Circadian Profile and Seizure Forecasting: Still Cloudy but With Chance for Sunshine.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lee JW
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5967594 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The unpredictability of epileptic seizures exposes people with epilepsy to potential physical harm, restricts day-to-day activities, and impacts mental well-being. Accurate seizure forecasters would reduce the uncertainty associated with seizures but need to be feasible and accessible in the long-term. Wearable devices are perfect candidates to develop non-invasive, accessible forecasts but are yet to be investigated in long-term studies. We hypothesized that machine learning models could utilize heart rate as a biomarker for well-established cycles of seizures and epileptic activity, in addition to other wearable signals, to forecast high and low risk seizure periods. This feasibility study tracked participants' (n = 11) heart rates, sleep, and step counts using wearable smartwatches and seizure occurrence using smartphone seizure diaries for at least 6 months (mean = 14.6 months, SD = 3.8 months). Eligible participants had a diagnosis of refractory epilepsy and reported at least 20 seizures (mean = 135, SD = 123) during the recording period. An ensembled machine learning and neural network model estimated seizure risk either daily or hourly, with retraining occurring on a weekly basis as additional data was collected. Performance was evaluated retrospectively against a rate-matched random forecast using the area under the receiver operating curve. A pseudo-prospective evaluation was also conducted on a held-out dataset. Of the 11 participants, seizures were predicted above chance in all (100%) participants using an hourly forecast and in ten (91%) participants using a daily forecast. The average time spent in high risk (prediction time) before a seizure occurred was 37 min in the hourly forecast and 3 days in the daily forecast. Cyclic features added the most predictive value to the forecasts, particularly circadian and multiday heart rate cycles. Wearable devices can be used to produce patient-specific seizure forecasts, particularly when biomarkers of seizure and epileptic activity cycles are utilized.
| S-EPMC8320020 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate seizure forecasting is emerging as a near-term possibility due to recent advancements in machine learning and EEG technology improvements. Large-scale data curation and new data element collection through consumer wearables and digital health tools such as longitudinal seizure diary data has uncovered new possibilities for personalized algorithm development that may be used to predict the likelihood of future seizures. The Epilepsy Foundation recognized the unmet need for development in seizure forecasting following a 2016 survey where an overwhelming majority of respondents across all seizure types and frequencies reported that unpredictability of seizures had the strongest impact on their life while living with or caring for someone living with epilepsy. In early 2021, the Epilepsy Foundation conducted an updated survey among those living with epilepsies and/or their caregivers to better understand the use-cases that best suit the needs of our community as seizure forecast research advances. These results will provide researchers with insight into user-acceptance of using a forecasting tool and incorporation into their daily life. Ultimately, this input from people living with epilepsy and caregivers will provide timely feedback on what the community needs are and ensure researchers and companies first and foremost consider these needs in seizure forecasting tools/product development.
| S-EPMC8488220 | biostudies-literature
Project description:SEE MORMANN AND ANDRZEJAK DOI101093/BRAIN/AWW091 FOR A SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON THIS ARTICLE : Accurate forecasting of epileptic seizures has the potential to transform clinical epilepsy care. However, progress toward reliable seizure forecasting has been hampered by lack of open access to long duration recordings with an adequate number of seizures for investigators to rigorously compare algorithms and results. A seizure forecasting competition was conducted on kaggle.com using open access chronic ambulatory intracranial electroencephalography from five canines with naturally occurring epilepsy and two humans undergoing prolonged wide bandwidth intracranial electroencephalographic monitoring. Data were provided to participants as 10-min interictal and preictal clips, with approximately half of the 60 GB data bundle labelled (interictal/preictal) for algorithm training and half unlabelled for evaluation. The contestants developed custom algorithms and uploaded their classifications (interictal/preictal) for the unknown testing data, and a randomly selected 40% of data segments were scored and results broadcasted on a public leader board. The contest ran from August to November 2014, and 654 participants submitted 17 856 classifications of the unlabelled test data. The top performing entry scored 0.84 area under the classification curve. Following the contest, additional held-out unlabelled data clips were provided to the top 10 participants and they submitted classifications for the new unseen data. The resulting area under the classification curves were well above chance forecasting, but did show a mean 6.54 ± 2.45% (min, max: 0.30, 20.2) decline in performance. The kaggle.com model using open access data and algorithms generated reproducible research that advanced seizure forecasting. The overall performance from multiple contestants on unseen data was better than a random predictor, and demonstrates the feasibility of seizure forecasting in canine and human epilepsy.media-1vid110.1093/brain/aww045_video_abstractaww045_video_abstract.
| S-EPMC5022671 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveRecently, a deep learning AI model forecasted seizure risk using retrospective seizure diaries with higher accuracy than random forecasts. The present study sought to prospectively evaluate the same algorithm.MethodsWe recruited a prospective cohort of 46 people with epilepsy; 25 completed sufficient data entry for analysis (median 5 months). We used the same AI method as in our prior study. Group-level and individual-level Brier Skill Scores (BSS) compared random forecasts and simple moving average forecasts to the AI.ResultsThe AI had an AUC of 0.82. At the group level, the AI outperformed random forecasting (BSS=0.53). At the individual level, AI outperformed random in 28% of cases. At the group and individual level, the moving average outperformed the AI. If pre-enrollment (non-verified) diaries (with presumed under-reporting) were included, the AI significantly outperformed both comparators. Surveys showed most did not mind poor quality LOW-RISK or HIGH-RISK forecasts, yet 91% wanted access to these forecasts.SignificanceThe previously developed AI forecasting tool did not outperform a very simple moving average forecasting this prospective cohort, suggesting that the AI model should be replaced.
| S-EPMC10802655 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Advances in ambulatory intracranial EEG devices have enabled objective analyses of circadian and multiday seizure periodicities, and seizure clusters in humans. This study characterizes circadian and multiday seizure periodicities, and seizure clusters in dogs with naturally occurring focal epilepsy, and considers the implications of an animal model for the study of seizure risk patterns, seizure forecasting and personalized treatment protocols. In this retrospective cohort study, 16 dogs were continuously monitored with ambulatory intracranial EEG devices designed for humans. Detailed medication records were kept for all dogs. Seizure periodicity was evaluated with circular statistics methods. Circular non-uniformity was assessed for circadian, 7-day and approximately monthly periods. The Rayleigh test was used to assess statistical significance, with correction for multiple comparisons. Seizure clusters were evaluated with Fano factor (index of dispersion) measurements, and compared to a Poisson distribution. Relationships between interseizure interval (ISI) and seizure duration were evaluated. Six dogs met the inclusion criteria of having at least 30 seizures and were monitored for an average of 65 weeks. Three dogs had seizures with circadian seizure periodicity, one dog had a 7-day periodicity, and two dogs had approximately monthly periodicity. Four dogs had seizure clusters and significantly elevated Fano factor values. There were subject-specific differences in the dynamics of ISI and seizure durations, both within and between lead and clustered seizure categories. Our findings show that seizure timing in dogs with naturally occurring epilepsy is not random, and that circadian and multiday seizure periodicities, and seizure clusters are common. Circadian, 7-day, and monthly seizure periodicities occur independent of antiseizure medication dosing, and these patterns likely reflect endogenous rhythms of seizure risk.
| S-EPMC7052793 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveSeizure forecasting algorithms have become increasingly accurate and may reduce the morbidity and mortality caused by seizure unpredictability. Translating these benefits into meaningful health outcomes for people with epilepsy requires effective data visualization of algorithm outputs. To date, no studies have investigated patient and physician perspectives on effective translation of algorithm outputs into data visualizations through health information technology.Materials and methodsWe developed front-end data visualizations as part of a Seizure Forecast Visualization Toolkit. We surveyed 627 people living with epilepsy and caregivers, and 28 epilepsy healthcare providers. Respondents scored each visualization in terms of international standardized software quality criteria for functionality, appropriateness, and usability.ResultsPeople with epilepsy and caregivers ranked hourly radar charts highest for protecting against errors in interpreting forecasts, reducing anxiety from seizure unpredictability, and understanding seizure patterns. Accuracy in interpreting visuals, such as a risk gauge, was dependent on seizure frequency. Visuals showing hourly/daily forecasts were more useful for patients who experienced seizure cycling than those who did not. Hourly line graphs and monthly heat maps were rated highest among clinicians for ease of understanding, anticipated integration into clinical practice, and the likelihood of clinical usage. Epilepsy providers indicated that daily heat maps, daily line graphs, and hourly line graphs were most useful for interpreting seizure diary patterns, assessing therapy impact, and counseling on seizure safety.DiscussionThe choice of data visualization impacts the effective translation of seizure forecast algorithms into meaningful health outcomes.ConclusionThis effort underlines the importance of incorporating standardized, quantitative methods for assessing the effectiveness of data visualization to translate seizure forecast algorithms into clinical practice.
| S-EPMC7935496 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPeople with epilepsy are burdened with the apparent unpredictability of seizures. In the past decade, converging evidence from studies using chronic EEG (cEEG) revealed that epileptic brain activity shows robust cycles, operating over hours (circadian) and days (multidien). We hypothesised that these cycles can be leveraged to estimate future seizure probability, and we tested the feasibility of forecasting seizures days in advance.MethodsWe did a feasibility study in distinct development and validation cohorts, involving retrospective analysis of cEEG data recorded with an implanted device in adults (age ?18 years) with drug-resistant focal epilepsy followed at 35 centres across the USA between Jan 19, 2004, and May 18, 2018. Patients were required to have had 20 or more electrographic seizures (development cohort) or self-reported seizures (validation cohort). In all patients, the device recorded interictal epileptiform activity (IEA; ?6 months of continuous hourly data), the fluctuations in which helped estimate varying seizure risk. Point process statistical models trained on initial portions of each patient's cEEG data (both cohorts) generated forecasts of seizure probability that were tested on subsequent unseen seizure data and evaluated against surrogate time-series. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients with forecasts showing improvement over chance (IoC).FindingsWe screened 72 and 256 patients, and included 18 and 157 patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models incorporating information about multidien IEA cycles alone generated daily seizure forecasts for the next calendar day with IoC in 15 (83%) patients in the development cohort and 103 (66%) patients in the validation cohort. The forecasting horizon could be extended up to 3 days while maintaining IoC in two (11%) of 18 patients and 61 (39%) of 157 patients. Forecasts with a shorter horizon of 1 h, possible only for electrographic seizures in the development cohort, showed IoC in all 18 (100%) patients.InterpretationThis study shows that seizure probability can be forecasted days in advance by leveraging multidien IEA cycles recorded with an implanted device. This study will serve as a basis for prospective clinical trials to establish how people with epilepsy might benefit from seizure forecasting over long horizons.FundingNone. VIDEO ABSTRACT.
| S-EPMC7968722 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vitamin D exerts its canonical roles on the musculoskeletal system and in the calcium/phosphorus homeostasis. In the last years, increasing evidences suggested several extra-skeletal actions of this hormone, indicating that vitamin D may produce effects in almost all the body tissues. These are mediated by the presence of vitamin D receptor (VDR) and thanks to the presence of the 1-?-hydroxylase, the protein that converts the 25-hydroxyvitamin (calcidiol) to the active form 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin (calcitriol). Several studies evaluated the possible role of vitamin D in the pathogenesis of thyroid diseases, and this review will focus on the available data of the literature evaluating the association between vitamin D and thyroid function, vitamin D and autoimmune thyroid diseases, including Hashimoto's thyroiditis, Graves' disease and post-partum thyroiditis, and vitamin D and thyroid cancer.
| S-EPMC5543192 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Analysis platforms to predict drug-induced seizure liability at an early phase of drug development would improve safety and reduce attrition and the high cost of drug development. We hypothesized that a drug-induced in vitro transcriptomics signature predicts its ictogenicity. We exposed rat cortical neuronal cultures to non-toxic concentrations of 34 compounds for 24 h; 11 were known to be ictogenic (tool compounds), 13 were associated with a high number of seizure-related adverse event reports in the clinical FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database and systematic literature search (FAERS-positive compounds), and 10 were known to be non-ictogenic (FAERS-negative compounds). The drug-induced gene expression profile was assessed from RNA-sequencing data. Transcriptomics profiles induced by the tool, FAERS-positive and FAERS-negative compounds, were compared using bioinformatics and machine learning. Of the 13 FAERS-positive compounds, 11 induced significant differential gene expression; 10 of the 11 showed an overall high similarity to the profile of at least one tool compound, correctly predicting the ictogenicity. Alikeness-% based on the number of the same differentially expressed genes correctly categorized 85%, the Gene Set Enrichment Analysis score correctly categorized 73%, and the machine-learning approach correctly categorized 91% of the FAERS-positive compounds with reported seizure liability currently in clinical use. Our data suggest that the drug-induced gene expression profile could be used as a predictive biomarker for seizure liability.
| S-EPMC9963992 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSeizure risk forecasting could reduce injuries and even deaths in people with epilepsy. There is great interest in using non-invasive wearable devices to generate forecasts of seizure risk. Forecasts based on cycles of epileptic activity, seizure times or heart rate have provided promising forecasting results. This study validates a forecasting method using multimodal cycles recorded from wearable devices.MethodSeizure and heart rate cycles were extracted from 13 participants. The mean period of heart rate data from a smartwatch was 562 days, with a mean of 125 self-reported seizures from a smartphone app. The relationship between seizure onset time and phases of seizure and heart rate cycles was investigated. An additive regression model was used to project heart rate cycles. The results of forecasts using seizure cycles, heart rate cycles, and a combination of both were compared. Forecasting performance was evaluated in 6 of 13 participants in a prospective setting, using long-term data collected after algorithms were developed.FindingsThe results showed that the best forecasts achieved a mean area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 for 9/13 participants showing performance above chance during retrospective validation. Subject-specific forecasts evaluated with prospective data showed a mean AUC of 0.77 with 4/6 participants showing performance above chance.InterpretationThe results of this study demonstrate that cycles detected from multimodal data can be combined within a single, scalable seizure risk forecasting algorithm to provide robust performance. The presented forecasting method enabled seizure risk to be estimated for an arbitrary future period and could be generalised across a range of data types. In contrast to earlier work, the current study evaluated forecasts prospectively, in subjects blinded to their seizure risk outputs, representing a critical step towards clinical applications.FundingThis study was funded by an Australian Government National Health & Medical Research Council and BioMedTech Horizons grant. The study also received support from the Epilepsy Foundation of America's 'My Seizure Gauge' grant.
| S-EPMC10300292 | biostudies-literature