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Assessing the role of transmission chains in the spread of HIV-1 among men who have sex with men in Quebec, Canada.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Phylogenetics has been used to investigate HIV transmission among men who have sex with men. This study compares several methodologies to elucidate the role of transmission chains in the dynamics of HIV spread in Quebec, Canada. METHODS:The Quebec Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) genotyping program database now includes viral sequences from close to 4,000 HIV-positive individuals classified as Men who have Sex with Men (MSMs), collected between 1996 and early 2016. Assessment of chain expansion may depend on the partitioning scheme used, and so, we produce estimates from several methods: the conventional Bayesian and maximum likelihood-bootstrap methods, in combination with a variety of schemes for applying a maximum distance criterion, and two other algorithms, DM-PhyClus, a Bayesian algorithm that produces a measure of uncertainty for proposed partitions, and the Gap Procedure, a fast non-phylogenetic approach. Sequences obtained from individuals in the Primary HIV Infection (PHI) stage serve to identify incident cases. We focus on the period ranging from January 1st 2012 to February 1st 2016. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The analyses reveal considerable overlap between chain estimates obtained from conventional methods, thus leading to similar estimates of recent temporal expansion. The Gap Procedure and DM-PhyClus suggest however moderately different chains. Nevertheless, all estimates stress that longer older chains are responsible for a sizeable proportion of the sampled incident cases among MSMs. Curbing the HIV epidemic will require strategies aimed specifically at preventing such growth.

SUBMITTER: Villandre L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6402664 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the role of transmission chains in the spread of HIV-1 among men who have sex with men in Quebec, Canada.

Villandré Luc L Labbe Aurélie A Brenner Bluma B Ibanescu Ruxandra-Ilinca RI Roger Michel M Stephens David A DA

PloS one 20190306 3

<h4>Background</h4>Phylogenetics has been used to investigate HIV transmission among men who have sex with men. This study compares several methodologies to elucidate the role of transmission chains in the dynamics of HIV spread in Quebec, Canada.<h4>Methods</h4>The Quebec Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) genotyping program database now includes viral sequences from close to 4,000 HIV-positive individuals classified as Men who have Sex with Men (MSMs), collected between 1996 and early 2016. As ...[more]

PMID: 30840706

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Project description:IntroductionIn order to determine the impact of HIV prevention and care programs, it is essential to look at both HIV incidence and prevalence estimates and trends over time. We estimated the HIV incidence and prevalence and assessed the trend using data from three cross-sectional surveys of men who have sex with men (MSM) in two cities in Georgia.MethodsUsing respondent-driven sampling strategy, a total of 796 eligible MSM (18 years or older men with self-reported oral or anal sex with another man in past 12 months) were recruited in Tbilisi in 2010, 2012 and 2015 and 115 in Batumi 2015 into behavioral surveys and HIV testing. To estimate the HIV incidence, we divided the number MSM tested positive for HIV to the time at risk. We calculated the time at risk as years since age at first anal intercourse to the age at last HIV-negative test or the age at first HIV-positive test, accounted for the interval censorship. We calculated the respondent-driven sampling adjusted estimates for HIV prevalence and assessed the trend in Tbilisi by Chi2 test for trend. For HIV incidence rate, we used Kaplan Meier method to estimate the rates and assessed the subgroup differences by log-rank test.ResultsThe HIV prevalence was 14.9% in Batumi in 2015; it significantly increased in Tbilisi from 6.2% in 2010 to 14.1% in 2012, and to 19.6% in 2015 (p-value for trend < 0.001). Likewise, the HIV incidence rate in Tbilisi significantly increased form 0.45 per 100 person-years (PY) in 2010 to 0.98 per 100 PY in 2012 (p-value 0.01), and to 1.63 per 100 PY in 2015 (p-value < 0.001). HIV incidence rate was 1.37 per 100 PY in Batumi in 2015. In 2015, young MSM (Tbilisi: 3.71, Batumi: 3.92 per 100 PY, p-value< 0.008), single MSM (Tbilisi: 1.99, per 100 PY, p-value 0.03) and less educated MSM (Batumi: 1.86 per 100 PY, p-value 0.03) had higher HIV incidence than other MSM.ConclusionOur findings suggest the continuous transmission of HIV among MSM in Tbilisi and a high prevalence of HIV among MSM in Batumi and the critical need for scaling up the coverage and accessibility of combination prevention packages including rapid HIV diagnosis and treatment.

Dataset Information

Assessing the role of transmission chains in the spread of HIV-1 among men who have sex with men in Quebec, Canada.

Publications

Assessing the role of transmission chains in the spread of HIV-1 among men who have sex with men in Quebec, Canada.

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