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Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. METHODS:A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985-2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000-2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. RESULTS:The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. CONCLUSIONS:By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Lin J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6003101 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.

Lin Ji J Thompson Theodore J TJ Cheng Yiling J YJ Zhuo Xiaohui X Zhang Ping P Gregg Edward E Rolka Deborah B DB

Population health metrics 20180615 1

<h4>Background</h4>In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060.<h4>Methods</h4>A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the N ...[more]

PMID: 29903012

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Metastatic prostate cancer (PCA) remains a highly lethal malignancy in the USA. As prostate-specific antigen testing declines nationally, detailed assessment of current age- and race-specific incidence trends and quantitative forecasts are needed. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the current trends of metastatic PCA by age and race, and forecast the number of new cases (annual burden) and future trends. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:We derived incidence data for men aged ?45 yr who were diagnosed with metastatic PCA from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:We examined the current trends of metastatic PCA from 2004 to 2014, and forecast the annual burden and incidence rates by age and race for 2015-2025, using age-period-cohort models and population projections. We also examined alternative forecasts (2012-2025) using trends prior to the revised screening guidelines issued in 2012. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:Metastatic PCA, steadily declining from 2004 to 2007 by 1.45%/yr, began to increase by 0.58%/yr after 2008, which accelerated to 2.74%/yr following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations-a pattern that was magnified among men aged ?69 yr and white men. Forecasts project the incidence to increase by 1.03%/yr through 2025, with men aged 45-54 yr (2.29%/yr) and 55-69 yr (1.53%/yr) increasing more rapidly. Meanwhile, the annual burden is expected to increase 42% by 2025. Our forecasts estimated an additional 15 891 metastatic cases from 2015 to 2025 compared with alternative forecasts using trends prior to 2012. CONCLUSIONS:The recent uptick in metastatic PCA rates has resulted in forecasts that project increasing rates through 2025, particularly among men aged ?69 yr. Moreover, racial disparities are expected to persist and the annual burden will increase considerably. The impact of the prior and current PCA screening recommendations on metastatic PCA rates requires continued examination. PATIENT SUMMARY:In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer. There is a need for additional research that examines whether national declines in PSA testing contributed to increases in rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men.

Project description:BackgroundThe annual number of hip arthroplasties is increasing combined with the aging population worldwide. In accordance with the increasing number of primary hip arthroplasties, the number of revision total hip arthroplasties (THAs) is expected to increase. The incidence and burden of revision THAs in the United States and have been reported by registry studies. To identify potential differences according to ethnics and regional practice, it is important to obtain data from East Asia. Nevertheless, there has been a lack of studies on the burden and future projection of revision THA based on a large-scale database in East Asia. The purpose of this study was to evaluate annual incidence and burden of revision THAs and to project the future burden in South Korea.MethodsWe identified primary THAs, primary hemiarthroplasties (HAs) and revision THAs, which were performed from 2010 to 2018, using database of Health Insurance and Review and Assessment (HIRA); nation-wide medical claim system of South Korea. The annual incidence rates (per 100,000) of primary THA, primary HA and revision THA, and the annual burden of revision THA; the number of revision THAs divided by the sum of primary hip arthroplasties and revision THAs, were calculated. The future burden of revision THAs were projected through 2030 using generalized linear model with Quasi-poisson regression.ResultsDuring the 9-year period, the annual incidences of primary THA, primary HA and revision THA increased by 47, 29 and 3%, respectively, while the revision burden decreased from 0.13 to 0.10. Compared to 2018, the annual incidences of primary THA, HA, and revision THA were projected to increase by 7.2, 2.3 and 1.1% per year, respectively, whereas the burden of revision THA was projected to decrease to 0.07 in 2030.ConclusionTrends of revision THA in South Korea were similar with those of national registry studies from the United States. The annual incidence of revision THA has steadily increased, whereas its burden has decreased. Findings of our study could be used for epidemiological comparison between Western countries and East Asia as well as for the establishment of medical policies of revision THA in East Asian countries.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Although diabetes is one of the most costly and rapidly increasing serious chronic diseases worldwide, the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence has not been determined. METHODS: Using a dynamic model that incorporates national data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, migration, mortality rates, and intervention effectiveness, we project the effect of five hypothetical prevention policies on future US diabetes rates through 2030: 1) no diabetes prevention strategy; 2) a "high-risk" strategy, wherein adults with both impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting plasma glucose of 100-124 mg/dl) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour post-load glucose of 141-199 mg/dl) receive structured lifestyle intervention; 3) a "moderate-risk" strategy, wherein only adults with IFG are offered structured lifestyle intervention; 4) a "population-wide" strategy, in which the entire population is exposed to broad risk reduction policies; and 5) a "combined" strategy, involving both the moderate-risk and population-wide strategies. We assumed that the moderate- and high-risk strategies reduce the annual diabetes incidence rate in the targeted subpopulations by 12.5% through 2030 and that the population-wide approach would reduce the projected annual diabetes incidence rate by 2% in the entire US population. RESULTS: We project that by the year 2030, the combined strategy would prevent 4.6 million incident cases and 3.6 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in diabetes prevalence by 14%. The moderate-risk approach is projected to prevent 4.0 million incident cases, 3.1 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in prevalence by 12%. The high-risk and population approaches attenuate the projected prevalence increases by 5% and 3%, respectively. Even if the most effective strategy is implemented (the combined strategy), our projections indicate that the diabetes prevalence rate would increase by about 65% over the 23 years (i.e., from 12.9% in 2010 to 21.3% in 2030). CONCLUSIONS: While implementation of appropriate diabetes prevention strategies may slow the rate of increase of the prevalence of diabetes among US adults through 2030, the US diabetes prevalence rate is likely to increase dramatically over the next 20 years. Demand for health care services for people with diabetes complications and diabetes-related disability will continue to grow, and these services will need to be strengthened along with primary diabetes prevention efforts.

Project description:ImportanceVisual impairment (VI) in early childhood can significantly impair development.ObjectiveTo determine demographic and geographic variations in VI in children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States in 2015 and to estimate projected prevalence through 2060.Design, setting, and participantsDescriptive study reporting statistics estimated based on prevalence data from 2 major population-based studies conducted in the United States between 2003 and 2011. Using US census projections, prevalence of VI and cause-specific VI in the better eye were reported by race/ethnicity, state and region, and per capita prevalence of VI by state. The study included preschool children in the United States. Analyses for this study were conducted between February 2016 and March 2017.Main outcomes and measuresPrevalence of VI among children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States.ResultsIn 2015, more than 174 000 children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States were visually impaired. Almost 121 000 of these cases (69%) arose from simple uncorrected refractive error, and 43 000 (25%) from bilateral amblyopia. By 2060, the number of children aged 3 to 5 years with VI is projected to increase by 26%. In 2015, Hispanic white children accounted for the highest number of VI cases (66 000); this group will remain the most affected through 2060, with an increasingly large proportion of cases (37.7% in 2015 and 43.6% in 2060). The racial/ethnic group with the second most VI is projected to shift from non-Hispanic white children (26.3% in 2015 decreasing to 16.5% in 2060) to African American children (24.5% in 2015 and 22.0% in 2060). From 2015 to 2060, the states projected to have the most children with VI are California (26 600 in 2015 and 38 000 in 2060), Texas (21 500 in 2015 and 29 100 in 2060), and Florida (10 900 in 2015 and 13 900 in 2060).Conclusions and relevanceThese data suggest that the number of preschool children with VI is projected to increase disproportionally, especially among minority populations. Vision screening for refractive error and related eye diseases may prevent a high proportion of preschool children from experiencing unnecessary VI and associated developmental delays.

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Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.

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Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.

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