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False discovery rates: a new deal.

ABSTRACT: We introduce a new Empirical Bayes approach for large-scale hypothesis testing, including estimating false discovery rates (FDRs), and effect sizes. This approach has two key differences from existing approaches to FDR analysis. First, it assumes that the distribution of the actual (unobserved) effects is unimodal, with a mode at 0. This "unimodal assumption" (UA), although natural in many contexts, is not usually incorporated into standard FDR analysis, and we demonstrate how incorporating it brings many benefits. Specifically, the UA facilitates efficient and robust computation-estimating the unimodal distribution involves solving a simple convex optimization problem-and enables more accurate inferences provided that it holds. Second, the method takes as its input two numbers for each test (an effect size estimate and corresponding standard error), rather than the one number usually used ($p$ value or $z$ score). When available, using two numbers instead of one helps account for variation in measurement precision across tests. It also facilitates estimation of effects, and unlike standard FDR methods, our approach provides interval estimates (credible regions) for each effect in addition to measures of significance. To provide a bridge between interval estimates and significance measures, we introduce the term "local false sign rate" to refer to the probability of getting the sign of an effect wrong and argue that it is a superior measure of significance than the local FDR because it is both more generally applicable and can be more robustly estimated. Our methods are implemented in an R package ashr available from http://github.com/stephens999/ashr.

SUBMITTER: Stephens M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5379932 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:All large-scale LC-MS/MS post-translational methylation site discovery experiments require methylpeptide spectrum matches (methyl-PSMs) to be identified at acceptably low false discovery rates (FDRs). To meet estimated methyl-PSM FDRs, methyl-PSM filtering criteria are often determined using the target-decoy approach. The efficacy of this methyl-PSM filtering approach has, however, yet to be thoroughly evaluated. Here we conduct a systematic analysis of methyl-PSM FDRs across a range of sample preparation workflows (each differing in their exposure to the alcohols methanol and isopropanol) and mass spectrometric instrument platforms (each employing a different mode of MS/MS dissociation). Through 13CD3-methionine labeling (heavy-methyl SILAC) of S. cerevisiae cells and in-depth manual data inspection, accurate lists of true positive methyl-PSMs were determined, allowing methyl-PSM FDRs to be compared to target-decoy approach-derived methyl-PSM FDR estimates. These results show that global FDR estimates produce extremely unreliable methyl-PSM filtering criteria; we demonstrate that this is an unavoidable consequence of the high number of amino acid combinations capable of producing peptide sequences that are isobaric to methylated peptides of a different sequence. Separate methyl-PSM FDR estimates were also found to be unreliable due to prevalent sources of false positive methyl-PSMs that produce high peptide identity score distributions. Incorrect methylation site localizations, peptides containing cysteinyl-S-β-propionamide, and methylated glutamic or aspartic acid residues can partially, but not wholly, account for these false positive methyl-PSMs. Together these results indicate that the target-decoy approach is an unreliable means of estimating methyl-PSM FDRs and methyl-PSM filtering criteria. We suggest that orthogonal methylpeptide validation (e.g. heavy-methyl SILAC or its offshoots) should be considered a prerequisite for obtaining high confidence methyl-PSMs in large-scale LC-MS/MS methylation site discovery experiments, and make recommendations on how to reduce methyl-PSM FDRs in samples not amenable to heavy isotope labeling.

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False discovery rates: a new deal.

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