Dataset Information

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

ABSTRACT: Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO₂ fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

SUBMITTER: Zhao C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5584412 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

Zhao Chuang C Liu Bing B Piao Shilong S Wang Xuhui X Lobell David B DB Huang Yao Y Huang Mengtian M Yao Yitong Y Bassu Simona S Ciais Philippe P Durand Jean-Louis JL Elliott Joshua J Ewert Frank F Janssens Ivan A IA Li Tao T Lin Erda E Liu Qiang Q Martre Pierre P Müller Christoph C Peng Shushi S Peñuelas Josep J Ruane Alex C AC Wallach Daniel D Wang Tao T Wu Donghai D Liu Zhuo Z Zhu Yan Y Zhu Zaichun Z Asseng Senthold S

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20170815 35

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-w ...[more]

PMID: 28811375

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Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

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Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

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