Dataset Information

Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT: Background:Dolutegravir is superior to efavirenz for HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) in newborns if used by women at conception. Objective:To project clinical outcomes of ART policies for women of child-bearing potential in South Africa. Design:Model of 3 strategies: efavirenz for all women of child-bearing potential (EFV), dolutegravir for all women of child-bearing potential (DTG), or World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended efavirenz without contraception or dolutegravir with contraception (WHO approach). Data Sources:Published data on NTD risks (efavirenz, 0.05%; dolutegravir, 0.67% [Tsepamo study]), 48-week ART efficacy with initiation (efavirenz, 60% to 91%; dolutegravir, 96%), and age-stratified fertility rates (2 to 139 per 1000 women). Target Population:3.1 million South African women with HIV (aged 15 to 49 years) starting or continuing first-line ART, and their children. Time Horizon:5 years. Perspective:Societal. Intervention:EFV, DTG, and WHO approach. Outcome Measures:Deaths among women and children, sexual and pediatric HIV transmissions, and NTDs. Results of Base-Case Analysis:Compared with EFV, DTG averted 13 700 women's deaths (0.44% decrease) and 57 700 sexual HIV transmissions, but increased total pediatric deaths by 4400 because of more NTDs. The WHO approach offered some benefits compared with EFV, averting 4900 women's deaths and 20 500 sexual transmissions while adding 300 pediatric deaths. Overall, combined deaths among women and children were lowest with DTG (358 000 deaths) compared with the WHO approach (362 800 deaths) or EFV (367 300 deaths). Results of Sensitivity Analysis:Women's deaths averted with DTG exceeded pediatric deaths added with EFV unless dolutegravir-associated NTD risk was 1.5% or greater. Limitation:Uncertainty in NTD risks and dolutegravir efficacy in resource-limited settings, each examined in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion:Although NTD risks may be higher with dolutegravir than efavirenz, dolutegravir will lead to many fewer deaths among women, as well as fewer overall HIV transmissions. These results argue against a uniform policy of avoiding dolutegravir in women of child-bearing potential. Primary Funding Source:National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Massachusetts General Hospital; and Harvard University Center for AIDS Research.

SUBMITTER: Dugdale CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6736740 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study.

Dugdale Caitlin M CM Ciaranello Andrea L AL Bekker Linda-Gail LG Stern Madeline E ME Myer Landon L Wood Robin R Sax Paul E PE Abrams Elaine J EJ Freedberg Kenneth A KA Walensky Rochelle P RP

Annals of internal medicine 20190402 9

<h4>Background</h4>Dolutegravir is superior to efavirenz for HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) in newborns if used by women at conception.<h4>Objective</h4>To project clinical outcomes of ART policies for women of child-bearing potential in South Africa.<h4>Design</h4>Model of 3 strategies: efavirenz for all women of child-bearing potential (EFV), dolutegravir for all women of child-bearing potential (DTG), or World Healt ...[more]

PMID: 30934067

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Project description:BackgroundThe integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is being considered in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead of efavirenz for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of superior tolerability and a lower risk of resistance emergence. WHO requested updated modelling results for its 2019 Antiretroviral Guidelines update, which was restricted to the choice of dolutegravir or efavirenz in new ART initiators. In response to this request, we modelled the risks and benefits of alternative policies for initial first-line ART regimens.MethodsWe updated an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults to consider information on the risk of neural tube defects in women taking dolutegravir at time of conception, as well as the effects of dolutegravir on weight gain. The model accounted for drug resistance in determining viral suppression, with consequences for clinical outcomes and mother-to-child transmission. We sampled distributions of parameters to create various epidemic setting scenarios, which reflected the diversity of epidemic and programmatic situations in sub-Saharan Africa. For each setting scenario, we considered the situation in 2018 and compared ART initiation policies of an efavirenz-based regimen in women intending pregnancy, and a dolutegravir-based regimen in others, and a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy. We considered predicted outcomes over a 20-year period from 2019 to 2039, used a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted.FindingsConsidering updated information on risks and benefits, a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen rather than an efavirenz-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, is predicted to bring population health benefits (10 990 DALYs averted per year) and to be cost-saving (by $2·9 million per year), leading to a reduction in the overall population burden of disease of 16 735 net DALYs per year for a country with an adult population size of 10 million. The policy involving ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen in women intending pregnancy was cost-effective in 87% of our setting scenarios and this finding was robust in various sensitivity analyses, including around the potential negative effects of weight gain.InterpretationIn the context of a range of modelled setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa, we found that a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, was predicted to bring population health benefits and be cost-effective, supporting WHO's strong recommendation for dolutegravir as a preferred drug for ART initiators.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundThe integrase inhibitor dolutegravir could have a major role in future antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens in sub-Saharan Africa because of its high potency and barrier to resistance, good tolerability, and low cost, but there is uncertainty over appropriate policies for use relating to the potential for drug resistance spread and a possible increased risk of neural tube defects in infants if used in women at the time of conception. We used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART with the aim of informing policy makers on approaches to the use of dolutegravir that are likely to lead to the highest population health gains.MethodsWe used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults, which takes into account the effects of drug resistance and differential drug potency in determining viral suppression and clinical outcomes to compare predicted outcomes of alternative ART regimen policies. We calculated disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) for each policy, assuming that a woman having a child with a neural tube defect incurs an extra DALY per year for the remainder of the time horizon and accounting for mother-to-child transmission. We used a 20 year time horizon, a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted.FindingsThe greatest number of DALYs is predicted to be averted with use of a policy in which tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir is used in all people on ART, including switching to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir in those currently on ART, regardless of current viral load suppression and intention to have (more) children. This result was consistent in several sensitivity analyses. We predict that this policy would be cost-saving.InterpretationUsing a standard DALY framework to compare health outcomes from a public health perspective, the benefits of transition to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for all substantially outweighed the risks.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundRising resistance of HIV-1 to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) threatens the success of the global scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The switch to WHO-recommended dolutegravir (DTG)-based regimens could reduce this threat due to DTG's high genetic barrier to resistance. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of the scale-up of DTG-based ART on NNRTI pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) in South Africa, 2020 to 2040.Methods and findingsWe adapted the Modeling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa (MARISA) model, an epidemiological model of the transmission of NNRTI resistance in South Africa. We modeled the introduction of DTG in 2020 under 2 scenarios: DTG as first-line regimen for ART initiators, or DTG for all patients, including patients on suppressive NNRTI-based ART. Given the safety concerns related to DTG during pregnancy, we assessed the impact of prescribing DTG to all men and in addition to (1) women beyond reproductive age; (2) women beyond reproductive age or using contraception; and (3) all women. The model projections show that, compared to the continuation of NNRTI-based ART, introducing DTG would lead to a reduction in NNRTI PDR in all scenarios if ART initiators are started on a DTG-based regimen, and those on NNRTI-based regimens are rapidly switched to DTG. NNRTI PDR would continue to increase if DTG-based ART was restricted to men. When given to all men and women, DTG-based ART could reduce the level of NNRTI PDR from 52.4% (without DTG) to 10.4% (with universal DTG) in 2040. If only men and women beyond reproductive age or on contraception are started on or switched to DTG-based ART, NNRTI PDR would reach 25.9% in 2040. Limitations include substantial uncertainty due to the long-term predictions and the current scarcity of knowledge about DTG efficacy in South Africa.ConclusionsOur model shows the potential benefit of scaling up DTG-based regimens for halting the rise of NNRTI resistance. Starting or switching all men and women to DTG would lead to a sustained decline in resistance levels, whereas using DTG-based ART in all men, or in men and women beyond childbearing age, would only slow down the increase in levels of NNRTI PDR.

Dataset Information

Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study.

Publications

Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study.

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