index) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) results.ResultsCox-hazards multivariate analysis showed BCLC classification C/D (HR 1.4; 1 point), AFP ≥100 ng/mL (HR 1.4; 1 point), mALBI 2a (HR 1.7; 1 point), mALBI 2b/3 (HR 2.8; 2 points), and DCP ≥100 mAU/mL (HR 1.6; 1 point) as significant factors. The assigned points were added and used to develop the IMmunotherapy with AFP, BCLC staging, mALBI, and DCP evaluation (IMABALI-De) scoring system. For IMABALI-De scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, OS was not applicable (NA), NA, 26.11, 18.79, 14.07, and 8.32 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 2788.67, c-index 0.699), while for CRAFITY scores of 0, 1, and 2, OS was 26.11, 20.29, and 11.32 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 2864.54, c-index 0.606). PFS periods for those IMABALI-De scores were 21.75, 12.89, 9.18, 8.0, 5.0, and 3.75 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 5203.32, c-index 0.623) and for the CRAFITY scores were 10.32, 7.68, and 3.57 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 5246.61, c-index 0.574). As compared with CRAFITY score, IMABALI-De score had better AIC and c-index results for both OS and PFS.ConclusionThe present results indicated that the proposed IMABALI-De score may be favorable for predicting prognosis of uHCC patients receiving Atez/Bev therapy.

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 myocarditis occurs in 7-28% of patients admitted in the hospital with or without multisystem inflammatory syndrome. It may present as fulminant myocarditis. Dilated cardiomyopathy as a sequela of COVID-19 myocarditis has been reported in the pediatric population. However, to date, no case of silent COVID-19 myocarditis progressing to dilated cardiomyopathy has been reported in children. Furthermore, although newly developed hypertension as a sequela of COVID-19 infection has been reported in adults, there is no report of newly developed COVID-induced hypertension in children. We report a 3-year-old boy with silent COVID-19 myocarditis progressing to dilated cardiomyopathy and newly developed systemic hypertension.Case presentationA 3-year-old boy was referred to the emergency department because of respiratory distress. The parents gave a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the child 5 months ago that was manifested as fever and cough, for which he was treated as an outpatient. Echocardiographic examination revealed a severe decrease in left ventricular systolic function in favor of dilated cardiomyopathy. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging established the diagnosis of myocarditis. The patient left ventricular systolic function did not improve after 2 weeks of intravenous inotropic support. Therefore, the child was transferred to another tertiary center with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and pediatric cardiac transplantation facilities.ConclusionsCOVID-19 can induce silent myocarditis with progression to dilated cardiomyopathy and newly developed systemic hypertension. Thus, a thorough examination of the heart and measurement of blood pressure are mandatory in every child with COVID-19 infection. Cardiac MR is an indispensable tool in the diagnosis, follow-up, and prognostication of COVID-19 myocarditis. Moreover, four-chamber speckle tracking strain imaging showed apical rocking in all the four heart chambers in this child with opposite direction in the failed left ventricle compared with other cardiac chambers. Lastly, the presence of septal flash on M-mode echocardiography, apical rocking and prestretch-rebound stretch patterns on longitudinal strain imaging of the failed left ventricle in this child may be of predictive value for response to cardiac resynchronization therapy.

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A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population.

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