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Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models.

ABSTRACT: Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet, for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus (ZIKV) in field-derived Aedes aegypti across eight constant temperatures. We observed strong, unimodal effects of temperature on vector competence, extrinsic incubation period and mosquito survival. We used thermal responses of these traits to update an existing temperature-dependent model to infer temperature effects on ZIKV transmission. ZIKV transmission was optimized at 29°C, and had a thermal range of 22.7°C-34.7°C. Thus, as temperatures move towards the predicted thermal optimum (29°C) owing to climate change, urbanization or seasonality, Zika could expand north and into longer seasons. By contrast, areas that are near the thermal optimum were predicted to experience a decrease in overall environmental suitability. We also demonstrate that the predicted thermal minimum for Zika transmission is 5°C warmer than that of dengue, and current global estimates on the environmental suitability for Zika are greatly over-predicting its possible range.

SUBMITTER: Tesla B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6111177 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models.

Tesla Blanka B Demakovsky Leah R LR Mordecai Erin A EA Ryan Sadie J SJ Bonds Matthew H MH Ngonghala Calistus N CN Brindley Melinda A MA Murdock Courtney C CC

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20180815 1884

Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet, for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus (ZIKV) in field-derived <i>Aedes aegypti</i> across eight consta ...[more]

PMID: 30111605

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Pacific Ocean and subsequently caused a dramatic Pan-American epidemic after its first appearance in the Northeast region of Brazil in 2015. The virus is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. We evaluated the role of temperature and infectious doses of ZIKV in vector competence of Brazilian populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Two Ae. aegypti (Rio de Janeiro and Natal) and two Ae. albopictus (Rio de Janeiro and Manaus) populations were orally challenged with five viral doses (102 to 106 PFU / ml) of a ZIKV strain (Asian genotype) isolated in Northeastern Brazil, and incubated for 14 and 21 days in temperatures mimicking the spring-summer (28°C) and winter-autumn (22°C) mean values in Brazil. Detection of viral particles in the body, head and saliva samples was done by plaque assays in cell culture for determining the infection, dissemination and transmission rates, respectively. Compared with 28°C, at 22°C, transmission rates were significantly lower for both Ae. aegypti populations, and Ae. albopictus were not able to transmit the virus. Ae. albopictus showed low transmission rates even when challenged with the highest viral dose, while both Ae. aegypti populations presented higher of infection, dissemination and transmission rates than Ae. albopictus. Ae. aegypti showed higher transmission efficiency when taking virus doses of 105 and 106 PFU/mL following incubation at 28°C; both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were unable to transmit ZIKV with virus doses of 102 and 103 PFU/mL, regardless the incubation temperature. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:The ingested viral dose and incubation temperature were significant predictors of the proportion of mosquito's biting becoming infectious. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have the ability to transmit ZIKV when incubated at 28°C. However Brazilian populations of Ae. aegypti exhibit a much higher transmission potential for ZIKV than Ae. albopictus regardless the combination of infection dose and incubation temperature.

Project description:BACKGROUND:A number of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue virus (DENV), Usutu virus (USUV), West Nile virus (WNV) are autochthonously transmitted in Europe and six invasive mosquito species have been detected in this temperate region. This has increased the risk for the emergence of further mosquito-borne diseases. However, there is a paucity of information on whether European populations of invasive mosquito species are competent to transmit arboviruses. In this study, the susceptibility of Aedes albopictus originating from Spain and a laboratory-adapted colony of Aedes aegypti, was assessed for infection with, and transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV). Vertical transmission in both species was also assessed. METHODS:Aedes albopictus colonised from eggs collected in Spain and an existing colony of Ae. aegypti were fed infectious blood meals containing ZIKV (Polynesian strain) at 1.6 × 107 PFU/ml. Blood-fed mosquitoes were separated and maintained at 20 °C or 25 °C. Legs, saliva and bodies were sampled from specimens at 7, 14 and 21 days post-infection (dpi) in order to determine infection, dissemination and transmission rates. All samples were analysed by real-time RT-PCR using primers targeting the ZIKV NS1 gene. RESULTS:At 14 dpi and 21 dpi, ZIKV RNA was detected in the bodies of both species at both temperatures. However, live virus only was detected in the saliva of Ae. aegypti at 25 °C with a transmission rate of 44%. No evidence for virus expectoration was obtained for Ae. albopictus under any condition. Notably, ZIKV RNA was not detectable in the saliva of Ae. aegypti at 20 °C after 21 days. No vertical transmission of ZIKV was detected in this study. CONCLUSIONS:Experimental infection of Ae. albopictus colonized from Spain with ZIKV did not result in expectoration of virus in saliva in contrast to results for Ae. aegypti. No evidence of vertical transmission of virus was observed in this study. This suggests that this strain of Ae. albopictus is not competent for ZIKV transmission under the conditions tested.

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Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models.

Publications

Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models.

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