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High relative risk of all-cause mortality attributed to smoking in China: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Prediction of disease burden in China arising from smoking based on earlier cohorts in the West and China could not reflect the disease burden at the current stage accurately. No cohort studies in China focused specifically on people born since 1950. We examined the risk of all-cause mortality attributed to smoking in adults in Guangzhou, the city with the most rapidly expanding economy in China.This population-based prospective cohort included 21,658 women and 8,284 men aged 50+ years enrolled from 2003-2008 and followed until January 2016. During an average follow-up of 8.8 (standard deviation = 1.8) years, 2,986 (1,586 women, 1,400 men) deaths were recorded. After adjustment for confounders, the hazards ratios (95% confidence interval (CI)) of all-cause mortality in current versus never smokers increased from 1.61 (95% CI 1.45-1.80) in those born in 1920-1939 to 2.02 (95% CI 1.74-2.34), and 4.40 (95% CI 3.14-6.17), in those born in the 1940s and 1950s, respectively (P for trend 0.009).In smokers born after 1949 in Guangzhou and other areas which have the longest history of smoking, the mortality risk could have reached three fold that of non-smokers, as in the UK, US and Australia. If confirmed, unless China quickly and strictly complies with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control with massive smoking cessation in the population, this is a more striking warning that China will be facing an even larger disease burden from tobacco use than previous forecasts.

SUBMITTER: Lam TH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5919701 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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High relative risk of all-cause mortality attributed to smoking in China: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

Lam Tai Hing TH Xu Lin L Jiang Chao Qiang CQ Zhang Wei Sen WS Zhu Feng F Jin Ya Li YL Thomas G Neil GN Cheng Kar Keung KK

PloS one 20180426 4

<h4>Background</h4>Prediction of disease burden in China arising from smoking based on earlier cohorts in the West and China could not reflect the disease burden at the current stage accurately. No cohort studies in China focused specifically on people born since 1950. We examined the risk of all-cause mortality attributed to smoking in adults in Guangzhou, the city with the most rapidly expanding economy in China.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>This population-based prospective cohort included 21, ...[more]

PMID: 29698485

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Project description:Background:Higher fruit consumption is associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Substantial uncertainties remain, however, about the associations of fruit consumption with all-cause mortality and mortality from subtypes of CVD and major non-vascular diseases, especially in China. Methods:In 2004-08, the nationwide China Kadoorie Biobank Study recruited > 0.5 million adults aged 30-79 years from 10 diverse localities in China. Fresh fruit consumption was estimated using an interviewer-administered electronic questionnaire, and mortality data were collected from death registries. Among the 462?342 participants who were free of major chronic diseases at baseline, 17?894 deaths were recorded during ? 7 years of follow-up. Cox regression yielded adjusted rate ratios (RRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with fruit consumption. Results:At baseline, 28% of participants reported consuming fruit ??4 days/week (regular consumers) and 6% reported never/rarely consuming fruit (non-consumers). Compared with non-consumers, regular consumers had 27% [RR?=?0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.76] lower all-cause mortality, 34% lower CVD mortality (n?=?6166; RR?=?0.66, 0.61-0.71), 17% lower cancer mortality (n?=?6796; RR?=?0.83, 0.78-0.89) and 42% lower mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (n?=?1119; RR?=?0.58, 0.47-0.71). For each of the above, there was an approximately log-linear dose-response relationship with amount consumed. For mortality from site-specific cancers, fruit consumption was inversely associated with digestive tract cancer (n?=?2265; RR?=?0.72, 0.64-0.81), particularly oesophageal cancer (n?=?801; RR?=?0.65, 0.50-0.83), but not with cancer of lung or liver. Conclusions:Among Chinese adults, higher fresh fruit consumption was associated with significantly lower mortality from several major vascular and non-vascular diseases. Given the current low population level of fruit consumption, substantial health benefits could be gained from increased fruit consumption in China.

Project description:BackgroundStudies related to the SARS-CoV-2 spikes in the past few months, while there are limited studies on the entire outbreak-suppressed cycle of COVID-19. We estimate the cause-specific excess mortality during the complete circle of COVID-19 outbreak in Guangzhou, China, stratified by sociodemographic status.MethodsGuangzhou Center for Disease Control Prevention provided the individual data of deaths in Guangzhou from 1 January 2018 through 30 June 2020. We applied Poisson regression models to daily cause-specific mortality between 1 January 2018 and 20 January 2020, accounting for effects of population size, calendar time, holiday, ambient temperature and PM2.5. Expected mortality was estimated for the period from 21 January through 30 June 2020 assuming that the effects of factors aforementioned remained the same as described in the models. Excess mortality was defined as the difference between the observed mortality and the expected mortality. Subgroup analyses were performed by place of death, age group, sex, marital status and occupation class.ResultsFrom 21 January (the date on which the first COVID-19 case occurred in Guangzhou) through 30 June 2020, there were three stages of COVID-19: first wave, second wave, and recovery stage, starting on 21 January, 11 March, and 17 May 2020, respectively. Mortality deficits were seen from late February through early April and in most of the time in the recovery stage. Excesses in hypertension deaths occurred immediately after the starting weeks of the two waves. Overall, we estimated a deficit of 1051 (95% eCI: 580, 1558) in all-cause deaths. Particularly, comparing with the expected mortality in the absence of COVID-19 outbreak, the observed deaths from pneumonia and influenza substantially decreased by 49.2%, while deaths due to hypertension and myocardial infarction increased by 14.5 and 8.6%, respectively. In-hospital all-cause deaths dropped by 10.2%. There were discrepancies by age, marital status and occupation class in the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak.ConclusionsThe excess deaths during the COVID-19 outbreak varied by cause of death and changed temporally. Overall, there was a deficit in deaths during the study period. Our findings can inform preparedness measures in different stages of the outbreak.

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High relative risk of all-cause mortality attributed to smoking in China: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

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High relative risk of all-cause mortality attributed to smoking in China: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

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