Dataset Information

Time series modeling of pertussis incidence in China from 2004 to 2018 with a novel wavelet based SARIMA-NAR hybrid model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

It is a daunting task to discontinue pertussis completely in China owing to its growing increase in the incidence. While basic to any formulation of prevention and control measures is early response for future epidemic trends. Discrete wavelet transform(DWT) has been emerged as a powerful tool in decomposing time series into different constituents, which facilitates better improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus we aim to integrate modeling approaches as a decision-making supportive tool for formulating health resources.

Methods

We constructed a novel hybrid method based on the pertussis morbidity cases from January 2004 to May 2018 in China, where the approximations and details decomposed by DWT were forecasted by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR), respectively. Then, the obtained values were aggregated as the final results predicted by the combined model. Finally, the performance was compared with the SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques.

Results

The hybrid technique at level 2 of db2 wavelet including a SARIMA(0,1,3)(1,0,0)12modelfor the approximation-forecasting and NAR model with 12 hidden units and 4 delays for the detail d1-forecasting, along with another NAR model with 11 hidden units and 5 delays for the detail d2-forecasting notably outperformed other wavelets, SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques in terms of the mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Descriptive statistics exhibited that a substantial rise was observed in the notifications from 2013 to 2018, and there was an apparent seasonality with summer peak. Moreover, the trend was projected to continue upwards in the near future.

Conclusions

This hybrid approach has an outstanding ability to improve the prediction accuracy relative to the others, which can be of great help in the prevention of pertussis. Besides, under current trend of pertussis morbidity, it is required to urgently address strategically within the proper policy adopted.

SUBMITTER: Wang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6306235 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundScarlet fever is recognized as being a major public health issue owing to its increase in notifications in mainland China, and an advanced response based on forecasting techniques is being adopted to tackle this. Here, we construct a new hybrid method incorporating seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive with external input(NARX) to analyze its seasonality and trend in order to efficiently prevent and control this re-emerging disease.MethodsFour statistical models, including a basic SARIMA, basic nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) method, traditional SARIMA-NAR and new SARIMA-NARX hybrid approaches, were developed based on scarlet fever incidence data between January 2004 and July 2018 to evaluate its temporal patterns, and their mimic and predictive capacities were compared to discover the optimal using the mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, mean error rate, and root mean square percentage error.ResultsThe four preferred models identified were comprised of the SARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)12, NAR with 14 hidden neurons and five delays, SARIMA-NAR with 33 hidden neurons and five delays, and SARIMA-NARX with 16 hidden neurons and 4 delays. Among which presenting the lowest values of the aforementioned indices in both simulation and prediction horizons is the SARIMA-NARX method. Analyses from the data suggested that scarlet fever was a seasonal disease with predominant peaks of summer and winter and a substantial rising trend in the scarlet fever notifications was observed with an acceleration of 9.641% annually, particularly since 2011 with 12.869%, and moreover such a trend will be projected to continue in the coming year.ConclusionsThe SARIMA-NARX technique has the promising ability to better consider both linearity and non-linearity behind scarlet fever data than the others, which significantly facilitates its prevention and intervention of scarlet fever. Besides, under current trend of ongoing resurgence, specific strategies and countermeasures should be formulated to target scarlet fever.

Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remained one of the world's most deadly chronic communicable diseases. Future TB incidence prediction is a benefit for intervention options and resource-allocation planning. We aimed to develop rapid univariate prediction models for epidemics forecasting employment.MethodsThe surveillance data regarding Taiwan monthly TB incidence rates which from January 2005 to June 2017 were utilized for simulation modelling and from July 2017 to December 2020 for model validation. The modeling approaches including the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), the Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and SARIMA-ETS hybrid algorithms were constructed and compared. The modeling performance of in-sample simulating training sets and pseudo-out-of-sample validating sets were evaluated by metrics of the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE).ResultsA total of 191,526 TB cases with a highest incidence rate in 2005 (72.5 per 100,000 person-year) and lowest in 2020 (33.2 per 100,000 person-year), from January-2005 to December-2020 showed a seasonality and steadily declining trend in Taiwan. The monthly incidence rates data were utilized to formulate these forecasting models. Through stepwise screening and assessing of the accuracy metrics, the optimized SARIMA(3,0,0)(2,1,0)12, ETS(A,A,A) and SARIMA-ETS-hybrid models were respectively selected as the candidate models. Regarding the outcome assessment of model performance, the SARIMA-ETS-hybrid model outperformed the ARIMA and ETS in the short term prediction with metrics of RMSE, MAE MAPE, and MASE of 0.084%, 0.067%, 0.646%, and 0.870%, during the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting period. After projecting ahead to the long term forecasting TB incidence rates, ETS model showed the best performance resulting as a 41.69% (range: 22.1-56.38%) reduction of TB epidemics in 2025 and a 54.48% (range: 33.7-68.7%) reduction in 2030 compared with the 2015 levels.ConclusionThis time series modeling might offer us a rapid surveillance tool for facilitating WHO's future TB elimination milestone. Our proposed SARIMA-ETS or ETS model outperformed the SARIMA in predicting less or 12-30 months ahead of epidemics, and all models showed better in short or medium-term forecasting than long-term forecasting.

Project description:BackgroundHealth policy interventions were expected to improve access to health care delivery, provide financial risk protection, besides reducing inequities that underlie geographic and socio-economic variation in population access to health care. This article examines whether health policy interventions and accelerated health investments in India during 2004-2018 could close the gap in inequity in health care utilization and access to public subsidy by different population groups. Did the poor and socio-economically vulnerable population gain from such government initiatives, compared to the rich and affluent sections of society? And whether the intended objective of improving equity between different regions of the country been achieved during the policy initiatives? This article attempts to assess and provide robust evidence in the Indian context.MethodsEmploying Benefit-Incidence Analysis (BIA) framework, this paper advances earlier evidence by highlighting estimates of health care utilization, concentration and government subsidy by broader provider categories (public versus private) and across service levels (outpatient, inpatient, maternal, pre-and post-natal services). We used 2 waves of household surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) on health and morbidity. The period of analysis was chosen to represent policy interventions spanning 2004 (pre-policy) and 2018 (post-policy era). We present this evidence across three categories of Indian states, namely, high-focus states, high-focus north eastern states and non-focus states. Such categorization facilitates quantification of reform impact of policy level interventions across the three groups.ResultsUtilisation of healthcare services, except outpatient care visits, accelerated significantly in 2018 from 2004. The difference in utilisation rates between poor and rich (between poorest 20% and richest 20%) had significantly declined during the same period. As far as concentration of healthcare is concerned, the Concentrate Index (CI) underlying inpatient care in public sector fell from 0.07 in 2004 to 0.05 in 2018, implying less pro-rich distribution. The CI in relation to pre-natal, institutional delivery and postnatal services in government facilities were pro-poor both in 2004 and 2018 in all 3 groups of states. The distribution of public subsidy underscoring curative services (inpatient and outpatient) remained pro-rich in 2004 but turned less pro-rich in 2018, measured by CIs which declined sharply across all groups of states for both outpatient (from 0.21 in 2004 to 0.16 in 2018) and inpatient (from 0.24 in 2004 to 0.14 in 2018) respectively. The CI for subsidy on prenatal services declined from approximately 0.01 in 2004 to 0.12 in 2018. In respect to post-natal care, similar results were observed, implying the subsidy on prenatal and post-natal services was overwhelmingly received by poor. The CI underscoring subsidy for institutional delivery although remained positive both in 2018 and 2004, but slightly increased from 0.17 in 2004 to 0.28 in 2018.ConclusionsImprovement in infrastructure and service provisioning through NHM route in the public facilities appears to have relatively benefited the poor. Yet they received a relatively smaller health subsidy than the rich when utilising inpatient and outpatient health services. Inequality continues to persist across all healthcare services in private health sector. Although the NHM remained committed to broader expansion of health care services, a singular focus on maternal and child health conditions especially in backward regions of the country has yielded desired results.