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Predicting postoperative delirium severity in older adults: The role of surgical risk and executive function.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Delirium is an important postoperative complication, yet predictive risk factors for postoperative delirium severity remain elusive. We hypothesized that the NSQIP risk calculation for serious complications (NSQIP-SC) or risk of death (NSQIP-D), and cognitive tests of executive function (Trail Making Tests A and B [TMTA and TMTB]), would be predictive of postoperative delirium severity. Further, we demonstrate how advanced statistical techniques can be used to identify candidate predictors. METHODS/DESIGN:Data from an ongoing perioperative prospective cohort study of 100 adults (65 y old or older) undergoing noncardiac surgery were analyzed. In addition to NSQIP-SC, NSQIP-D, TMTA, and TMTB, participant age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, tobacco use, surgery type, depression, Framingham risk score, and preoperative blood pressure were collected. The Delirium Rating Scale-R-98 (DRS) measured delirium severity; the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) identified delirium. LASSO and best subsets linear regression were employed to identify predictive risk factors. RESULTS:Ninety-seven participants with a mean age of 71.68 ± 4.55, 55% male (31/97 CAM+, 32%), and a mean peak DRS of 21.5 ± 6.40 were analyzed. LASSO and best subsets regression identified NSQIP-SC and TMTB to predict postoperative delirium severity (P < 00.001, adjusted R2 : 0.30). NSQIP-SC and TMTB were also selected as predictors for postoperative delirium incidence (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI, 0.72-0.90). CONCLUSIONS:In this cohort, we identified NSQIP risk score for serious complications and a measure of executive function, TMT-B, to predict postoperative delirium severity using advanced modeling techniques. Future studies should investigate the utility of these variables in a formal delirium severity prediction model.

SUBMITTER: Lindroth H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6579704 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting postoperative delirium severity in older adults: The role of surgical risk and executive function.

Lindroth Heidi H Bratzke Lisa L Twadell Sara S Rowley Paul P Kildow Janie J Danner Mara M Turner Lily L Hernandez Brandon B Brown Roger R Sanders Robert D RD

International journal of geriatric psychiatry 20190423 7

<h4>Objectives</h4>Delirium is an important postoperative complication, yet predictive risk factors for postoperative delirium severity remain elusive. We hypothesized that the NSQIP risk calculation for serious complications (NSQIP-SC) or risk of death (NSQIP-D), and cognitive tests of executive function (Trail Making Tests A and B [TMTA and TMTB]), would be predictive of postoperative delirium severity. Further, we demonstrate how advanced statistical techniques can be used to identify candida ...[more]

PMID: 30907449

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Project description:Background/objectiveCurrent preoperative assessment tools such as the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS Calculator) are suboptimal for evaluating older adults. The objective was to evaluate and compare the performance of the ACS Calculator for predicting risk of serious postoperative complications with the addition of self-reported physical function versus a frailty score.DesignProspective cohort.SettingTwo tertiary care academic medical centers in Massachusetts.ParticipantsIndividuals aged 65 and older undergoing any surgery with a risk of serious complication of 5% or greater (N = 403).MeasurementsWe measured self-reported physical function using the Late-Life Function and Disability Instrument (LLFDI FUNCTION) and frailty phenotype (FP), which has a score ranging from 0 to 5 based on slow gait speed, weak handgrip, exhaustion, weight loss, or low activity. Using c-statistic and net classification improvement (NRI), we then analyzed capability of LLFDI-FUNCTION versus FP to improve the ACS Calculator for predicting an adverse postoperative course (serious complication, discharge to nursing home, readmission, death within 30 days of surgery). Increase in c-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI) for LLFDI-FUNCTION versus FP in addition to the ACS Calculator for predicting an adverse postoperative course (serious complication, discharge to nursing home, readmission, death within 30 days of surgery) RESULTS: Over 30 days, 26% of participants developed an adverse postoperative course. The increase in c-statistic for the ACS Calculator (baseline value 0.645) was slightly greater with LLFDI-FUNCTION (0.076) than with FP (0.058), with a bootstrapped difference in c-statistic of 0.005 (95% confidence interval = 0.002-0.007). NRI was also better with LLFDI-FUNCTION.ConclusionThe LLFDI-FUNCTION predicted postoperative complications slightly better than the FP. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and validate the use of the LLFDI-FUNCTION with the ACS Calculator for preoperative assessments of older adults.

Dataset Information

Predicting postoperative delirium severity in older adults: The role of surgical risk and executive function.

Publications

Predicting postoperative delirium severity in older adults: The role of surgical risk and executive function.

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