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Risk stratification with Breast Cancer Index for late distant recurrence in patients with clinically low-risk (T1N0) estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: Patients with early-stage, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer with favorable clinicopathologic features are often not recommended for extended endocrine therapy. However, even patients with T1N0 disease remain at significant risk of distant recurrence up to 15 years following 5 years of endocrine therapy, highlighting the need for further stratification based on individualized risk to select patients for extended endocrine therapy. In this study, the incremental utility of genomic classification to stratify clinically low-risk patients for late distant recurrence was evaluated using the Breast Cancer Index. In 547 T1N0 patients from two cohorts that were disease-free at 5 years post-diagnosis, Breast Cancer Index categorized 32 and 36% from each cohort, respectively, with high risk of late distant recurrence that was associated with significantly reduced distant recurrence-free survival (86.7 and 89.6%) between years 5-15 and 5-10 compared to Breast Cancer Index low risk (95.4%; P = 0.0263 and 98.4%; P = 0.008). Findings support consideration of genomic classification in clinically low-risk hormone receptor-positive patients to identify candidates for extended endocrine therapy.

SUBMITTER: Schroeder B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5543049 | biostudies-other | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Invasive lobular carcinomas (ILCs) account for 10-15% of all breast cancers. They are characterized by an elevated endocrine responsiveness and by a long lasting risk of relapse over time. Here we report for the first time an analysis of clinical and pathological features associated with the risk of late distant recurrence in ILCs. PATIENTS AND METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed all consecutive patients with hormone receptor-positive ILC operated at the European Institute of Oncology (EIO) between June 1994 and December 2010 and scheduled to receive at least 5 years of endocrine treatment. The aim was to identify clinical and pathological variables that provide prognostic information in the period beginning 5 years after definitive surgery. The cumulative incidence of distant metastases (CI-DM) from 5 years after surgery was the prospectively defined primary endpoint. RESULTS:One thousand eight hundred seventy-two patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median follow-up was 8.7 years. Increased tumor size and positive nodal status were significantly associated with higher risk of late distant recurrence, but nodal status had a significant lower prognostic value in late follow-up period (DM-HR, 3.21; 95% CI, 2.06-5.01) as compared with the first 5 years of follow-up (DM-HR, 9.55; 95% CI, 5.64-16.2; heterogeneity p value 0.002). Elevated Ki-67 labeling index (LI) retained a significant and independent prognostic value even after the first 5 years from surgery (DM-HR, 1.81; 95% CI 1.19-2.75), and it also stratified the prognosis of ILC patients subgrouped according to lymph node status. A combined score, obtained integrating the previously validated Clinical Treatment Score post 5 years (CTS5) and Ki-67 LI, had a strong association with the risk of late distant recurrence of ILCs. CONCLUSION:We identified factors associated with the risk of late distant recurrence in ER-positive ILCs and developed a simple prognostic score, based on data that are readily available, which warrants further validation.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Biomarkers to improve the risk-benefit of extended adjuvant endocrine therapy for late recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer would be clinically valuable. We compared the prognostic ability of the breast-cancer index (BCI) assay, 21-gene recurrence score (Oncotype DX), and an immunohistochemical prognostic model (IHC4) for both early and late recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive, node-negative (N0) disease who took part in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) clinical trial. METHODS:In this prospective comparison study, we obtained archival tumour blocks from the TransATAC tissue bank from all postmenopausal patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer from whom the 21-gene recurrence score and IHC4 values had already been derived. We did BCI analysis in matched samples with sufficient residual RNA using two BCI models-cubic (BCI-C) and linear (BCI-L)-using previously validated cutoffs. We assessed prognostic ability of BCI for distant recurrence over 10 years (the primary endpoint) and compared it with that of the 21-gene recurrence score and IHC4. We also tested the ability of the assays to predict early (0-5 years) and late (5-10 years) distant recurrence. To assess the ability of the biomarkers to predict recurrence beyond standard clinicopathological variables, we calculated the change in the likelihood-ratio ?(2) (LR-??(2)) from Cox proportional hazards models. FINDINGS:Suitable tissue was available from 665 patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive, N0 breast cancer for BCI analysis. The primary analysis showed significant differences in risk of distant recurrence over 10 years in the categorical BCI-C risk groups (p<0·0001) with 6·8% (95% CI 4·4-10·0) of patients in the low-risk group, 17·3% (12·0-24·7) in the intermediate group, and 22·2% (15·3-31·5) in the high-risk group having distant recurrence. The secondary analysis showed that BCI-L was a much stronger predictor for overall (0-10 year) distant recurrence compared with BCI-C (interquartile HR 2·30 [95% CI 1·62-3·27]; LR-??(2)=22·69; p<0·0001). When compared with BCI-L, the 21-gene recurrence score was less predictive (HR 1·48 [95% CI 1·22-1·78]; LR-??(2)=13·68; p=0·0002) and IHC4 was similar (HR 1·69 [95% CI 1·51-2·56]; LR-??(2)=22·83; p<0·0001). All further analyses were done with the BCI-L model. In a multivariable analysis, all assays had significant prognostic ability for early distant recurrence (BCI-L HR 2·77 [95% CI 1·63-4·70], LR-??(2)=15·42, p<0·0001; 21-gene recurrence score HR 1·80 [1·42-2·29], LR-??(2)=18·48, p<0·0001; IHC4 HR 2·90 [2·01-4·18], LR-??(2)=29·14, p<0·0001); however, only BCI-L was significant for late distant recurrence (BCI-L HR 1·95 [95% CI 1·22-3·14], LR-??(2)=7·97, p=0·0048; 21-gene recurrence score HR 1·13 [0·82-1·56], LR-??(2)=0·48, p=0·47; IHC4 HR 1·30 [0·88-1·94], LR-??(2)=1·59, p=0·20). INTERPRETATION:BCI-L was the only significant prognostic test for risk of both early and late distant recurrence and identified two risk populations for each timeframe. It could help to identify patients at high risk for late distant recurrence who might benefit from extended endocrine or other therapy. FUNDING:Avon Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Breast Cancer Foundation, US Department of Defense Breast Cancer Research Program, Susan G Komen for the Cure, Breakthrough Breast Cancer through the Mary-Jean Mitchell Green Foundation, AstraZeneca, Cancer Research UK, and the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the Royal Marsden (London, UK).

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Risk stratification with Breast Cancer Index for late distant recurrence in patients with clinically low-risk (T1N0) estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

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