Dataset Information

Using a Scenario-Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk.

ABSTRACT: This study develops a coherent framework to detect those catchment types associated with a high risk of maladaptation to future flood risk. Using the "scenario-neutral" approach to impact assessment the sensitivity of Irish catchments to fluvial flooding is examined in the context of national climate change allowances. A predefined sensitivity domain is used to quantify flood responses to +2 °C mean annual temperature with incremental changes in the seasonality and mean of the annual precipitation cycle. The magnitude of the 20-year flood is simulated at each increment using two rainfall-runoff models (GR4J, NAM), then concatenated as response surfaces for 35 sample catchments. A typology of catchment sensitivity is developed using clustering and discriminant analysis of physical attributes. The same attributes are used to classify 215 ungauged/data-sparse catchments. To address possible redundancies, the exposure of different catchment types to projected climate is established using an objectively selected subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble. Hydrological model uncertainty is shown to significantly influence sensitivity and have a greater effect than ensemble bias. A national flood risk allowance of 20%, considering all 215 catchments is shown to afford protection against ~48% to 98% of the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 subset (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; 2070-2099), irrespective of hydrological model and catchment type. However, results indicate that assuming a standard national or regional allowance could lead to local over/under adaptation. Herein, catchments with relatively less storage are sensitive to seasonal amplification in the annual cycle of precipitation and warrant special attention.

SUBMITTER: Broderick C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6472323 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using a Scenario-Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk.

Broderick Ciaran C Murphy Conor C Wilby Robert L RL Matthews Tom T Prudhomme Christel C Adamson Mark M

Water resources research 20190207 2

This study develops a coherent framework to detect those catchment types associated with a high risk of maladaptation to future flood risk. Using the "scenario-neutral" approach to impact assessment the sensitivity of Irish catchments to fluvial flooding is examined in the context of national climate change allowances. A predefined sensitivity domain is used to quantify flood responses to +2 °C mean annual temperature with incremental changes in the seasonality and mean of the annual precipitati ...[more]

PMID: 31007298

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Project description:BackgroundIn oncology, Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) is not yet widely implemented due to uncertainties such as the required infrastructure and expertise, costs and reimbursements, and unknown pan-cancer clinical utility. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate possible future developments facilitating or impeding the use of WGS as a molecular diagnostic in oncology through scenario drafting.MethodsA four-step process was adopted for scenario drafting. First, the literature was searched for barriers and facilitators related to the implementation of WGS. Second, they were prioritized by international experts, and third, combined into coherent scenarios. Fourth, the scenarios were implemented in an online survey and their likelihood of taking place within 5 years was elicited from another group of experts. Based on the minimum, maximum, and most likely (mode) parameters, individual Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) probability density functions were determined. Subsequently, individual opinions were aggregated by performing unweighted linear pooling, from which summary statistics were extracted and reported.ResultsSixty-two unique barriers and facilitators were extracted from 70 articles. Price, clinical utility, and turnaround time of WGS were ranked as the most important aspects. Nine scenarios were developed and scored on likelihood by 18 experts. The scenario about introducing WGS as a clinical diagnostic with a lower price, shorter turnaround time, and improved degree of actionability, scored the highest likelihood (median: 68.3%). Scenarios with low likelihoods and strong consensus were about better treatment responses to more actionable targets (26.1%), and the effect of centralizing WGS (24.1%).ConclusionsBased on current expert opinions, the implementation of WGS as a clinical diagnostic in oncology is heavily dependent on the price, clinical utility (both in terms of identifying actionable targets as in adding sufficient value in subsequent treatment), and turnaround time. These aspects and the optimal way of service provision are the main drivers for the implementation of WGS and should be focused on in further research. More knowledge regarding these factors is needed to inform strategic decision making regarding the implementation of WGS, which warrants support from all relevant stakeholders.

Dataset Information

Using a Scenario-Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk.

Publications

Using a Scenario-Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk.

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