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The role of symptomatic presentation in influenza A transmission risk.

ABSTRACT: Computer models can be useful in planning interventions against novel strains of influenza. However such models sometimes make unsubstantiated assumptions about the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, or conversely assume there is no impact at all. Using household-level data from known-index studies of virologically confirmed influenza A infection, the relationship between an individual's infectiousness and their symptoms was quantified using a discrete-generation transmission model and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. It was found that the presence of particular respiratory symptoms in an index case does not influence transmission probabilities, with the exception of child-to-child transmission where the donor has phlegm or a phlegmy cough.

SUBMITTER: Wardell R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5528871 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The role of symptomatic presentation in influenza A transmission risk.

Wardell R R Prem K K Cowling B J BJ Cook A R AR

Epidemiology and infection 20161205 4

Computer models can be useful in planning interventions against novel strains of influenza. However such models sometimes make unsubstantiated assumptions about the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, or conversely assume there is no impact at all. Using household-level data from known-index studies of virologically confirmed influenza A infection, the relationship between an individual's infectiousness and their symptoms was quantified using a discrete-generation transmi ...[more]

PMID: 27916020

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Project description:BackgroundDelay in symptomatic presentation leading to advanced stage at diagnosis may contribute to poor cancer survival. To inform public health approaches to promoting early symptomatic presentation, we aimed to identify risk factors for delay in presentation across several cancers.MethodsWe surveyed 2371 patients with 15 cancers about nature and duration of symptoms using a postal questionnaire. We calculated relative risks for delay in presentation (time from symptom onset to first presentation >3 months) by cancer, symptoms leading to diagnosis and reasons for putting off going to the doctor, controlling for age, sex and deprivation group.ResultsAmong 1999 cancer patients reporting symptoms, 21% delayed presentation for >3 months. Delay was associated with greater socioeconomic deprivation but not age or sex. Patients with prostate (44%) and rectal cancer (37%) were most likely to delay and patients with breast cancer least likely to delay (8%). Urinary difficulties, change of bowel habit, systemic symptoms (fatigue, weight loss and loss of appetite) and skin symptoms were all common and associated with delay. Overall, patients with bleeding symptoms were no more likely to delay presentation than patients who did not have bleeding symptoms. However, within the group of patients with bleeding symptoms, there were significant differences in risk of delay by source of bleeding: 35% of patients with rectal bleeding delayed presentation, but only 9% of patients with urinary bleeding. A lump was a common symptom but not associated with delay in presentation. Twenty-eight percent had not recognised their symptoms as serious and this was associated with a doubling in risk of delay. Embarrassment, worry about what the doctor might find, being too busy to go to the doctor and worry about wasting the doctor's time were also strong risk factors for delay, but were much less commonly reported (<6%).InterpretationApproaches to promote early presentation should aim to increase awareness of the significance of cancer symptoms and should be designed to work for people of the lowest socioeconomic status. In particular, awareness that rectal bleeding is a possible symptom of cancer should be raised.

Project description:BackgroundReports suggest that asymptomatic individuals (those with no symptoms at all throughout infection) with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are infectious, but the extent of transmission based on symptom status requires further study.PurposeThis living review aims to critically appraise available data about secondary attack rates from people with asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.Data sourcesMedline, EMBASE, China Academic Journals full-text database (CNKI), and pre-print servers were searched from 30 December 2019 to 3 July 2020 using relevant MESH terms.Study selectionStudies that report on contact tracing of index cases with SARS-CoV-2 infection in either English or Chinese were included.Data extractionTwo authors independently extracted data and assessed study quality and risk of bias. We calculated the secondary attack rate as the number of contacts with SARS-CoV-2, divided by the number of contacts tested.Data synthesisOf 927 studies identified, 80 were included. Summary secondary attack rate estimates were 1% (95% CI 0%-2%) with a prediction interval of 0%-10% for asymptomatic index cases in ten studies, 7% (95% CI 3%-11%) with a prediction interval of 1%-40% for pre-symptomatic cases in 11 studies and 6% (95% CI 5%-8%) with a prediction interval of 5%-38% for symptomatic index cases in 40 studies. The highest secondary attack rates were found in contacts who lived in the same household as the index case. Other activities associated with transmission were group activities such as sharing meals or playing board games with the index case, regardless of the disease status of the index case.LimitationsWe excluded some studies because the index case or number of contacts were unclear.ConclusionAsymptomatic patients can transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others, but our findings indicate that such individuals are responsible for fewer secondary infections than people with symptoms.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42020188168.

Project description:Two subtypes of influenza A virus (IAV), avian-origin canine influenza virus (CIV) H3N2 (CIV-H3N2) and equine-origin CIV H3N8 (CIV-H3N8), are enzootic in the canine population. Dogs have been demonstrated to seroconvert in response to diverse IAVs, and naturally occurring reassortants of CIV-H3N2 and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) have been isolated. We conducted a thorough phenotypic evaluation of CIV-H3N2 in order to assess its threat to human health. Using ferret-generated antiserum, we determined that CIV-H3N2 is antigenically distinct from contemporary human H3N2 IAVs, suggesting that there may be minimal herd immunity in humans. We assessed the public health risk of CIV-H3N2 × pandemic H1N1 (pdmH1N1) reassortants by characterizing their in vitro genetic compatibility and in vivo pathogenicity and transmissibility. Using a luciferase minigenome assay, we quantified the polymerase activity of all possible 16 ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complexes (PB2, PB1, PA, NP) between CIV-H3N2 and pdmH1N1, identifying some combinations that were more active than either parental virus complex. Using reverse genetics and fixing the CIV-H3N2 hemagglutinin (HA), we found that 51 of the 127 possible reassortant viruses were viable and able to be rescued. Nineteen of these reassortant viruses had high-growth phenotypes in vitro, and 13 of these replicated in mouse lungs. A single reassortant with the NP and HA gene segments from CIV-H3N2 was selected for characterization in ferrets. The reassortant was efficiently transmitted by contact but not by the airborne route and was pathogenic in ferrets. Our results suggest that CIV-H3N2 reassortants may pose a moderate risk to public health and that the canine host should be monitored for emerging IAVs.IMPORTANCE IAV pandemics are caused by the introduction of novel viruses that are capable of efficient and sustained transmission into a human population with limited herd immunity. Dogs are a a potential mixing vessel for avian and mammalian IAVs and represent a human health concern due to their susceptibility to infection, large global population, and close physical contact with humans. Our results suggest that humans are likely to have limited preexisting immunity to CIV-H3N2 and that CIV-H3N2 × pdmH1N1 reassortants have moderate genetic compatibility and are transmissible by direct contact in ferrets. Our study contributes to the increasing evidence that surveillance of the canine population for IAVs is an important component of pandemic preparedness.

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The role of symptomatic presentation in influenza A transmission risk.

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The role of symptomatic presentation in influenza A transmission risk.

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