A spatial predictive model for malaria resurgence in central Greece integrating entomological, environmental and social data.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Pergantas P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5490999 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:During 2009-2012, Greece experienced a resurgence of domestic malaria transmission. To help guide malaria response efforts, we used spatial modeling to characterize environmental signatures of areas suitable for transmission. Nonlinear discriminant analysis indicated that sea-level altitude and land-surface temperature parameters are predictive in this regard.
| S-EPMC3647495 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRemote rural riverine villages account for most of the reported malaria cases in the Peruvian Amazon. As transmission decreases due to intensive standard control efforts, malaria strategies in these villages will need to be more focused and adapted to local epidemiology.MethodsBy integrating parasitological, entomological, and environmental observations between January 2016 and June 2017, we provided an in-depth characterization of malaria transmission dynamics in 4 riverine villages of the Mazan district, Loreto department.ResultsDespite variation across villages, malaria prevalence by polymerase chain reaction in March 2016 was high (>25% in 3 villages), caused by Plasmodium vivax mainly and composed of mostly submicroscopic infections. Housing without complete walls was the main malaria risk factor, while households close to forest edges were more commonly identified as spatial clusters of malaria prevalence. Villages in the basin of the Mazan River had a higher density of adult Anopheles darlingi mosquitoes, and retained higher prevalence and incidence rates compared to villages in the basin of the Napo River despite test-and-treat interventions.ConclusionsHigh heterogeneity in malaria transmission was found across and within riverine villages, resulting from interactions between the microgeographic landscape driving diverse conditions for vector development, housing structure, and human behavior.
| S-EPMC8079135 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria ( Plasmodium knowlesi) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case-control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of P. knowlesi were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on P. knowlesi occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced P. knowlesi occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and P. knowlesi, allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions.
| S-EPMC6367187 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction:While epidemiological and pathophysiological aspects of hypertension are still being investigated, there is an increased global interest between hypertension and social health determinants and environmental factors that this study aims to examine. Methods:The sample size used in this work included 2,445 individuals, from Athens metropolitan area, who were randomly enrolled in ATTICA study, during 2001 to 2002. Principal component analysis (PCA), Poisson regression modeling and geographical analysis, based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology, were applied. Results:Geographical analysis and thematic mapping revealed that the West municipalities of Athens had the lowest socio-environmental status. Three components were derived from PCA: high, low and mixed socio-environmental status. Poisson regression analysis showed that high socio-environmental status, educational and economic level were negatively correlated with hypertension in some sectors of Athens (p < 0.05, for all). Conclusions:Through the use of geospatial surveillance the underlying epidemiology of hypertension, and those at greater risk, can be more precisely determined. This study underlines the need to account for environmental factors when developing public health policies and programs for effective hypertension prevention or reduction.
| S-EPMC7225657 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Campaigns to eliminate infectious diseases could be greatly aided by methods for providing early warning signals of resurgence. Theory predicts that as a disease transmission system undergoes a transition from stability at the disease-free equilibrium to sustained transmission, it will exhibit characteristic behaviours known as critical slowing down, referring to the speed at which fluctuations in the number of cases are dampened, for instance the extinction of a local transmission chain after infection from an imported case. These phenomena include increases in several summary statistics, including lag-1 autocorrelation, variance and the first difference of variance. Here, we report the first empirical test of this prediction during the resurgence of malaria in Kericho, Kenya. For 10 summary statistics, we measured the approach to criticality in a rolling window to quantify the size of effect and directions. Nine of the statistics increased as predicted and variance, the first difference of variance, autocovariance, lag-1 autocorrelation and decay time returned early warning signals of critical slowing down based on permutation tests. These results show that time series of disease incidence collected through ordinary surveillance activities may exhibit characteristic signatures prior to an outbreak, a phenomenon that may be quite general among infectious disease systems.
| S-EPMC7115183 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as "hotspots". This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified "hotspot" areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = -0.020 at p < 0.05). At the detailed intra-urban level, however, inequalities showed strong geographical patterns. Large numbers of "hotspots" exist in the northern part of the city compared to the southern part. A holistic assessment, particularly at a detailed local level, considering both environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across the population with the different vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating "hotspot" areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment.
| S-EPMC4962232 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cases of MT malaria amongst troops serving in the North East are on the increase. Study of the malaria morbidity and mortality data of the past five years covering a population of about 1.65 lakhs revealed that there is a definite resurgence of malaria from an incidence of 0.39 per thousand in 1989 to 0.54 per thousand in 1992. Death due to malaria is a cause for concern especially since most of the troops are on chemoprophylaxis. A more realistic epidemiological approach to malaria control would be required to contain malaria.
| S-EPMC5529612 | biostudies-other
Project description:Malaria remains a worldwide public health concern and, in Colombia, despite the efforts to stop malaria transmission, the incidence of cases has increased over the last few years. In this context, it is necessary to evaluate vector diversity, infection rates, and spatial distribution, to better understand disease transmission dynamics. This information may contribute to the planning and development of vector control strategies.A total of 778 Anopheles mosquitoes were collected in fifteen localities of Córdoba from August 2015 to October 2016. Six species were identified and overall, Anopheles albimanus was the most widespread and abundant species (83%). Other species of the Nyssorhynchus subgenus were collected, including Anopheles triannulatus (13%), Anopheles nuneztovari (1%), Anopheles argyritarsis (< 1%) and two species belonging to the Anopheles subgenus: Anopheles pseudopunctipennis (3%) and Anopheles neomaculipalpus (< 1%). Four species were found naturally infected with two Plasmodium species: Anopheles nuneztovari was detected naturally infected with Plasmodium falciparum and Anopheles pseudopunctipennis with Plasmodium vivax, whereas An. albimanus and An. triannulatus were found infected with both parasite species and confirmed by nested PCR.In general, the obtained results were contrasting with previous studies in terms of the most abundant and widespread collected species, and regarding infection rates, which were higher than those previously reported. A positive relationship between mosquito local abundance at the locality level and human infection at the municipality level was found. Mosquito local abundance and the number of houses with mosquitoes in each village are factors explaining malaria human cases in these villages. The obtained results suggest that other factors related to the apparent variation in malaria eco-epidemiology in northern Colombia, must be identified, to provide health authorities with better decision tools aiming to design control and prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC5658941 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Field studies are evaluating if mass drug administration (MDA) might shorten the time to elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, when vector control measures and reactive surveillance strategies are scaled-up. A concern with this strategy is that there may be resurgence of transmission following MDA. METHODS:A conceptual model was developed to classify possible outcomes of an initial period of MDA, followed by continuously implementing other interventions. The classification considered whether elimination or a new endemic stable state is achieved, and whether changes are rapid, transient, or gradual. These categories were informed by stability analyses of simple models of vector control, case management, and test-and-treat interventions. Individual-based stochastic models of malaria transmission (OpenMalaria) were then used to estimate the probability and likely rates of resurgence in realistic settings. Effects of concurrent interventions, including routine case management and test-and-treat strategies were investigated. RESULTS:Analysis of the conceptual models suggest resurgence will occur after MDA unless transmission potential is very low, or the post-MDA prevalence falls below a threshold, which depends on both transmission potential and on the induction of bistability. Importation rates are important only when this threshold is very low. In most OpenMalaria simulations the approximately stable state achieved at the end of the simulations was independent of inclusion of MDA and the final state was unaffected by importation of infections at plausible rates. Elimination occurred only with high effective coverage of case management, low initial prevalence, and high intensity test-and-treat. High coverage of case management but not by test-and-treat induced bistability. Where resurgence occurred, its rate depended mainly on transmission potential (not treatment rates). CONCLUSIONS:A short burst of high impact MDA is likely to be followed by resurgence. To avert resurgence, concomitant interventions need either to substantially reduce average transmission potential or to be differentially effective in averting or clearing infections at low prevalence. Case management at high effective coverage has this differential effect, and should suffice to avert resurgence caused by imported cases at plausible rates of importation. Once resurgence occurs, its rate depends mainly on transmission potential, not on treatment strategies.
| S-EPMC6896478 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Malaria resurgence in African highlands in the 1990s has raised questions about the underlying drivers of the increase in disease incidence including the role of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, climatic anomalies other than the ENSO are clearly associated with malaria outbreaks in the highlands. Here we show that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean, affected highland malaria re-emergence. Using cross-wavelet coherence analysis, we found four-year long coherent cycles between the malaria time series and the dipole mode index (DMI) in the 1990s in three highland localities. Conversely, we found a less pronounced coherence between malaria and DMI in lowland localities. The highland/lowland contrast can be explained by the effects of mesoscale systems generated by Lake Victoria on its climate basin. Our results support the need to consider IOD as a driving force in the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.
| S-EPMC3280600 | biostudies-literature