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Integration of Clinical Variables for the Prediction of Late Distant Recurrence in Patients With Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer Treated With 5 Years of Endocrine Therapy: CTS5.

ABSTRACT: Purpose Estimating risk of late distant recurrence (DR) is an important goal for managing women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine treatment without recurrence. We developed and validated a simple clinicopathologic tool (Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years [CTS5]) to estimate residual risk of DR after 5 years of endocrine treatment. Patients and Methods The ATAC (Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination) data set (N = 4,735) was used to create a prognostic score for post-5-year risk of DR. Validity of CTS5 (ATAC) was tested in the BIG 1-98 data set (N = 6,711). Time to late DR, 5 years after finishing scheduled endocrine therapy, was the primary end point. Cox regression models estimated the prognostic performance of CTS5 (ATAC). Results CTS5 (ATAC) was significantly prognostic for late DR in the ATAC cohort (hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% CI, 2.24 to 2.73; P < .001) and BIG 1-98 validation cohort (hazard ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.88 to 2.28; P < .001). CTS5 (ATAC) risk stratification defined in the training cohort as low (< 5% DR risk, years 5 to 10), intermediate (5% to 10%), or high (> 10%) identified 43% of the validation cohort as low risk, with an observed DR rate of 3.6% (95% CI, 2.7% to 4.9%) during years 5 to 10. From years 5 to 10, 63% of node-negative patients were low risk, with a DR rate of 3.9% (95% CI, 2.9% to 5.3%), and 24% with one to three positive nodes were low risk, with a DR rate of 1.5% (95% CI, 0.5% to 3.8%). A final CTS5 for future use was derived from pooled data from ATAC and BIG 1-98. Conclusion CTS5 is a simple tool based on information that is readily available to all clinicians. CTS5 was validated as highly prognostic for late DR in the independent BIG 1-98 study. The final CTS5 algorithm identified 42% of women with < 1% per-year risk of DR who could be advised of the limited potential value of extended endocrine therapy.

SUBMITTER: Dowsett M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6049399 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Integration of Clinical Variables for the Prediction of Late Distant Recurrence in Patients With Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer Treated With 5 Years of Endocrine Therapy: CTS5.

Dowsett Mitch M Sestak Ivana I Regan Meredith M MM Dodson Andrew A Viale Giuseppe G Thürlimann Beat B Colleoni Marco M Cuzick Jack J

Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology 20180420 19

Purpose Estimating risk of late distant recurrence (DR) is an important goal for managing women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine treatment without recurrence. We developed and validated a simple clinicopathologic tool (Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years [CTS5]) to estimate residual risk of DR after 5 years of endocrine treatment. Patients and Methods The ATAC (Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination) data set (N = 4,735) was used to create a prognos ...[more]

PMID: 29676944

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Invasive lobular carcinomas (ILCs) account for 10-15% of all breast cancers. They are characterized by an elevated endocrine responsiveness and by a long lasting risk of relapse over time. Here we report for the first time an analysis of clinical and pathological features associated with the risk of late distant recurrence in ILCs. PATIENTS AND METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed all consecutive patients with hormone receptor-positive ILC operated at the European Institute of Oncology (EIO) between June 1994 and December 2010 and scheduled to receive at least 5 years of endocrine treatment. The aim was to identify clinical and pathological variables that provide prognostic information in the period beginning 5 years after definitive surgery. The cumulative incidence of distant metastases (CI-DM) from 5 years after surgery was the prospectively defined primary endpoint. RESULTS:One thousand eight hundred seventy-two patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median follow-up was 8.7 years. Increased tumor size and positive nodal status were significantly associated with higher risk of late distant recurrence, but nodal status had a significant lower prognostic value in late follow-up period (DM-HR, 3.21; 95% CI, 2.06-5.01) as compared with the first 5 years of follow-up (DM-HR, 9.55; 95% CI, 5.64-16.2; heterogeneity p value 0.002). Elevated Ki-67 labeling index (LI) retained a significant and independent prognostic value even after the first 5 years from surgery (DM-HR, 1.81; 95% CI 1.19-2.75), and it also stratified the prognosis of ILC patients subgrouped according to lymph node status. A combined score, obtained integrating the previously validated Clinical Treatment Score post 5 years (CTS5) and Ki-67 LI, had a strong association with the risk of late distant recurrence of ILCs. CONCLUSION:We identified factors associated with the risk of late distant recurrence in ER-positive ILCs and developed a simple prognostic score, based on data that are readily available, which warrants further validation.

Project description:The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) predicts risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR) in node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. We evaluated the association between RS and LRR in node-positive, ER-positive patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy plus tamoxifen in National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28. B-28 compared doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide (AC X 4) with AC X 4 followed by paclitaxel X 4. Tamoxifen was given to patients age 50 years or older and those younger than age 50 years with ER-positive and/or progesterone receptor-positive tumors. Lumpectomy patients received breast radiotherapy. Mastectomy patients received no radiotherapy. The present study includes 1065 ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients with RS assessment. Cumulative incidence functions and subdistribution hazard regression models were used for LRR to account for competing risks including distant recurrence, second primary cancers, and death from other causes. Median follow-up was 11.2 years. All statistical tests were one-sided. There were 80 LRRs (7.5%) as first events (68% local/32% regional). RS was low: 36.2%; intermediate: 34.2%; and high: 29.6%. RS was a statistically significant predictor of LRR in univariate analyses (10-year cumulative incidence of LRR = 3.3%, 7.2%, and 12.2% for low, intermediate, and high RS, respectively, P < .001). In multivariable regression analysis, RS remained an independent predictor of LRR (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28 to 5.26, for a 50-point difference, P = .008) along with pathologic nodal status (HR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.20 to 3.03, for four or more vs one to three positive nodes, P = .006) and tumor size (HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.55, for a 1 cm difference, P = .02). RS statistically significantly predicts risk of LRR in node-positive, ER-positive breast cancer patients after adjuvant chemotherapy plus tamoxifen. These findings can help in the selection of appropriate candidates for comprehensive radiotherapy.

Dataset Information

Integration of Clinical Variables for the Prediction of Late Distant Recurrence in Patients With Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer Treated With 5 Years of Endocrine Therapy: CTS5.

Publications

Integration of Clinical Variables for the Prediction of Late Distant Recurrence in Patients With Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer Treated With 5 Years of Endocrine Therapy: CTS5.

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