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Massive transfusion in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a new scoring system.

ABSTRACT: Background: Massive transfusion in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) was not investigated. We developed a new scoring system to predict massive transfusion and to enhance care and early resource mobilization. Methods: Massive transfusion was defined as transfusion with ?10 units of red blood cells within the first 24?h. Data were extracted from a 10-year, six-hospital database. Logistic regression was applied to derive a risk score for massive transfusion using data from 2006 to 2010, in 24,736 patients (developmental cohort). The score was then validated using data from 2011 to 2015 in 27,449 patients (validation cohort). Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was performed to assess prediction accuracy. Results: Five characteristics were independently associated (p?0), international normalized ratio (INR) >1.5, pulse >100 beats per minute or systolic blood pressure <100?mmHg (shock), haemoglobin <8.0?g/dL and endoscopic therapy. The new scoring system successfully discriminated well between UGIB patients requiring massive transfusion and those who did not in both cohorts (AUROC: 0.831, 95%CI: 0.827-0.836; AUROC: 0.822, 95% CI: 0.817-0.826, respectively). Conclusions: The new scoring system predicts massive transfusion requirement in patients with UGIB well. Key messages Massive transfusion is a life-saving management in massive upper gastrointestinal bleeding. How to identify patients requiring massive transfusion in upper gastrointestinal bleeding is poorly documented. Approximately 3.9% of upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients require massive transfusion. A new scoring system is developed to identify patients requiring massive transfusion with high accuracy.

SUBMITTER: Chen YC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7877879 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May - Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The benefits of transfusion for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) have not been well established; however, previous studies suggest that transfusion is associated with adverse outcomes. We performed an observational study using a 10-year database to analyze the association between red blood cell (RBC) transfusion and outcomes in patients with UGIB in the emergency department (ED). METHOD AND FINDINGS:All adult patients with UGIB were identified through diagnostic codes. Hospital mortality was the primary outcome; further bleeding was the secondary outcome. Logistic regression, propensity analyses, and conditional logistic regression were performed to determine factors associated with outcomes. Of 59,188 enrolled patients, 31.6% (n?=?18,705) received RBC transfusions within 24?h following presentation to the ED. Hospital mortality was noted in 3.9 and 10.6% of the patients in the non-RBC transfusion and RBC transfusion groups, respectively (P?<?0.001). RBC transfusion was associated with increased mortality risk (unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.75-3.16; P?<?0.001) among all patients and in the propensity-matched cohort (unadjusted OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.39-1.72; P?<?0.001). Further bleeding was noted in 5.6 and 33.8% of the patients in the non-RBC transfusion and RBC transfusion groups, respectively (P?<?0.001). RBC transfusion was associated with increased risk of further bleeding (unadjusted OR 8.60, 95% CI 8.16-9.06; P?<?0.001) among all patients and in the propensity-matched cohort (unadjusted OR 2.58, 95% CI 2.37-2.79; P?<?0.001). CONCLUSION:RBC transfusion was significantly associated with increased rates of hospital mortality and further bleeding in patients with UGIB. Although our findings have strengths, these results are not generalizable to all patients presenting with UGIB, especially patients presenting with exsanguinating bleeding. Additional prospective trials to guide optimal transfusion strategies in UGIB patients are needed.

Project description:BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most common, high risk emergency disorders in the western world. Almost nothing has been reported on longer term prognosis following upper GI bleeding. The aim of this study was to establish mortality up to three years following hospital admission with upper GI bleeding and its relationship with aetiology, co-morbidities and socio-demographic factors.MethodsSystematic record linkage of hospital inpatient and mortality data for 14 212 people in Wales, UK, hospitalised with upper GI bleeding between 1999 and 2004 with three year follow-up to 2007. The main outcome measures were mortality rates, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative survival.ResultsMortality at three years was 36.7% overall, based on 5215 fatalities. It was highest for upper GI malignancy (95% died within three years) and varices (52%). Compared with the general population, mortality was increased 27-fold during the first month after admission. It fell to 4.3 by month four, but remained significantly elevated during every month throughout the three years following admission. The most important independent prognostic predictors of mortality at three years were older age (mortality increased 53 fold for people aged 85 years and over compared with those under 40 years); oesophageal and gastric/duodenal malignancy (48 and 32 respectively) and gastric varices aetiologies (2.8) when compared with other bleeds; non-upper GI malignancy, liver disease and renal failure co-morbidities (15, 7.9 and 3.9); social deprivation (29% increase for quintile V vs I); incident bleeds as an inpatient (31% vs admitted with bleeding) and male patients (25% vs female).ConclusionOur study shows a high late as well as early mortality for upper GI bleeding, with very poor longer term prognosis following bleeding due to malignancies and varices. Aetiologies with the worst prognosis were often associated with high levels of social deprivation.

Project description:Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Design International multicentre prospective study.Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.Conclusions The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.

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Massive transfusion in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a new scoring system.

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