Dataset Information

The long-term effects of meteorological parameters on pertussis infections in Chongqing, China, 2004-2018.

ABSTRACT: Evidence on the long-term influence of climatic variables on pertussis is limited. This study aims to explore the long-term quantitative relationship between weather variability and pertussis. Data on the monthly number of pertussis cases and weather parameters in Chongqing in the period of 2004-2018 were collected. Then, we used a negative binomial multivariable regression model and cointegration testing to examine the association of variations in monthly meteorological parameters and pertussis. Descriptive statistics exhibited that the pertussis incidence rose from 0.251 per 100,000 people in 2004 to 3.661 per 100,000 persons in 2018, and pertussis was a seasonal illness, peaked in spring and summer. The results from the regression model that allowed for the long-term trends, seasonality, autoregression, and delayed effects after correcting for overdispersion showed that a 1 hPa increment in the delayed one-month air pressure contributed to a 3.559% (95% CI 0.746-6.293%) reduction in the monthly number of pertussis cases; a 10 mm increment in the monthly aggregate precipitation, a 1 °C increment in the monthly average temperature, and a 1 m/s increment in the monthly average wind velocity resulted in 3.641% (95% CI 0.960-6.330%), 19.496% (95% CI 2.368-39.490%), and 3.812 (95% CI 1.243-11.690)-fold increases in the monthly number of pertussis cases, respectively. The roles of the mentioned weather parameters in the transmission of pertussis were also evidenced by a sensitivity analysis. The cointegration testing suggested a significant value among variables. Climatic factors, particularly monthly temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity, play a role in the transmission of pertussis. This finding will be of great help in understanding the epidemic trends of pertussis in the future, and weather variability should be taken into account in the prevention and control of pertussis.

SUBMITTER: Wang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7560825 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The long-term effects of meteorological parameters on pertussis infections in Chongqing, China, 2004-2018.

Wang Yongbin Y Xu Chunjie C Ren Jingchao J Zhao Yingzheng Y Li Yuchun Y Wang Lei L Yao Sanqiao S

Scientific reports 20201014 1

Evidence on the long-term influence of climatic variables on pertussis is limited. This study aims to explore the long-term quantitative relationship between weather variability and pertussis. Data on the monthly number of pertussis cases and weather parameters in Chongqing in the period of 2004-2018 were collected. Then, we used a negative binomial multivariable regression model and cointegration testing to examine the association of variations in monthly meteorological parameters and pertussis ...[more]

PMID: 33057239

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Project description:BackgroundIt is a daunting task to discontinue pertussis completely in China owing to its growing increase in the incidence. While basic to any formulation of prevention and control measures is early response for future epidemic trends. Discrete wavelet transform(DWT) has been emerged as a powerful tool in decomposing time series into different constituents, which facilitates better improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus we aim to integrate modeling approaches as a decision-making supportive tool for formulating health resources.MethodsWe constructed a novel hybrid method based on the pertussis morbidity cases from January 2004 to May 2018 in China, where the approximations and details decomposed by DWT were forecasted by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR), respectively. Then, the obtained values were aggregated as the final results predicted by the combined model. Finally, the performance was compared with the SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques.ResultsThe hybrid technique at level 2 of db2 wavelet including a SARIMA(0,1,3)(1,0,0)12modelfor the approximation-forecasting and NAR model with 12 hidden units and 4 delays for the detail d1-forecasting, along with another NAR model with 11 hidden units and 5 delays for the detail d2-forecasting notably outperformed other wavelets, SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques in terms of the mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Descriptive statistics exhibited that a substantial rise was observed in the notifications from 2013 to 2018, and there was an apparent seasonality with summer peak. Moreover, the trend was projected to continue upwards in the near future.ConclusionsThis hybrid approach has an outstanding ability to improve the prediction accuracy relative to the others, which can be of great help in the prevention of pertussis. Besides, under current trend of pertussis morbidity, it is required to urgently address strategically within the proper policy adopted.

Project description:Pollen is an important component of bioaerosol and the distribution of pollen and its relationship with meteorological parameters can be analyzed to better prevent hay fever. Pollen assemblages can also provide basic data for analyzing the relationship between bioaerosol and PM. We collected 82 samples of airborne pollen using a TSP large flow pollen collector from June 1, 2015 to June 1, 2016, from central Zhanjiang city in South China. We also conducted a survey of the nearby vegetation at the same time, in order to characterize the major plant types and their flowering times. We then used data on daily temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, vapor pressure and wind speed from a meteorological station in the center of Zhanjiang City to assess the relationship between the distribution of airborne pollen and meteorological parameters. Our main findings and conclusions are as follows: (1) We identified 15 major pollen types, including Pinus, Castanopsis, Myrica, Euphorbiaceae, Compositae, Gramineae, Microlepia and Polypodiaceae. From the vegetation survey, we found that the pollen from these taxa represented more than 75% of local pollen, while the pollen of Podocarpus, Dacrydium and other regional pollen types represented less than 25%. (2) The pollen concentrations varied significantly in different seasons. The pollen concentrations were at a maximum in spring, consisting mainly of tree pollen; the pollen concentrations were at an intermediate level in autumn and winter, consisting mainly of herb pollen and fern spores; and the pollen concentrations in summer were the lowest, consisting mainly of fern spores. (3) Analysis of the relationship between airborne pollen concentrations and meteorological parameters showed that variations in the pollen concentrations were mainly affected by temperature and relative humidity. In addition, there were substantial differences in these relationships in different seasons. In spring, pollen concentrations were mainly affected by temperature; in summer, they were mainly affected by the direction of the maximum wind speed; in autumn, they were mainly affected by relative humidity and temperature; and in winter, they were mainly affected by relative humidity and wind speed. Temperature and relative humidity promote plant growth and flowering. Notably, the variable wind direction in summer and the increased wind speed in winter and spring are conductive to pollen transmission. (4) Of the 15 major pollen types, Moraceae, Artemisia and Gramineae are the main allergenic pollen types, with peaks in concentration during April-May, August-September, and October-December, respectively. (5) Atypical weather conditions have substantial effects on pollen dispersal. In South China, the pollen concentrations in the sunny day were usually significantly higher than that of the rainy day. The pollen concentrations increased in short rainy days, which usually came from the Herb and Fern pollen. The pollen concentrations decreased in continuous rainy days especially for the Tree and Shrub pollen. the pollen concentrations in the sunny days were usually significantly higher than that in the rainy days. The pollen concentrations increased in short and strong rainfall.

Dataset Information

The long-term effects of meteorological parameters on pertussis infections in Chongqing, China, 2004-2018.

Publications

The long-term effects of meteorological parameters on pertussis infections in Chongqing, China, 2004-2018.

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