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Assessing the stability of polio eradication after the withdrawal of oral polio vaccine.

ABSTRACT: The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of 10,000 or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To complete polio eradication, OPV use should eventually cease, but doing so will leave a growing population fully susceptible to infection. If poliovirus is reintroduced after OPV cessation, under what conditions will OPV vaccination be required to interrupt transmission? Can conditions exist in which OPV and WPV reintroduction present similar risks of transmission? To answer these questions, we built a multi-scale mathematical model of infection and transmission calibrated to data from clinical trials and field epidemiology studies. At the within-host level, the model describes the effects of vaccination and waning immunity on shedding and oral susceptibility to infection. At the between-host level, the model emulates the interaction of shedding and oral susceptibility with sanitation and person-to-person contact patterns to determine the transmission rate in communities. Our results show that inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) is sufficient to prevent outbreaks in low transmission rate settings and that OPV can be reintroduced and withdrawn as needed in moderate transmission rate settings. However, in high transmission rate settings, the conditions that support vaccine-derived outbreaks have only been rare because population immunity has been high. Absent population immunity, the Sabin strains from OPV will be nearly as capable of causing outbreaks as WPV. If post-cessation outbreak responses are followed by new vaccine-derived outbreaks, strategies to restore population immunity will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication.

SUBMITTER: Famulare M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5942853 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the stability of polio eradication after the withdrawal of oral polio vaccine.

Famulare Michael M Selinger Christian C McCarthy Kevin A KA Eckhoff Philip A PA Chabot-Couture Guillaume G

PLoS biology 20180427 4

The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of 10,000 or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To ...[more]

PMID: 29702638

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Project description:BackgroundImmunization programs have leveraged decades of research to maximize oral polio vaccine (OPV) response. Moving toward global poliovirus eradication, the WHO recommended phased OPV-to-IPV replacement on schedules in 2012. Using the MAL-ED prospective birth cohort data, we evaluated the influence of early life exposures impacting OPV immunization by measuring OPV response for serotypes 1 and 3.MethodsPolio neutralizing antibody assays were conducted at 7 and 15?months of age for serotypes 1 and 3. Analyses were conducted on children receiving ?3 OPV doses (n?=?1449). History of vaccination, feeding patterns, physical growth, home environment, diarrhea, enteropathogen detection, and gut inflammation were examined as risk factors for non-response [Log2(titer)?<?3] and Log2(titer) by serotype using multivariate regression.FindingsSerotype 1 seroconversion was significantly higher than serotype 3 (96.6% vs. 89.6%, 15?months). Model results indicate serotypes 1 and 3 failure was minimized following four and six OPV doses, respectively; however, enteropathogen detection and poor socioeconomic conditions attenuated response in both serotypes. At three months of age, bacterial detection in stool reduced serotype 1 and 3 Log2 titers by 0.34 (95% CI 0.14-0.54) and 0.53 (95% CI 0.29-0.77), respectively, and increased odds of serotype 3 failure by 3.0 (95% CI 1.6-5.8). Our socioeconomic index, consisting of Water, Assets, Maternal education, and Income (WAMI), was associated with a 0.79 (95% CI 0.15-1.43) and 1.23 (95% CI 0.34-2.12) higher serotype 1 and 3 Log2 titer, respectively, and a 0.04 (95% CI 0.002-0.40) lower odds of serotype 3 failure. Introduction of solids, transferrin receptor, and underweight were differentially associated with serotype response. Other factors, including diarrheal frequency and breastfeeding practices, were not associated with OPV response.InterpretationUnder real-world conditions, improved vaccination coverage and socio-environmental conditions, and reducing early life bacterial exposures are key to improving OPV response and should inform polio eradication strategies.

Dataset Information

Assessing the stability of polio eradication after the withdrawal of oral polio vaccine.

Publications

Assessing the stability of polio eradication after the withdrawal of oral polio vaccine.

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