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Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs) are rare tumors in the general population but are the most commonly occurring malignancy among males between ages 15 and 44 years in the United States (US). Although non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) have the highest incidence in the US, rates among Hispanics have increased the most in recent years. To forecast what these incidence rates may be in the future, an analysis of TGCT incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and the National Program of Cancer Registries was conducted. METHODS:TGCT incidence data among males ages 15 to 59 years for the years 1999 to 2012 were obtained from 39 US cancer registries. Incidence rates through 2026 were forecast using age-period-cohort models stratified by race/ethnicity, histology (seminoma, nonseminoma), and age. RESULTS:Between 1999 and 2012, TGCT incidence rates, both overall and by histology, were highest among NHWs, followed by Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and non-Hispanic blacks. Between 2013 and 2026, rates among Hispanics were forecast to increase annually by 3.96% (95% confidence interval, 3.88%-4.03%), resulting in the highest rate of increase of any racial/ethnic group. By 2026, the highest TGCT rates in the US will be among Hispanics because of increases in both seminomas and nonseminomas. Rates among NHWs will slightly increase, whereas rates among other groups will slightly decrease. CONCLUSIONS:By 2026, Hispanics will have the highest rate of TGCT of any racial/ethnic group in the US because of the rising incidence among recent birth cohorts. Reasons for the increase in younger Hispanics merit further exploration. Cancer 2017;123:2320-2328. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

SUBMITTER: Ghazarian AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5629636 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.

Ghazarian Armen A AA Kelly Scott P SP Altekruse Sean F SF Rosenberg Philip S PS McGlynn Katherine A KA

Cancer 20170227 12

<h4>Background</h4>Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs) are rare tumors in the general population but are the most commonly occurring malignancy among males between ages 15 and 44 years in the United States (US). Although non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) have the highest incidence in the US, rates among Hispanics have increased the most in recent years. To forecast what these incidence rates may be in the future, an analysis of TGCT incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program a ...[more]

PMID: 28241106

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Metastatic prostate cancer (PCA) remains a highly lethal malignancy in the USA. As prostate-specific antigen testing declines nationally, detailed assessment of current age- and race-specific incidence trends and quantitative forecasts are needed. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the current trends of metastatic PCA by age and race, and forecast the number of new cases (annual burden) and future trends. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:We derived incidence data for men aged ?45 yr who were diagnosed with metastatic PCA from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:We examined the current trends of metastatic PCA from 2004 to 2014, and forecast the annual burden and incidence rates by age and race for 2015-2025, using age-period-cohort models and population projections. We also examined alternative forecasts (2012-2025) using trends prior to the revised screening guidelines issued in 2012. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:Metastatic PCA, steadily declining from 2004 to 2007 by 1.45%/yr, began to increase by 0.58%/yr after 2008, which accelerated to 2.74%/yr following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations-a pattern that was magnified among men aged ?69 yr and white men. Forecasts project the incidence to increase by 1.03%/yr through 2025, with men aged 45-54 yr (2.29%/yr) and 55-69 yr (1.53%/yr) increasing more rapidly. Meanwhile, the annual burden is expected to increase 42% by 2025. Our forecasts estimated an additional 15 891 metastatic cases from 2015 to 2025 compared with alternative forecasts using trends prior to 2012. CONCLUSIONS:The recent uptick in metastatic PCA rates has resulted in forecasts that project increasing rates through 2025, particularly among men aged ?69 yr. Moreover, racial disparities are expected to persist and the annual burden will increase considerably. The impact of the prior and current PCA screening recommendations on metastatic PCA rates requires continued examination. PATIENT SUMMARY:In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer. There is a need for additional research that examines whether national declines in PSA testing contributed to increases in rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men.

Dataset Information

Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.

Publications

Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.

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