Performance of Three Scoring Systems in Predicting Massive Transfusion in Patients with Unstable Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.
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ABSTRACT: Purpose
After trauma and surgery, upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the most common condition that can require massive transfusion (MT). The present study aimed to analyze and compare the prognostic performance of the Glasgow-Blatchford (GB), pre-endoscopy Rockall (PER), and modified early warning (MEW) scores for predicting MT in patients with unstable UGIB.Materials and methods
This retrospective observational study included patients with UGIB from March 2016 to February 2018. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was performed to examine the prognostic performance of the GB, PER, and MEW scoring systems. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for MT, after adjusting for relevant covariates. The primary outcome was MT.Results
Of the 484 included patients with unstable UGIB, 19 (3.9%) received an MT. The areas under the curves (AUCs) of the GB, PER, and MEW scores for MT were 0.577 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.531-0.621], 0.570 (95% CI, 0.525-0.615), and 0.767 (95% CI, 0.727-0.804), respectively. The AUC of the MEW score was significantly different from those of the GB and PER scores. In multivariate analysis, MEW score was independently associated with MT in patients with unstable UGIB (odds ratio, 1.495; 95% CI, 1.100-2.033; p=0.010).Conclusion
In unstable UGIB patients, MEW score had the best prognostic performance for MT among three scoring systems.
SUBMITTER: Lee DH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6433562 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background: Massive transfusion in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) was not investigated. We developed a new scoring system to predict massive transfusion and to enhance care and early resource mobilization. Methods: Massive transfusion was defined as transfusion with ≥10 units of red blood cells within the first 24 h. Data were extracted from a 10-year, six-hospital database. Logistic regression was applied to derive a risk score for massive transfusion using data from 2006 to 2010, in 24,736 patients (developmental cohort). The score was then validated using data from 2011 to 2015 in 27,449 patients (validation cohort). Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was performed to assess prediction accuracy. Results: Five characteristics were independently associated (p < .001) with massive transfusion: presence of band-form cells among white blood cells (band form >0), international normalized ratio (INR) >1.5, pulse >100 beats per minute or systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg (shock), haemoglobin <8.0 g/dL and endoscopic therapy. The new scoring system successfully discriminated well between UGIB patients requiring massive transfusion and those who did not in both cohorts (AUROC: 0.831, 95%CI: 0.827-0.836; AUROC: 0.822, 95% CI: 0.817-0.826, respectively). Conclusions: The new scoring system predicts massive transfusion requirement in patients with UGIB well. Key messages Massive transfusion is a life-saving management in massive upper gastrointestinal bleeding. How to identify patients requiring massive transfusion in upper gastrointestinal bleeding is poorly documented. Approximately 3.9% of upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients require massive transfusion. A new scoring system is developed to identify patients requiring massive transfusion with high accuracy.
| S-EPMC7877879 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To examine ethnicity's role in the etiology and outcome of upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH).UGIH is a serious condition with considerable associated morbidity and mortality.We analyzed 2196 patients admitted with acute UGIH between January 2006 and February 2012. Complete clinical data were gathered prospectively and entered into our GI Bleed Registry, which captures demographic and clinical variables. Results were analyzed using the ?² analyses and the analysis of variance techniques with Tukey multiple comparisons.Among 2196 patients, 620 (28%) were black, 625 (29%) white, 881 (40%) Hispanic, and 70 (3%) were members of other ethnicities. Gastroduodenal ulcers (25%), esophageal varices (25%), and esophagitis (12%) were the most frequently identified causes of UGIH. Blacks experienced a high rate of gastroduodenal ulcers (199/620), whereas Hispanics most commonly had esophageal varices. In all ethnicities, the most common cause of bleeding in patients younger than 35 or older than 65 years was gastroduodenal ulcer disease. However, among patients aged 35 to 64 years, there were differences in the etiology of UGIH. Blacks aged 50 to 64 years frequently experienced gastroduodenal ulcers, whereas Hispanics aged 35 to 49 years typically had esophageal varices. Rebleeding rates were significantly lower in whites (5.8%) than in Hispanics (9.9%) or blacks (8.7%) (P=0.02).By examining a diverse population, we conclude that UGIH may follow trends. Hispanics were likely to have esophageal varices and higher rebleeding rates, whereas blacks were likely to have ulcers and the highest mortality. Whites were equally likely to have ulcers or varices, but a lower rate of rebleeding.
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Project description:Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Design International multicentre prospective study.Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.Conclusions The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.
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Project description:ObjectiveWe aimed to identify the clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic features associated with in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), focusing on cross-validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (RS), and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index (CSMCPI) scoring systems.MethodsOur prospective cross-sectional study included 156 patients with AUGIB. Several statistical approaches were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the scoring systems.ResultsAll three scoring systems were able to accurately predict in-hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] > 0.9); however, the multiple logistic model separated the presence of hemodynamic instability (state of shock) and the CSMCPI as the only significant predictive risk factors. In compliance with the overall results, the CSMCPI was consistently found to be superior to the other two systems (highest AUC, highest sensitivity and specificity, highest positive and negative predictive values, highest positive likelihood ratio, lowest negative likelihood ratio, and 1-unit increase in CSMCPI associated with 6.3 times higher odds of mortality), outperforming the GBS and full RS.ConclusionsWe suggest consideration of the CSMCPI as a readily available and reliable tool for accurately predicting in-hospital mortality after AUGIB, thus providing an essential backbone in clinical decision-making.
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Project description:While erythromycin has caused numerous cases of acute liver failure (ALF), clarithromycin, a similar macrolide antibiotic, has caused only six reported cases of ALF. A new case of clarithromycin-associated ALF is reported with hepatic histopathology and exclusion of other etiologies by extensive workup, and the syndrome of clarithromycin-associated ALF is better characterized by systematic review. A 60-year-old nonalcoholic man, with normal baseline liver function tests, was admitted with diffuse abdominal pain and AST = 499 U/L and ALT = 539 U/L, six days after completing a 7-day course of clarithromycin 500 mg twice daily for suspected upper respiratory infection. AST and ALT each rose to about 1,000 U/L on day-2 of admission, and rose to ≥6,000 U/L on day-3, with development of severe hepatic encephalopathy and severe coagulopathy. Planned liver biopsy was cancelled due to coagulopathies. Extensive evaluation for infectious, immunologic, and metabolic causes of liver disease was negative. Abdominal computerized tomography and abdominal ultrasound with Doppler were unremarkable. The patient developed massive, acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding associated with coagulopathies. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy was planned after massive blood product transfusions, but the patient rapidly expired from hemorrhagic shock. Autopsy revealed a golden-brown heavy liver with massive hepatic necrosis and sinusoidal congestion. Rise of AST/ALT to about 1,000 U/L each was temporally incompatible with shock liver because this rise preceded the hemorrhagic shock, but the subsequent AST/ALT rise to ≥6,000 U/L each may have had a component of shock liver. The six previously reported cases were limited by failure to exclude hepatitis E (4), lack of liver biopsy (2), and uninterpretable liver biopsy (1) and by confounding potential etiologies including disulfiram, israpidine, or recent acetaminophen use (3), clarithromycin overdose (1), active alcohol use (1), and severe heart failure (1). Review of 6 previously reported and current case of clarithromycin-associated ALF revealed that patients had AST and ALT values in the thousands. Five patients died and 2 survived.
| S-EPMC7049424 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Blood transfusion remains an integral step in the management of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NV-UGIB), but its safety is being increasingly questioned in less severe cases. The authors aimed to measure 30-day and 2-year mortalities after blood transfusion for NV-UGIB.Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association of blood transfusion with mortality while adjusting for age, Charlson comorbidity score, the complete Rockall score for acute UGIB, admission status and medication intake prior to bleeding.Death from any cause at 30 days and 2 years after NV-UGIB.1340 patients presented with NV-UGIB< (808 men (60.3%), median age 67 years) of whom 564 (42.1%) were transfused. The overall mortality was 5.3% at 30 days and 26.0% at 2 years in all patients. Comparing subjects with a haemoglobin concentration greater than 10.0 g/dl who were transfused with those who were not, 30-day mortalities (95% CIs) were 11.5% (6.7 to 18.0) versus 3.6% (2.3 to 5.3), respectively, p<0.001, and 2-year mortalities (95% CIs) were 40% (32 to 49) versus 20% (17 to 23), p<0.001. After adjusting for age, Charlson score, Rockall score and haemoglobin, the HRs (95% CIs) for death after transfusion were 1.88 (1.00 to 3.55) (p=0.051) at 30 days and 1.71 (1.28 to 2.28), (p<0.001) at 2 years.In patients with moderately severe NV-UGIB, mortality is higher following blood transfusion. Whether this reflects selection bias, an effect of comorbidity or an effect of transfusion requires urgent prospective study.
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Project description:BACKGROUND: Several scoring systems have been developed to predict the risk of rebleeding or death in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). These risk scoring systems have not been validated in a new patient population outside the clinical context of the original study. AIMS: To assess internal and external validity of a simple risk scoring system recently developed by Rockall and coworkers. METHODS: Calibration and discrimination were assessed as measures of validity of the scoring system. Internal validity was assessed using an independent, but similar patient sample studied by Rockall and coworkers, after developing the scoring system (Rockall's validation sample). External validity was assessed using patients admitted to several hospitals in Amsterdam (Vreeburg's validation sample). Calibration was evaluated by a chi2 goodness of fit test, and discrimination was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Calibration indicated a poor fit in both validation samples for the prediction of rebleeding (p<0.0001, Vreeburg; p=0.007, Rockall), but a better fit for the prediction of mortality in both validation samples (p=0.2, Vreeburg; p=0.3, Rockall). The areas under the ROC curves were rather low in both validation samples for the prediction of rebleeding (0.61, Vreeburg; 0.70, Rockall), but higher for the prediction of mortality (0.73, Vreeburg; 0.81, Rockall). CONCLUSIONS: The risk scoring system developed by Rockall and coworkers is a clinically useful scoring system for stratifying patients with acute UGIB into high and low risk categories for mortality. For the prediction of rebleeding, however, the performance of this scoring system was unsatisfactory.
| S-EPMC1727413 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background and objectivesThere are few reports on temporary dialysis-requiring AKI as a risk factor for future upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). This study sought to explore the long-term association between dialysis-requiring AKI and UGIB.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsThis nationwide cohort study used data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients who recovered from dialysis-requiring AKI and matched controls were selected from hospitalized patients age ≥18 years between 1998 and 2006. The cumulative incidences of long-term de novo UGIB were calculated, and the risk factors of UGIB and mortality were identified using time-varying Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for subsequent CKD and ESRD after AKI.ResultsA total of 4565 AKI-recovery patients and the same number of matched patients without AKI were analyzed. After a median follow-up time of 2.33 years (interquartile range, 0.97-4.81 years), the incidence rates of UGIB were 50 (by stringent criterion) and 69 (by lenient criterion) per 1000 patient-years in the AKI-recovery group and 31 (by stringent criterion) and 48 (by lenient criterion) per 1000 patient-years in the non-AKI group (both P<0.001). When compared with patients in the non-AKI group, the multivariate hazard ratio (HR) for UGIB was 1.30 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.14 to 1.48) for dialysis-requiring AKI, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.53 to 2.20) for time-varying CKD, and 2.31 (95% CI, 1.92 to 2.79) for time-varying ESRD (all P<0.001). Finally, the risk for long-term mortality increased after UGIB (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.38) and dialysis-requiring AKI (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.54 to 1.78).ConclusionsRecovery from dialysis-requiring AKI was associated with future UGIB and mortality.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Specific prognostic models for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) have short and simple features, whereas intensive care unit (ICU) severity scales include more complicated parameters. Even though newly developed ICU severity scales have disease-specific properties, they still lack radiologic parameters, which is crucial for ICH. AIMS:To compare the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) III, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV, Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS), ICH, max-ICH, ICH functional outcome score (ICH-FOS), and Essen-ICH for prediction of in-hospital and one-year mortality of patients with ICH. METHODS:A single-center analysis of 137 patients with ICH was conducted over 5 years. The performance of scoring systems was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic analysis. The independent predictors of one-year mortality were investigated with a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The SAPS-III score was calculated both in the emergency department (ED) and ICU. RESULTS:Among the independent variables, the need for mechanical ventilation, hematoma volume, the presence of intraventricular hemorrhage, and hematoma originating from both lobar and nonlobar regions were found as the strongest predictor of one-year mortality. For in-hospital mortality, the discriminative power of SAPS-II, APACHE-IV, and LODS was excellent, and for SAPS-III-ICU and SAPS-III-ED, it was good. For one-year mortality, the discriminative power of SAPS-II, APACHE-IV, LODS, and SAPS-III-ICU was good, and for SAPS-III-ED, Essen-ICH, ICH, max-ICH, and ICH-FOS, it was fair. CONCLUSIONS:Although all three ICH-specific prognostic scales performed satisfactory results for predicting one-year mortality, the common intensive care severity scoring showed better performance. SAPS-III scores may be recommended for use in EDs after proper customization.
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