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A Simple and Robust Bedside Model for Mortality Risk in Pediatric Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

ABSTRACT: Despite declining mortality, acute respiratory distress syndrome is still involved in up to one third of pediatric intensive care deaths. The recently convened Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference has outlined research priorities for the field, which include the need for accurate bedside risk stratification of patients. We aimed to develop a simple yet robust model of mortality risk among pediatric patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome to facilitate the targeted application of high-risk investigational therapies and stratification for enrollment in clinical trials.Prospective, multicenter cohort.Five academic PICUs.Three hundred eight children greater than 1 month and less than or equal to 18 years old, admitted to the ICU, with bilateral infiltrates on chest radiograph and PaO2/FIO2 ratio less than 300 in the clinical absence of left atrial hypertension.None.Twenty clinical variables were recorded in the following six categories: demographics, medical history, oxygenation, ventilation, radiographic imaging, and multiple organ dysfunction. Data were measured 0-24 and 48-72 hours after acute respiratory distress syndrome onset (day 1 and 3) and examined for associations with hospital mortality. Among 308 enrolled patients, mortality was 17%. Children with a history of cancer and/or hematopoietic stem cell transplant had higher mortality (47% vs 11%; p < 0.001). Oxygenation index, the PaO2/FIO2 ratio, extrapulmonary organ dysfunction, Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3, and positive cumulative fluid balance were each associated with mortality. Using two statistical approaches, we found that a parsimonious model of mortality risk using only oxygenation index and cancer/hematopoietic stem cell transplant history performed as well as other more complex models that required additional variables.In the PICU, oxygenation index and cancer/hematopoietic stem cell transplant history can be used on acute respiratory distress syndrome day 1 or day 3 to predict hospital mortality without the need for more complex models. These findings may simplify risk assessment for clinical trials, counseling families, and high-risk interventions such as extracorporeal life support.

SUBMITTER: Spicer AC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5268071 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Simple and Robust Bedside Model for Mortality Risk in Pediatric Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

Spicer Aaron C AC Calfee Carolyn S CS Zinter Matthew S MS Khemani Robinder G RG Lo Victoria P VP Alkhouli Mustafa F MF Orwoll Benjamin E BE Graciano Ana L AL Boriosi Juan P JP Howard James P JP Flori Heidi R HR Matthay Michael A MA Sapru Anil A

Pediatric critical care medicine : a journal of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive and Critical Care Societies 20161001 10

<h4>Objectives</h4>Despite declining mortality, acute respiratory distress syndrome is still involved in up to one third of pediatric intensive care deaths. The recently convened Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference has outlined research priorities for the field, which include the need for accurate bedside risk stratification of patients. We aimed to develop a simple yet robust model of mortality risk among pediatric patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome to facilitate the ...[more]

PMID: 27487912

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Project description:ObjectivesPediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is heterogeneous, with a paucity of risk stratification tools to assist with trial design. We aimed to develop and validate mortality prediction models for patients with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.DesignLeveraging additional data collection from a preplanned ancillary study (Version 1) of the multinational Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome Incidence and Epidemiology study, we identified predictors of mortality. Separate models were built for the entire Version 1 cohort, for the cohort excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths. Models were externally validated in a cohort of intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome patients from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.SettingThe derivation cohort represented 100 centers worldwide; the validation cohort was from Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.PatientsThere were 624 and 640 subjects in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsThe model for the full cohort included immunocompromised status, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction 2 score, day 0 vasopressor-inotrope score and fluid balance, and PaO2/FIO2 6 hours after pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. This model had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.82), calibration, and internal validation. Models excluding neurologic deaths, for intubated subjects, and for intubated subjects excluding neurologic deaths also demonstrated good discrimination (all area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.84) and calibration. In the validation cohort, models for intubated pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (including and excluding neurologic deaths) had excellent discrimination (both area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.85), but poor calibration. After revision, the model for all intubated subjects remained miscalibrated, whereas the model excluding neurologic deaths showed perfect calibration. Mortality models also stratified ventilator-free days at 28 days in both derivation and validation cohorts.ConclusionsWe describe predictive models for mortality in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome using readily available variables from day 0 of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome which outperform severity of illness scores and which demonstrate utility for composite outcomes such as ventilator-free days. Models can assist with risk stratification for clinical trials.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:In pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, lung injury is mediated by immune activation and severe inflammation. Therefore, we hypothesized that patients with elevated pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines would have higher mortality rates and that these biomarkers could improve risk stratification of poor outcomes. DESIGN:Multicenter prospective observational study. SETTING:We enrolled patients from five academic PICUs between 2008 and 2015. PATIENTS:Patients were 1 month to 18 years old, used noninvasive or invasive ventilation, and met the American European Consensus Conference definition of acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS:Eight proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines were measured on acute respiratory distress syndrome day 1 and correlated with mortality, ICU morbidity as measured by survivor Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score, and biomarkers of endothelial injury, including angiopoietin-2, von Willebrand Factor, and soluble thrombomodulin. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:We measured biomarker levels in 194 patients, including 38 acute respiratory distress syndrome nonsurvivors. Interleukin-6, interleukin-8, interleukin-10, interleukin-18, and tumor necrosis factor-R2 were each strongly associated with all-cause mortality, multiple markers of ICU morbidity, and endothelial injury. A multiple logistic regression model incorporating oxygenation index, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-R2 was superior to a model of oxygenation index alone in predicting the composite outcome of mortality or severe morbidity (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.77 [0.70-0.83] vs 0.70 [0.62-0.77]; p = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS:In pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines are strongly associated with mortality, ICU morbidity, and biochemical evidence of endothelial injury. These cytokines significantly improve the ability of the oxygenation index to discriminate risk of mortality or severe morbidity and may allow for identification and enrollment of high-risk subgroups for future studies.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Physiologic dead space is associated with mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome, but its measurement is cumbersome. Alveolar dead space fraction relies on the difference between arterial and end-tidal carbon dioxide (alveolar dead space fraction = (PaCO2 - PetCO2) / PaCO2). We aimed to assess the relationship between alveolar dead space fraction and mortality in a cohort of children meeting criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome (both the Berlin 2012 and the American-European Consensus Conference 1994 acute lung injury) and pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (as defined by the Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference in 2015). DESIGN:Secondary analysis of a prospective, observational cohort. SETTING:Tertiary care, university affiliated PICU. PATIENTS:Invasively ventilated children with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Of the 283 children with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, 266 had available PetCO2. Alveolar dead space fraction was lower in survivors (median 0.13; interquartile range, 0.06-0.23) than nonsurvivors (0.31; 0.19-0.42; p < 0.001) at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset, but not 24 hours after (survivors 0.12 [0.06-0.18], nonsurvivors 0.14 [0.06-0.25], p = 0.430). Alveolar dead space fraction at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset discriminated mortality with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66-0.85; p < 0.001), better than either initial oxygenation index or PaO2/FIO2. In multivariate analysis, alveolar dead space fraction at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset was independently associated with mortality, after adjustment for severity of illness, immunocompromised status, and organ failures. CONCLUSIONS:Alveolar dead space fraction at pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome onset discriminates mortality and is independently associated with nonsurvival. Alveolar dead space fraction represents a single, useful, readily obtained clinical biomarker reflective of pulmonary and nonpulmonary variables associated with mortality.

Project description:ObjectivesCirculating nucleosomes and their component histones have been implicated as pathogenic in sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome in adults. However, their role in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome is unknown.DesignWe performed a prospective cohort study in children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, with plasma collection within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. We associated nucleosome levels with severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome and with nonpulmonary organ failures and tested for association of nucleosomes with PICU mortality and ventilator-free days at 28 days in univariate and multivariable analyses. We also performed proteomics of DNA-bound plasma proteins in a matched case-control study of septic children with and without acute respiratory distress syndrome in order to identify specific histone proteins elevated in acute respiratory distress syndrome.SettingLarge academic tertiary-care PICU.PatientsIntubated children meeting Berlin criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsWe enrolled 333 children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, with 69 nonsurvivors (21%). Plasma nucleosomes were correlated with acute respiratory distress syndrome severity and with the number of nonpulmonary organ failures at acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. Nucleosomes were higher (p < 0.001) in nonsurvivors (0.40 [interquartile range, 0.20-0.71] arbitrary units) relative to survivors (0.10 [interquartile range, 0.04-0.25] arbitrary units). Nucleosomes were associated with PICU mortality in multivariable analysis (adjusted odds ratio 1.84 per 1 sd increase; 95% CI, 1.38-2.45; p < 0.001). Nucleosomes were also associated with a lower probability of being extubated alive by day 28 after multivariable adjustment (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.88; p = 0.001). Proteomic analysis demonstrated higher levels of the core nucleosome histones H2A, H2B, H3, and H4 in septic children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, relative to septic children without acute respiratory distress syndrome.ConclusionsPlasma nucleosomes are associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome severity, nonpulmonary organ failures, and worse outcomes in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Project description:BackgroundDespite their potential interest for clinical management, measurements of respiratory mechanics in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are seldom performed in routine practice. We introduced a systematic assessment of respiratory mechanics in our clinical practice. After the first year of clinical use, we retrospectively assessed whether these measurements had any influence on clinical management and physiological parameters associated with clinical outcomes by comparing their value before and after performing the test.MethodsThe respiratory mechanics assessment constituted a set of bedside measurements to determine passive lung and chest wall mechanics, response to positive end-expiratory pressure, and alveolar derecruitment. It was obtained early after ARDS diagnosis. The results were provided to the clinical team to be used at their own discretion. We compared ventilator settings and physiological variables before and after the test. The physiological endpoints were oxygenation index, dead space, and plateau and driving pressures.ResultsSixty-one consecutive patients with ARDS were enrolled. Esophageal pressure was measured in 53 patients (86.9%). In 41 patients (67.2%), ventilator settings were changed after the measurements, often by reducing positive end-expiratory pressure or by switching pressure-targeted mode to volume-targeted mode. Following changes, the oxygenation index, airway plateau, and driving pressures were significantly improved, whereas the dead-space fraction remained unchanged. The oxygenation index continued to improve in the next 48 h.ConclusionsImplementing a systematic respiratory mechanics test leads to frequent individual adaptations of ventilator settings and allows improvement in oxygenation indexes and reduction of the risk of overdistention at the same time.Trial registrationThe present study involves data from our ongoing registry for respiratory mechanics (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02623192 . Registered 30 July 2015).

Project description:OBJECTIVES:The original Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and revised (Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II) biomarker-based risk prediction models have demonstrated utility for estimating baseline 28-day mortality risk in pediatric sepsis. Given the paucity of prediction tools in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, and given the overlapping pathophysiology between sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome, we tested the utility of Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II for mortality prediction in a cohort of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, with an a priori plan to revise the model if these existing models performed poorly. DESIGN:Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING:University affiliated PICU. PATIENTS:Mechanically ventilated children with acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS:Blood collection within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset and biomarker measurements. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:In 152 children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model performed poorly and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II performed modestly (areas under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 and 0.76, respectively). Therefore, we randomly selected 80% of the cohort (n = 122) to rederive a risk prediction model for pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. We used classification and regression tree methodology, considering the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model biomarkers in addition to variables relevant to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The final model was comprised of three biomarkers and age, and more accurately estimated baseline mortality risk (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, p < 0.001 and p = 0.053 compared with Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II, respectively). The model was tested in the remaining 20% of subjects (n = 30) and demonstrated similar test characteristics. CONCLUSIONS:A validated, biomarker-based risk stratification tool designed for pediatric sepsis was adapted for use in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. The newly derived Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model demonstrates good test characteristics internally and requires external validation in a larger cohort. Tools such as Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model have the potential to provide improved risk stratification and prognostic enrichment for future trials in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Dataset Information

A Simple and Robust Bedside Model for Mortality Risk in Pediatric Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

Publications

A Simple and Robust Bedside Model for Mortality Risk in Pediatric Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

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