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Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for cardiovascular death within 2 years after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A cohort including all patients registered with the Henan Peritoneal Dialysis Registry (HPDR) between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the risk prediction model. The HPDR data was randomly divided into two cohorts with 60% (1,835 patients) for model derivation, and 40% (1,219 patients) for model validation. The absolute rate of cardiovascular mortality was 14.2% and 14.4 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids, fasting glucose, sodium, albumin, total protein, and phosphorus were the strongest predictors of cardiovascular mortality in the final model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with good calibration of observed and predicted risks. The new prediction model that has been developed and validated with clinical measurements that are available at the point of initiation of PD and could serve as a tool to screen for patients at high risk of cardiovascular death and tailor more intensive cardio-protective care.

SUBMITTER: Yu D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5792639 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study.

Yu Dahai D Cai Yamei Y Chen Ying Y Chen Tao T Qin Rui R Zhao Zhanzheng Z Simmons David D

Scientific reports 20180131 1

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for cardiovascular death within 2 years after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A cohort including all patients registered with the Henan Peritoneal Dialysis Registry (HPDR) between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the risk prediction model. The HPDR data was randomly divided into two coho ...[more]

PMID: 29386542

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Project description:Objectives:The monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), as a new marker of the systemic inflammatory response, is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the general population and hemodialysis patients. However, the association between the MLR and CVD mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) has received little attention. Methods:In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, 1753 incident PD patients from November 1, 2005, to June 30, 2017, with a baseline MLR were enrolled. The primary endpoint was CVD mortality. The association of MLR with CVD mortality was assessed using a multivariable-adjusted Cox model and the Fine and Gray competing risk model. Results:Of 1753 patients, the mean age was 51.1 ± 14.9 years, 56.9% of patients were male, and the Charlson comorbidity index was 4.29 ± 1.75. During the follow-up period of 31.2 ± 18.4 months, 368 patients died, of which 200 (54.3%) deaths were caused by CVD events. CVD mortality rates for the lowest, middle, and highest MLR tertiles were 70.6, 78.4, and 88.9 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). After adjusting for confounding factors, the highest MLR tertile was significantly associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for CVD mortality of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.51, P = 0.016). The Fine and Gray method analysis showed that using all-cause mortality as competing risk, the highest MLR tertile remained an independent predictor of CVD mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.10-2.47, P = 0.021). Conclusions:Higher MLR levels at the commencement of PD may be independently associated with increased CVD mortality in PD patients.

Project description:BackgroundRecent studies have shown that triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) is associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and coronary artery disease. However, little attention has been given to the association between TyG-BMI and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD). Therefore, this study aimed to explore the relationship between TyG-BMI and CVD mortality in southern Chinese patients undergoing PD.MethodsIncident patients receiving PD from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2018, with baseline serum triglyceride, glucose, and body mass index (BMI) information, were recruited for this single-center retrospective cohort study. TyG-BMI was calculated based on fasting plasma glucose, triglyceride, and BMI values. The association between TyG-BMI, CVD and all-cause mortality was evaluated using a multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression model.ResultsOf 2,335 patients, the mean age was 46.1 ± 14.8 years; 1,382 (59.2%) were male, and 564 (24.2%) had diabetes. The median TyG-BMI was 183.7 (165.5-209.2). Multivariate linear regression showed that advanced age, male sex, history of CVD, higher levels of albumin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and higher urine output were correlated with a higher TyG-BMI (P < 0.05). During a median follow-up period of 46.6 (22.4-78.0) months, 615 patients died, of whom 297 (48.2%) died as a result of CVD. After adjusting for demographics and comorbidities, TyG-BMI was significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.17) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.05-1.75). After full adjustment, the 28% risk of CVD mortality (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.13-1.45) and 19% risk of all-cause mortality were elevated (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09-1.31) when TyG-BMI increased by 1 stand deviation (SD) (34.2).ConclusionsA higher baseline TyG-BMI was independently associated with an increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in patients receiving PD.

Project description:BackgroundResults concerning the association between peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis and mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients are inconclusive, with one potential reason being that the time-dependent effect of peritonitis has rarely been considered in previous studies. This study aimed to evaluate whether peritonitis has a negative impact on mortality in a large cohort of peritoneal dialysis patients. We also assessed the changing impact of peritonitis on patient mortality with respect to duration of follow-up.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included incident patients who started peritoneal dialysis from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2011. Episodes of peritonitis were recorded at the time of onset, and peritonitis was parameterized as a time-dependent variable for analysis. We used the Cox regression model to assess whether peritonitis has a negative impact on mortality.ResultsA total of 1321 patients were included. The mean age was 48.1 ± 15.3 years, 41.3% were female, and 23.5% with diabetes mellitus. The median (interquartile) follow-up time was 34 (21-48) months. After adjusting for confounders, peritonitis was independently associated with 95% increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval: 1.46-2.60), 90% increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-2.81) and near 4-fold increased risk of infection-related mortality (hazard ratio, 4.94; 95% confidence interval: 2.47-9.86). Further analyses showed that peritonitis was not significantly associated with mortality within 2 years of peritoneal dialysis initiation, but strongly influenced mortality in patients dialysed longer than 2 years.ConclusionsPeritonitis was independently associated with higher risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients, and its impact on mortality was more significant in patients with longer peritoneal dialysis duration.

Project description:ObjectivesTo analyse the relationship between serum uric acid (SUA), all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients to inform clinical practice and future research.DesignA systematic review of observational studies.Data sourcesPubMed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), SinoMed, Chinese Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP) and Wan Fang databases were searched from their inception to January 2021 for cohort and case-control studies reporting SUA and mortality in patients with PD.MethodsThe Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale was used to appraise quality of cohort and case-control studies. Effect estimates were presented as HRs with 95% CIs in a meta-analysis using STATA V.16.0. Data not suitable for pooling were synthesised qualitatively.ResultsFourteen cohort studies with 24 022 patients were included. No case-control studies were identified. For prospective cohort studies, pooled results for the highest SUA category were significantly greater than the lowest for all-cause (one study; 1278participants; HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.75) and CV mortality (one study; 1278 participants; HR 2.63; 1.62-4.27). An increase of 1 mg/dL in SUA level was associated with a 16% increased risk of all-cause mortality (one study; 1278 participants; HR 1.16; 1.03-1.32) and 34% increased CV mortality risk (one study; 1278 participants; HR 1.34; 1.16-1.55). For retrospective cohort studies, the highest SUA category did not demonstrate an elevated all-cause (five studies; 4570 participants; HR 1.09; 0.70-1.70) or CV mortality (three studies; 3748 participants; HR 1.00; 0.44-2.31) compared with the lowest SUA category. Additionally, there was no increase in all-cause (eight studies; 11 541 participants; HR 0.94; 0.88-1.02) or CV mortality (three studies; 7427 participants; HR 0.90; 0.76-1.06) for every 1 mg/dL increase in SUA level.ConclusionsResults of prospective and retrospective cohort studies were inconsistent. Consequently, prospective, multicentre, long-term follow-up studies are required to confirm the relationship between SUA and mortality in patients with PD.

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Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study.

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Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study.

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