Dataset Information

Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index.

ABSTRACT: Although the linkage between climate change and plague transmission has been proposed in previous studies, the dominant approach has been to address the linkage with traditional statistical methods, while the possible non-linearity, non-stationarity and low frequency domain of the linkage has not been fully considered. We seek to address the above issue by investigating plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe (AD1347-1760) at both continental and country levels.We apply Granger Causality Analysis to identify the casual relationship between climatic variables and plague outbreaks. We then apply Wavelet Analysis to explore the non-linear and non-stationary association between climate change and plague outbreaks.Our results show that 5-year lagged temperature and aridity index are the significant determinants of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. At the multi-decadal time scale, there are more frequent plague outbreaks in a cold and arid climate. The synergy of temperature and aridity index, rather than their individual effect, is more imperative in driving plague outbreaks, which is valid at both the continental and country levels.Plague outbreaks come after cold and dry spells. The multi-decadal climate variability is imperative in driving the cycles of plague outbreaks in pre-industrial Europe. The lagged and multi-decadal effect of climate change on plague outbreaks may be attributable to the complexity of ecological, social, or climate systems, through which climate exerts its influence on plague dynamics. These findings may contribute to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of plague and other rodent-borne or flea-borne infectious diseases in human history.

SUBMITTER: Yue RPH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5859406 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index.

Yue Ricci P H RPH Lee Harry F HF

BMC infectious diseases 20180320 1

<h4>Background</h4>Although the linkage between climate change and plague transmission has been proposed in previous studies, the dominant approach has been to address the linkage with traditional statistical methods, while the possible non-linearity, non-stationarity and low frequency domain of the linkage has not been fully considered. We seek to address the above issue by investigating plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe (AD1347-1760) at both continental and country levels.<h4>Method ...[more]

PMID: 29554882

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Project description:Previous studies found that plant communities on infertile soils are relatively resistant to climatic variation due to stress tolerance adaptations. However, the species assemblies in gypsum soil habitats require further investigation. Thus, we considered the following questions. (1) Do harsher arid conditions determine the characteristics of the species that form plant assemblages? (2) Is the selection of the species that assemble in arid conditions mediated by their ability to grow on gypsum soils? (3) Is the selection of species that assemble in harsher conditions related to phylogenetically conserved functional traits? Perennial plant communities were analysed in 89 gypsum-soil sites along a 400 km climate gradient from the central to southeastern Iberian Peninsula. Each local assemblage was analysed in 30 × 30 m plots and described based on taxonomic, functional (soil plant affinity) and phylogenetic parameters. The mean maximum temperatures in the hottest month, mean annual precipitation and their interaction terms were used as surrogates for the aridity conditions in generalized linear models. In the hottest locations, the gypsophily range narrowed and the mean gypsophily increased at the community level, thereby suggesting the filtering of species and the dominance of soil specialists in the actual plant assemblies. Drier sites had higher taxonomic diversity. The species that formed the perennial communities were close in evolutionary terms at the two ends of the aridity gradient. The mean maximum temperatures in the hottest month had the main abiotic filtering effect on perennial plant communities, which was mediated by the ability of species to grow on gypsum soils, and thus gypsum specialists dominated the species assemblies in the hottest locations. In contrast, the perennial communities on gypsum soils were relatively resistant to changes in precipitation. Our findings suggest that the warmer environmental conditions predicted by global change models will favour gypsum specialists over generalists.

Dataset Information

Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index.

Publications

Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index.

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