Simple Postoperative AKI Risk (SPARK) Classification before Noncardiac Surgery: A Prediction Index Development Study with External Validation.
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SUBMITTER: Park S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6317608 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Simple Postoperative AKI Risk (SPARK) Classification before Noncardiac Surgery: A Prediction Index Development Study with External Validation.
Park Sehoon S Cho Hyunjeong H Park Seokwoo S Lee Soojin S Kim Kwangsoo K Yoon Hyung Jin HJ Park Jiwon J Choi Yunhee Y Lee Suehyun S Kim Ju Han JH Kim Sejoong S Chin Ho Jun HJ Kim Dong Ki DK Joo Kwon Wook KW Kim Yon Su YS Lee Hajeong H
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN 20181218 1
<h4>Background</h4>Researchers have suggested models to predict the risk of postoperative AKI (PO-AKI), but an externally validated risk index that can be practically implemented before patients undergo noncardiac surgery is needed.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a retrospective observational study of patients without preexisting renal failure who underwent a noncardiac operation (≥1 hour) at two tertiary hospitals in Korea. We fitted a proportional odds model for an ordinal outcome consisting of t ...[more]
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Project description:ImportanceSevere acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious postoperative complication. A tool for predicting the risk of AKI requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT) after major noncardiac surgery might assist with patient counseling and targeted use of measures to reduce this risk.ObjectiveTo derive and validate a predictive model for AKI requiring KRT after major noncardiac surgery.Design, setting, and participantsIn this prognostic study, 5 risk prediction models were derived and internally validated in a population-based cohort of adults without preexisting kidney failure who underwent noncardiac surgery in Alberta, Canada, between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2013. The best performing model and corresponding risk index were externally validated in a population-based cohort of adults without preexisting kidney failure who underwent noncardiac surgery in Ontario, Canada, between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2017. Data analysis was conducted from September 1, 2019, to May 31, 2021.ExposuresDemographic characteristics, surgery type, laboratory measures, and comorbidities before surgery.Main outcomes and measuresAcute kidney injury requiring KRT within 14 days after surgery. Discrimination was assessed using the C statistic; calibration was assessed using calibration intercept and slope. Logistic recalibration was used to optimize model calibration in the external validation cohort.ResultsThe derivation cohort included 92 114 patients (52.2% female; mean [SD] age, 62.3 [18.0] years), and the external validation cohort included 709 086 patients (50.8% female; mean [SD] age, 61.0 [16.0] years). A total of 529 patients (0.6%) developed postoperative AKI requiring KRT in the derivation cohort, and 2956 (0.4%) developed postoperative AKI requiring KRT in the external validation cohort. The following factors were consistently associated with the risk of AKI requiring KRT: younger age (40-69 years: odds ratio [OR], 2.07 [95% CI, 1.69-2.53]; <40 years: OR, 3.73 [95% CI, 2.61-5.33]), male sex (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.28-1.87), surgery type (colorectal: OR, 4.86 [95% CI, 3.28-7.18]; liver or pancreatic: OR, 6.46 [95% CI, 3.85-10.83]; other abdominal: OR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.66-2.89]; abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: OR, 19.34 [95% CI, 14.31-26.14]; other vascular: OR, 7.30 [95% CI, 5.48-9.73]; thoracic: OR, 3.41 [95% CI, 2.07-5.59]), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.97-0.97 per 1 mL/min/1.73 m2 increase), lower hemoglobin concentration (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99 per 0.1 g/dL increase), albuminuria (mild: OR, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.52-2.33]; heavy: OR, 3.74 [95% CI, 2.98-4.69]), history of myocardial infarction (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.32-2.03), and liver disease (mild: OR, 2.32 [95% CI, 1.66-3.24]; moderate or severe: OR, 4.96 [95% CI, 3.58-6.85]). In external validation, a final model including these variables showed excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.95-0.96), with sensitivity of 21.2%, specificity of 99.9%, positive predictive value of 38.1%, and negative predictive value of 99.7% at a predicted risk threshold of 10% or greater.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that this risk model can predict AKI requiring KRT after noncardiac surgery using routine preoperative data. The model may be feasible for implementation in clinical perioperative risk stratification for severe AKI.
| S-EPMC8383136 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Current guidelines for delaying surgery after coronary stent placement are based on stent type. However, the indication for the stent may be an important risk factor for postoperative major adverse cardiac events (MACE).To determine whether the clinical indication for a coronary stent is associated with postoperative MACE.Retrospective cohort study in patients at US Veterans Affairs hospitals who had a coronary stent placed between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2010, and underwent noncardiac surgery within the following 24 months. The association between the indication for stent and postoperative MACE rates was examined using logistic regression to control for patient and procedure factors.Three subgroups of stent indication were examined: (1) myocardial infarction (MI); (2) unstable angina; and (3) revascularization not associated with acute coronary syndrome (non-ACS).Composite 30-day postoperative MACE rates including all-cause mortality, MI, or revascularization.Among 26?661 patients (median [IQR] age, 68 [61.0-76.0] years; 98.4% male; 88.1% white) who underwent 41?815 surgical procedures within 24 months following coronary stent placement, the stent indication was MI in 32.8% of the procedures, unstable angina in 33.8%, and non-ACS in 33.4%. Postoperative MACE rates were significantly higher in the MI group (7.5%) compared with the unstable angina (2.7%) and non-ACS (2.6%) groups (P?<?.001). When surgery was performed within 3 months of percutaneous coronary intervention, adjusted odds of MACE were significantly higher in the MI group compared with the non-ACS group (odds ratio [OR]?=?5.25; 95% CI, 4.08-6.75). This risk decreased over time, although it remained significantly higher at 12 to 24 months from percutaneous coronary intervention (OR?=?1.95; 95% CI, 1.58-2.40). The adjusted odds of MACE for the unstable angina group were similar to those for the non-ACS group when surgery was performed within 3 months (OR?=?1.11; 95% CI, 0.80-1.53) or between 12 and 24 months (OR?=?1.08; 95% CI, 0.86-1.37) from stent placement. Stent type was not significantly associated with MACE regardless of indication.Surgery in patients with a coronary stent placed for MI was associated with increased postoperative MACE rates compared with other stent indications. The risk declined over time from PCI, and delaying surgery up to 6 months in this cohort of patients with stents may be important regardless of stent type.
| S-EPMC4893305 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectiveto determine whether incident postoperative delirium in elective older surgical patient was associated with increased risk for mortality, controlling for covariates of 5-year mortality.Designsecondary analysis of prospective cohort studies.Settingacademic Medical Center.Subjectspatients ≥65 years of age undergoing elective non-cardiac surgery.Outcomespostoperative assessments of delirium measured using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), mortality within 5 years of the index surgery was determined from National Death Index records.Resultspostoperative delirium occurred in 332/1,315 patients (25%). Five years after surgery, 175 patients (13.3%) were deceased. Older age was associated with an increased odds of mortality [odds ratio (OR) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.70] for those aged 70-79 years compared to those aged <70 years, and OR 3.29, 95% CI 2.14-5.06 for those aged >80 years. Other variables associated with 5-year mortality on bi-variate analyses were white race, self-rated functional status, lower preoperative cognitive status, higher risk score as measured by the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, higher surgical risk score, history of congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, renal disease, cancer, peripheral vascular disease and postoperative delirium. However, postoperative delirium was not associated with 5-year mortality on multi-variate logistic regression (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.85-1.65).Conclusionsour results showed that delirium was not associated with 5-year mortality in elective surgical patients after consideration of co-variates of mortality. Our results suggest the importance of accounting for known preoperative risks for mortality when investigating the relationship between delirium and long-term mortality.
| S-EPMC7583520 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery, but little is known about its incidence and natural course after noncardiac surgery. We evaluated the natural course and clinical impact of POAF and the long-term impact of anticoagulation therapy in patients without a history of atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing noncardiac surgery. Methods and Results We retrospectively analyzed the database of Asan Medical Center (Seoul, Korea) to identify patients who developed new-onset POAF after undergoing noncardiac surgery between January 2006 and January 2016. The main outcomes were AF recurrence, thromboembolic event, and major bleeding during follow-up. Of 322 688 patients who underwent noncardiac surgery, 315 patients (mean age, 66.4 years; 64.4% male) had new-onset POAF with regular rhythm monitoring after discharge. AF recurred in 53 (16.8%) during 2 years of follow-up. Hypertension (hazard ratio, 2.12; P=0.02), moderate-to-severe left atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.33; P=0.007) were independently associated with recurrence. Patients with recurrent AF had higher risks of thromboembolic events (11.2% versus 0.8%; P<0.001) and major bleeding (26.9% versus 4.1%; P<0.001) than those without recurrence. Patients with recurrent AF and without anticoagulation were especially predisposed to thromboembolic events (P<0.001). Overall, anticoagulation therapy was not significantly associated with thromboembolic events (1.4% versus 2.5%, P=0.95). Conclusions AF recurred in 16.8% of patients with POAF after noncardiac surgery. AF recurrence was associated with higher risks of adverse clinical outcomes. Considering the high risk of anticoagulation-related bleeding, the benefits of routine anticoagulation should be carefully weighed in this population. Active surveillance for AF recurrence is warranted.
| S-EPMC8174377 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPreoperative anaemia is associated with elevated risks of postoperative complications. This association may be explained by confounding related to poor cardiopulmonary fitness. We conducted a pre-specified substudy of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study to examine the associations of preoperative haemoglobin concentration with preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing performance (peak oxygen consumption, anaerobic threshold) and postoperative complications.MethodsThe substudy included a nested cross-sectional analysis and nested cohort analysis. In the cross-sectional study (1279 participants), multivariate linear regression modelling was used to determine the adjusted association of haemoglobin concentration with peak oxygen consumption and anaerobic threshold. In the nested cohort study (1256 participants), multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to determine the adjusted association of haemoglobin concentration, peak oxygen consumption, and anaerobic threshold with the primary endpoint (composite outcome of death, cardiovascular complications, acute kidney injury, or surgical site infection) and secondary endpoint (moderate or severe complications).ResultsHaemoglobin concentration explained 3.8% of the variation in peak oxygen consumption and anaerobic threshold (P<0.001). Although not associated with the primary endpoint, haemoglobin concentration was associated with moderate or severe complications after adjustment for peak oxygen consumption (odds ratio=0.86 per 10 g L-1 increase; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.96) or anaerobic threshold (odds ratio=0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.97). Lower peak oxygen consumption was associated with moderate or severe complications without effect modification by haemoglobin concentration (P=0.12).ConclusionHaemoglobin concentration explains a small proportion of variation in exercise capacity. Both anaemia and poor functional capacity are associated with postoperative complications and may therefore be modifiable targets for preoperative optimisation.
| S-EPMC6676367 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAbnormal cardiac repolarization, indicated by a prolongation of the QT interval, increases the risk for torsades de pointes, a potentially life-threatening arrhythmia. Many perioperatively administered drugs and conditions prolong the QT interval. Despite several reports of perioperative torsades de pointes, systematic evidence regarding perioperative QT interval prolongation is limited.MethodsSerial postoperative 12-lead electrocardiograms were obtained from 469 adult patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery under general anesthesia. Heart rate corrected QT-interval duration (Fridericia formula) was the primary outcome. All perioperatively administered drugs were recorded. Emphasis was placed on absolute QTc prolongation greater than 500 ms and relative increases of 30 and 60 ms.ResultsAt the end of surgery, 80% of the patients (345 of 429) experienced a significant QTc interval prolongation (ΔQTc 23 ± 26 ms (mean and SD), 95% CI 20-25 ms, P less than 0.001). Approximately 51% (219 of 429) had a QTc greater than 440 ms, and 4% (16 of 429) a QTc greater than 500 ms. In 39% (166 of 429), the ΔQTc was greater than 30 ms, in 8% (34 of 429) >60 ms, and in greater than 0.5% (2 of 429) >100 ms. No changes in ΔQTc occurred at subsequent time points. One patient developed torsades de pointes with a ΔQTc: 29 ms (0.4% incidence rate). Several drugs had a large effect on ΔQTc: isoflurane, methadone, ketorolac, cefoxitin, zosyn, unasyn, epinephrine, ephedrine, and calcium. Postoperative body temperature had a weak negative correlation with ΔQTc (r = -0.15, P = 0.02); serum magnesium, potassium, and calcium concentrations were not correlated.ConclusionPostoperative QT-interval prolongation is common. Several perioperatively administered drugs are associated with a substantial QT-interval prolongation. The exact cause and its clinical relevance are, however, unclear. Nevertheless, an association between postoperative QT prolongation and risk for torsades de pointes is likely.
| S-EPMC3406265 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo assess the efficacy of haloperidol in reducing postoperative delirium in individuals undergoing thoracic surgery.DesignRandomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial.SettingSurgical intensive care unit (ICU) of tertiary care center.ParticipantsIndividuals undergoing thoracic surgery (N=135).InterventionLow-dose intravenous haloperidol (0.5 mg three times daily for a total of 11 doses) administered postoperatively.MeasurementsThe primary outcome was delirium incidence during hospitalization. Secondary outcomes were time to delirium, delirium duration, delirium severity, and ICU and hospital length of stay. Delirium was assessed using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU and delirium severity using the Delirium Rating Scale-Revised.ResultsSixty-eight participants were randomized to receive haloperidol and 67 placebo. No significant differences were observed between those receiving haloperidol and those receiving placebo in incident delirium (n=15 (22.1%) vs n=19 (28.4%); p = .43), time to delirium (p = .43), delirium duration (median 1 day, interquartile range (IQR) 1-2 days vs median 1 day, IQR 1-2 days; p = .71), delirium severity, ICU length of stay (median 2.2 days, IQR 1-3.3 days vs median 2.3 days, IQR 1-4 days; p = .29), or hospital length of stay (median 10 days, IQR 8-11.5 days vs median 10 days, IQR 8-12 days; p = .41). In the esophagectomy subgroup (n = 84), the haloperidol group was less likely to experience incident delirium (n=10 (23.8%) vs n=17 (40.5%); p = .16). There were no differences in time to delirium (p = .14), delirium duration (median 1 day, IQR 1-2 days vs median 1 day, IQR 1-2 days; p = .71), delirium severity, or hospital length of stay (median 11 days, IQR 10-12 days vs median days 11, IQR 10-15 days; p = .26). ICU length of stay was significantly shorter in the haloperidol group (median 2.8 days, IQR 1.1-3.8 days vs median 3.1 days, IQR 2.1-5.1 days; p = .03). Safety events were comparable between the groups.ConclusionLow-dose postoperative haloperidol did not reduce delirium in individuals undergoing thoracic surgery but may be efficacious in those undergoing esophagectomy. J Am Geriatr Soc 66:2289-2297, 2018.
| S-EPMC10924437 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe Simple Postoperative AKI Risk (SPARK) index is a prediction model for postoperative acute kidney injury (PO-AKI) in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. External validation has not been performed.ObjectiveTo externally validate the SPARK index.Design, setting, and participantsThis single-center retrospective cohort study included adults who underwent noncardiac surgery under general anesthesia from 2007 to 2011. Those with obstetric or urological surgery, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, preoperative dialysis, or an expected surgical duration of less than 1 hour were excluded. The study was conducted at Nara Medical University Hospital. Data analysis was conducted from January to July 2021.ExposuresRisk factors for AKI included in SPARK index.Main outcomes and measuresPO-AKI, defined as an increase in serum creatinine of at least 0.3 mg/dL within 48 hours or 150% compared with preoperative baseline value or urine output of less than 0.5 mL/kg/h for at least 6 hours within 1 week after surgery, and critical AKI, defined as either AKI stage 2 or greater and/or any AKI connected to postoperative death or requiring kidney replacement therapy before discharge. The discrimination and calibration of the SPARK index were examined with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration plots, respectively.ResultsAmong 5135 participants (2410 [46.9%] men), 303 (5.9%) developed PO-AKI, and 137 (2.7%) developed critical AKI. Compared with the SPARK cohort, participants in our cohort were older (median [IQR] age, 56 [44-66] years vs 63 [50-73] years), had lower baseline eGFR (median [IQR], 82.1 [71.4-95.1] mL/min/1.73 m2 vs 78.2 [65.6-92.2] mL/min/1.73 m2), and had a higher prevalence of comorbidities (eg, diabetes: 3956 of 51 041 [7.8%] vs 802 [15.6%]). The incidence of PO-AKI and critical AKI increased as the scores on the SPARK index increased. For example, 10 of 593 participants (1.7%) in SPARK class A, indicating lowest risk, experienced PO-AKI, while 53 of 332 (16.0%) in SPARK class D, indicating highest risk, experienced PO-AKI. However, AUCs for PO-AKI and critical AKI were 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.70) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.57-0.67), respectively, and the calibration was poor (PO-AKI: y = 0.24x + 3.28; R2 = 0.86; critical AKI: y = 0.20x + 2.08; R2 = 0.51). Older age, diabetes, expected surgical duration, emergency surgery, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockade use, and hyponatremia were not associated with PO-AKI in our cohort, resulting in overestimation of the predicted probability of AKI in our cohort.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, the incidence of PO-AKI increased as the scores on the SPARK index increased. However, the predicted probability might not be accurate in cohorts with older patients with more comorbidities.
| S-EPMC8524308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPostoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) and delirium are the most common perioperative cognitive complications in older adults undergoing surgery. A recent study of cardiac surgery patients suggests that physical frailty is a risk factor for both complications. We sought to examine the relationship between preoperative frailty and postoperative delirium and preoperative frailty and POCD after major noncardiac surgery.MethodsWe performed a prospective cohort study of patients >65 years old having major elective noncardiac surgery with general anesthesia. Exclusion criteria were preexisting dementia, inability to consent, cardiac, intracranial, or emergency surgery. Preoperative frailty was determined using the FRAIL scale, a simple questionnaire that categorizes patients as robust, prefrail, or frail. Delirium was assessed with the Confusion Assessment Method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU) twice daily, starting in the recovery room until hospital discharge. All patients were assessed with neuropsychological tests (California Verbal Learning Test II, Trail Making Test, subtests from the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, Logical Memory Story A, Immediate and Delayed Recall, Animal and Vegetable verbal fluency, Boston Naming Test, and the Mini-Mental Status Examination) before surgery and at 3 months afterward.ResultsA total of 178 patients met inclusion criteria; 167 underwent major surgery and 150 were available for follow-up 3 months after surgery. The median age was 70 years old. Thirty-one patients (18.6%) tested as frail, and 72 (43.1%) prefrail before surgery. After adjustment for baseline cognitive score, age, education, surgery duration, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status, type of surgery, and sex, patients who tested frail or prefrail had an estimated 2.7 times the odds of delirium (97.5% confidence interval, 1.0-7.3) when compared to patients who were robust. There was no significant difference between the proportion of POCD between patients who tested as frail, prefrail, or robust.ConclusionsAfter adjustment for baseline cognition, testing as frail or prefrail with the FRAIL scale is associated with increased odds of postoperative delirium, but not POCD after noncardiac surgery.
| S-EPMC7875454 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPostoperative pulmonary complication (PPC) is a leading cause of mortality and poor outcomes in postoperative patients. No studies have enrolled intensive care unit (ICU) patients after noncardiac thoracic surgery, and effective prediction models for PPC have not been developed. This study aimed to explore the incidence and risk factors and construct prediction models for PPC in these patients.MethodsThis study retrospectively recruited patients admitted to the ICU after noncardiac thoracic surgery at West China Hospital, Sichuan University, from July 2019 to December 2022. The patients were randomly divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort at a 70% versus 30% ratio. The preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative variables during the ICU stay were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to identify candidate predictors, establish prediction models, and compare the accuracy of the models with that of reported risk models.ResultsA total of 475 ICU patients were enrolled after noncardiac thoracic surgery (median age, 58; 72% male). At least one PPC occurred in 171 patients (36.0%), and the most common PPC was pneumonia (153/475, 32.21%). PPC significantly increased the duration of mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001), length of ICU stay (p < 0.001), length of hospital stay (LOS) (p < 0.001), and rate of reintubation (p = 0.047) in ICU patients. Seven risk factors were identified, and then the prediction nomograms for PPC were constructed. At ICU admission, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.766, with a sensitivity of 0.71 and specificity of 0.60; after extubation, the AUC was 0.841, with a sensitivity of 0.75 and specificity of 0.83. The models showed robust discrimination in both the development cohort and the validation cohort, and they were well calibrated and more accurate than reported risk models.ConclusionsICU patients who underwent noncardiac thoracic surgery were at high risk of developing PPCs. Prediction nomograms were constructed and they were more accurate than reported risk models, with excellent sensitivity and specificity. Moreover, these findings could help assess individual PPC risk and enhance postoperative management of patients.
| S-EPMC11360767 | biostudies-literature