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Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty, and All-Cause Mortality >80 Years of Age: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Clinical trials show benefit from lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in people ?80 years of age, but nonrandomized epidemiological studies suggest lower SBP may be associated with higher mortality. This study aimed to evaluate associations of SBP with all-cause mortality by frailty category >80 years of age and to evaluate SBP trajectories before death. METHODS:A population-based cohort study was conducted using electronic health records of 144?403 participants ?80 years of age registered with family practices in the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2014. Participants were followed for ?5 years. Clinical records of SBP were analyzed. Frailty status was classified using the e-Frailty Index into the categories of fit, mild, moderate, and severe. All-cause mortality was evaluated by frailty status and mean SBP in Cox proportional-hazards models. SBP trajectories were evaluated using person months as observations, with mean SBP and antihypertensive treatment status estimated for each person month. Fractional polynomial models were used to estimate SBP trajectories over 5 years before death. RESULTS:During follow-up, 51?808 deaths occurred. Mortality rates increased with frailty level and were greatest at SBP <110 mm?Hg. In fit women, mortality was 7.7 per 100 person years at SBP 120 to 139 mm?Hg, 15.2 at SBP 110 to 119 mm?Hg, and 22.7 at SBP <110 mm?Hg. For women with severe frailty, rates were 16.8, 25.2, and 39.6, respectively. SBP trajectories showed an accelerated decline in the last 2 years of life. The relative odds of SBP <120 mm?Hg were higher in the last 3 months of life than 5 years previously in both treated (odds ratio, 6.06; 95% confidence interval, 5.40-6.81) and untreated (odds ratio, 6.31; 95% confidence interval, 5.30-7.52) patients. There was no evidence of intensification of antihypertensive therapy in the final 2 years of life. CONCLUSIONS:A terminal decline of SBP in the final 2 years of life suggests that nonrandomized epidemiological associations of low SBP with higher mortality may be accounted for by reverse causation if participants with lower blood pressure values are closer, on average, to the end of life.

SUBMITTER: Ravindrarajah R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5472195 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty, and All-Cause Mortality >80 Years of Age: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records.

Ravindrarajah Rathi R Hazra Nisha C NC Hamada Shota S Charlton Judith J Jackson Stephen H D SHD Dregan Alex A Gulliford Martin C MC

Circulation 20170421 24

<h4>Background</h4>Clinical trials show benefit from lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in people ≥80 years of age, but nonrandomized epidemiological studies suggest lower SBP may be associated with higher mortality. This study aimed to evaluate associations of SBP with all-cause mortality by frailty category >80 years of age and to evaluate SBP trajectories before death.<h4>Methods</h4>A population-based cohort study was conducted using electronic health records of 144 403 participants ≥80 ...[more]

PMID: 28432148

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Project description:BackgroundNumerous studies have investigated the mean arterial pressure in patients with sepsis, and many meaningful results have been obtained. However, few studies have measured the systolic blood pressure (SBP) multiple times and established trajectory models for patients with sepsis with different SBP trajectories.MethodsData from patients with sepsis were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III database for inclusion in a retrospective cohort study. Ten SBP values within 10 h after hospitalization were extracted, and the interval between each SBP value was 1 h. The SBP measured ten times after admission was analyzed using latent growth mixture modeling to construct a trajectory model. The outcome was in-hospital mortality. The survival probability of different trajectory groups was investigated using Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis, and the relationship between different SBP trajectories and in-hospital mortality risk was investigated using Cox proportional-hazards regression model.ResultsThis study included 3034 patients with sepsis. The median survival time was 67 years (interquartile range: 56-77 years). Seven different SBP trajectories were identified based on model-fit criteria. The in-hospital mortality rates of the patients in trajectory classes 1-7 were 25.5%, 40.5%, 11.8%, 18.3%, 23.5%, 13.8%, and 10.5%, respectively. The K-M analysis indicated that patients in class 2 had the lowest probability of survival. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that, with class 1 as a reference, patients in class 2 had the highest in-hospital mortality risk (P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis indicated that a nominal interaction occurred between age group and blood pressure trajectory in the in-hospital mortality (P < 0.05).ConclusionMaintaining a systolic blood pressure of approximately 140 mmHg in patients with sepsis within 10 h of admission was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital mortality. Analyzing data from multiple measurements and identifying different categories of patient populations with sepsis will help identify the risks among these categories.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:To evaluate the effect of intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) control in older adults with hypertension, considering cognitive and physical function. DESIGN:Secondary analysis. SETTING:Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) PARTICIPANTS: Adults 80?years or older. INTERVENTION:Participants with hypertension but without diabetes (N = 1167) were randomized to an SBP target below 120?mm Hg (intensive treatment) vs a target below 140?mm Hg (standard treatment). MEASUREMENTS:We measured the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), mortality, changes in renal function, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), probable dementia, and serious adverse events. Gait speed was assessed via a 4-m walk test, and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) was used to quantify baseline cognitive function. RESULTS:Intensive treatment led to significant reductions in cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] = .66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .49-.90), mortality (HR = .67; 95% CI = .48-.93), and MCI (HR = .70; 95% CI = .51-.96). There was a significant interaction (P?<?.001) whereby participants with higher baseline scores on the MoCA derived strong benefit from intensive treatment for a composite of CVD and mortality (HR = .40; 95% CI = .28-.57), with no appreciable benefit in participants with lower scores on the MoCA (HR = 1.33 = 95% CI = .87-2.03). There was no evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effects with respect to gait speed. Rates of acute kidney injury and declines of at least 30% in estimated glomerular filtration rate were increased in the intensive treatment group with no between-group differences in the rate of injurious falls. CONCLUSION:In adults aged 80?years or older, intensive SBP control lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events, MCI, and death, with increased risk of changes to kidney function. The cardiovascular and mortality benefits of intensive SBP control may not extend to older adults with lower baseline cognitive function. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01206062. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:496-504, 2020.

Project description:Background How measures of long-term exposure to elevated blood pressure might add to the performance of "current" blood pressure in predicting future cardiovascular disease is unclear. We compared incident cardiovascular disease risk prediction using past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure alone or in combination. Methods and Results Using data from UK primary care linked electronic health records, we applied a landmark cohort study design and identified 80 964 people, aged 50 years (derivation cohort=64 772; validation cohort=16 192), who, at study entry, had recorded blood pressure, no prior cardiovascular disease, and no previous antihypertensive or lipid-lowering prescriptions. We used systolic blood pressure recorded up to 10 years before baseline to estimate past systolic blood pressure (mean, time-weighted mean, and variability) and usual systolic blood pressure (correcting current values for past time-dependent blood pressure fluctuations) and examined their prospective relation with incident cardiovascular disease (first hospitalization for or death from coronary heart disease or stroke/transient ischemic attack). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and applied Bayesian analysis within a machine learning framework in model development and validation. Predictive performance of models was assessed using discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration metrics. We found that elevated past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure values were separately and independently associated with increased incident cardiovascular disease risk. When used alone, the hazard ratio (95% credible interval) per 20-mm Hg increase in current systolic blood pressure was 1.22 (1.18-1.30), but associations were stronger for past systolic blood pressure (mean and time-weighted mean) and usual systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio ranging from 1.39-1.45). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a model that included current systolic blood pressure, sex, smoking, deprivation, diabetes mellitus, and lipid profile was 0.747 (95% credible interval, 0.722-0.811). The addition of past systolic blood pressure mean, time-weighted mean, or variability to this model increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% credible interval) to 0.750 (0.727-0.811), 0.750 (0.726-0.811), and 0.748 (0.723-0.811), respectively, with all models showing good calibration. Similar small improvements in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were observed when testing models on the validation cohort, in sex-stratified analyses, or by using different landmark ages (40 or 60 years). Conclusions Using multiple blood pressure recordings from patients' electronic health records showed stronger associations with incident cardiovascular disease than a single blood pressure measurement, but their addition to multivariate risk prediction models had negligible effects on model performance.

Dataset Information

Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty, and All-Cause Mortality >80 Years of Age: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records.

Publications

Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty, and All-Cause Mortality >80 Years of Age: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records.

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