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Understanding resource utilization and mortality in COPD to support policy making: A microsimulation study.

ABSTRACT: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) poses a significant but heterogeneous burden to individuals and healthcare systems. Policymakers develop targeted policies to minimize this burden but need personalized tools to evaluate novel interventions and target them to subpopulations most likely to benefit. We developed a platform to identify subgroups that are at increased risk of emergency department visits, hospitalizations and mortality and to provide stratified patient input in economic evaluations of COPD interventions. We relied on administrative and survey data from Ontario, Canada and applied a combination of microsimulation and multi-state modeling methods. We illustrated the functionality of the platform by quantifying outcomes across smoking status (current, former, never smokers) and by estimating the effect of smoking cessation on resource use and survival, by comparing outcomes of hypothetical cohorts of smokers who quit at diagnosis and smokers that continued to smoke post diagnosis. The cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality was 37.9% (95% CI: 34.9, 41.4) for never smokers, 34.7% (95% CI: 32.1, 36.9) for current smokers, and 46.4% (95% CI: 43.6, 49.0) for former smokers, at 14 years. Over 14 years, smokers who did not quit at diagnosis had 16.3% (95% CI: 9.6, 38.4%) more COPD-related emergency department visits than smokers who quit at diagnosis. In summary, we combined methods from clinical and economic modeling to create a novel tool that policymakers and health economists can use to inform future COPD policy decisions and quantify the effect of modifying COPD risk factors on resource utilization and morality.

SUBMITTER: Bond EG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7444558 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Understanding resource utilization and mortality in COPD to support policy making: A microsimulation study.

Bond Elizabeth G EG Abrahamyan Lusine L Khan Mohammad K A MKA Gershon Andrea A Krahn Murray M Li Ping P Mian Rajibul R Mitsakakis Nicholas N Sadatsafavi Mohsen M To Teresa T Pechlivanoglou Petros P

PloS one 20200820 8

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) poses a significant but heterogeneous burden to individuals and healthcare systems. Policymakers develop targeted policies to minimize this burden but need personalized tools to evaluate novel interventions and target them to subpopulations most likely to benefit. We developed a platform to identify subgroups that are at increased risk of emergency department visits, hospitalizations and mortality and to provide stratified patient input in economic ev ...[more]

PMID: 32817636

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Project description:BackgroundSince 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals.Methods and findingsWe developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations.ConclusionsThe implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

Project description:SUPPORT tools consist of 18 articles addressing the health policy-makers so that they can learn how to make evidence-informed health policies. These tools have been particularly recommended for developing countries. The present study tries to explain the process of evidence utilization for developing policy documents in the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MoHME) and to compare the findings with those of SUPPORT tools.A qualitative research was conducted, using the framework analysis approach. Participants consisted of senior managers and technicians in MoHME. Purposeful sampling was done, with a maximum variety, for the selection of research participants: individuals having at least 5 years of experience in preparing evidence-based policy documents. Face-to-face interviews were conducted for data collection. As a guideline for the interviews, 'the Utilization of Evidence in Policy-Making Organizations' procedure was used. The data were analyzed through the analysis of the framework method using MAXQDA 10 software.The participants acquired the research evidence in a topic-based form, and they were less likely to search on the basis of the evidence pyramid. To assess the quality of evidence, they did not use standard critical tools; to adapt the evidence and interventions with the local setting, they did not use the ideas and experiences of all stakeholders, and in preparing the evidence-based policy documents, they did not take into consideration the window of opportunity, did not refrain from using highly technical terms, did not write user-friendly summaries, and did not present alternative policy options. In order to develop health policies, however, they used the following innovations: attention to the financial burden of policy issues on the agenda, sensitivity analysis of the preferred policy option on the basis of technical, sociopolitical, and economic feasibility, advocacy from other scholars, using the multi-criteria decision-making models for the prioritization of policy options, implementation of policy based on the degree of readiness of policy-implementing units, and the classification of policy documents on the basis of different conditions of policy-making (urgent, short-term, and long-term).Findings showed that the process of evidence utilization in IR-MoH enjoys some innovations for the support of health policy development. The present study provides IR-MoH with considerable opportunities for the improvement of evidence-informed health policy-making. Moreover, the SUPPORT process and tools are recommended to be used in developing countries.

Project description:BackgroundComplexity theory and systems-thinking are increasingly popular in physical activity (PA) research and policy discourse. The impact of this perspective shift, across many sectors, may be underwhelming. We explore why, by focusing on how these concepts are understood and applied by PA policy-makers. This is of particular interest given the challenges of multisectoral interest and poorly defined stakeholder boundaries that are associated with PA promotion. In this study, we critique key elements of complexity theory and consider how it is understood and put into practice in PA policy-making.MethodsWe adopted a complex realist position. Ten semi-structured interviews were conducted with national-level policy-makers from United Kingdom government settings (five civil servants, three politicians, two policy advisors). An inductive thematic analysis was conducted, and managed with NVivo 10 software.ResultsThree overarching themes were constructed to reflect policy-makers' uncertainty about complexity and the application of such perspectives to this policy space, their sense that PA was an unexceptionable yet unclaimed policy issue, and their desire for influence and change. Participants discussed complexity in contrasting ways. Its meaning was context-dependent and dynamic, which generated uncertainty about applying the concept. Participants also perceived an increasingly diverse but ill-defined PA policy system that spans the domains of expertise and responsibility. Collaborative practices may contribute to a previously unobserved sense of detachment from the systems' complexity. Nevertheless, participants suggested potentially effective ways to stimulate system change, which require passionate and enterprising leadership, and included varied evidence use, a focus on localised implementation and different ways to connect people.ConclusionsThis research highlighted the importance of extending complexity theory and systems-thinking. While emphasizing the prevalence of these ideas across the PA sector, there is uncertainty as to their meaning and implications. This may prevent their use in ways that enhance PA policies and programmes. Participants conceptualised PA as a tool, which was imposed on the system. While this may support participative decision-making and localised implementation, further research is needed to understand how local systems foster leadership, the practical application of complexity and systems-thinking, and how to support system-wide change in the development and implementation of PA policies.

Project description:Arformoterol is the (R,R)-enantiomer of formoterol. Preclinical studies suggest that it is a stronger bronchodilator than the racemic (R,R/S,S)-formoterol; however, its potential clinical advantages have not been demonstrated. This study compared the length of stay (LOS), 30-day readmission rates, and doses of rescue medication administered in hospitalized patients with COPD who were treated with nebulized arformoterol or nebulized formoterol.This retrospective analysis utilized data from Premier, Inc. (Charlotte, NC, USA), the largest nationwide hospital-based administrative database. COPD patients ≥40 years of age were included if they were hospitalized between January 2011 and July 2014, had no asthma diagnoses, and were treated with nebulized arformoterol or nebulized formoterol. LOS was measured from the day the patients initiated the study medication (index day). Rescue medications were defined as short-acting bronchodilators used from the index day onward. Multivariate statistical models included a random effect for hospital and controlled for patient demographics, hospital characteristics, admission characteristics, prior hospitalizations, comorbidities, pre-index service use, and pre-index medication use.A total of 7,876 patients received arformoterol, and 3,612 patients received nebulized formoterol. There was no significant difference in 30-day all-cause (arformoterol =11.9%, formoterol =12.1%, odds ratio [OR] =0.981, P=0.82) or COPD-related hospital readmission rates (arformoterol =8.0%, formoterol =8.0%, OR =1.002, P=0.98) after adjusting for covariates. The adjusted mean LOS was significantly shorter for arformoterol-treated vs formoterol-treated patients (4.6 vs 4.9 days, P=0.039), and arformoterol-treated patients used significantly fewer doses of rescue medications vs formoterol-treated patients (5.9 vs 6.6 doses, P=0.006).During inpatient stays, treating with arformoterol instead of nebulized formoterol may lead to shorter LOS and lower rescue medication use.

Project description:OBJECTIVES: To estimate the potential impact of universal screening for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (National Health Service Health Checks) on disease burden and socioeconomic inequalities in health in England, and to compare universal screening with alternative feasible strategies. DESIGN: Microsimulation study of a close-to-reality synthetic population. Five scenarios were considered: baseline scenario, assuming that current trends in risk factors will continue in the future; universal screening; screening concentrated only in the most deprived areas; structural population-wide intervention; and combination of population-wide intervention and concentrated screening. SETTING: Synthetic population with similar characteristics to the community dwelling population of England. PARTICIPANTS: Synthetic people with traits informed by the health survey for England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed by 2030, stratified by fifths of socioeconomic status using the index of multiple deprivation. RESULTS: Compared with the baseline scenario, universal screening may prevent or postpone approximately 19?000 cases (interquartile range 11?000-28?000) and 3000 deaths (-1000-6000); concentrated screening 17?000 cases (9000-26?000) and 2000 deaths (-1000-5000); population-wide intervention 67?000 cases (57?000-77?000) and 8000 deaths (4000-11?000); and the combination of the population-wide intervention and concentrated screening 82?000 cases (73?000-93?000) and 9000 deaths (6000-13?000). The most equitable strategy would be the combination of the population-wide intervention and concentrated screening, followed by concentrated screening alone and the population-wide intervention. Universal screening had the least apparent impact on socioeconomic inequalities in health. CONCLUSIONS: When primary prevention strategies for reducing cardiovascular disease burden and inequalities are compared, universal screening seems less effective than alternative strategies, which incorporate population-wide approaches. Further research is needed to identify the best mix of population-wide and risk targeted CVD strategies to maximise cost effectiveness and minimise inequalities.

Dataset Information

Understanding resource utilization and mortality in COPD to support policy making: A microsimulation study.

Publications

Understanding resource utilization and mortality in COPD to support policy making: A microsimulation study.

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