Dataset Information

Nomogram Development and External Validation for Predicting the Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) risk is crucial in determining further treatment strategies following endoscopic resection of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to establish a new prediction model for the risk of LNM in T1 CRC patients.

Materials and methods

The development set included 833 patients with T1 CRC who had undergone endoscopic (n=154) or surgical (n=679) resection at the National Cancer Center. The validation set included 722 T1 CRC patients who had undergone endoscopic (n=249) or surgical (n=473) resection at Daehang Hospital. A logistic regression model was used to construct the prediction model. To assess the performance of prediction model, discrimination was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with area under the ROC curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test.

Results

Five independent risk factors were determined in the multivariable model, including vascular invasion, high-grade histology, submucosal invasion, budding, and background adenoma. In final prediction model, the performance of the model was good that the AUC was 0.812 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.770 to 0.855) and the HL chi-squared test statistic was 1.266 (p=0.737). In external validation, the performance was still good that the AUC was 0.771 (95% CI, 0.708 to 0.834) and the p-value of the HL chi-squared test was 0.040. We constructed the nomogram with the final prediction model.

Conclusion

We presented an externally validated new prediction model for LNM risk in T1 CRC patients, guiding decision making in determining whether additional surgery is required after endoscopic resection of T1 CRC.

SUBMITTER: Oh JR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6790837 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nomogram Development and External Validation for Predicting the Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer.

Oh Jung Ryul JR Park Boram B Lee Seongdae S Han Kyung Su KS Youk Eui-Gon EG Lee Doo-Han DH Kim Do-Sun DS Lee Doo-Seok DS Hong Chang Won CW Kim Byung Chang BC Kim Bun B Kim Min Jung MJ Park Sung Chan SC Sohn Dae Kyung DK Chang Hee Jin HJ Oh Jae Hwan JH

Cancer research and treatment 20190117 4

<h4>Purpose</h4>Predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) risk is crucial in determining further treatment strategies following endoscopic resection of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to establish a new prediction model for the risk of LNM in T1 CRC patients.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>The development set included 833 patients with T1 CRC who had undergone endoscopic (n=154) or surgical (n=679) resection at the National Cancer Center. The validation set included 722 T1 CRC patients w ...[more]

PMID: 30653743

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Project description:BackgroundDuctal carcinoma in situ with microinvasion (DCIS-MI) is a special type of breast cancer. It is an invasive lesion less than 1.0 mm in size related to simple ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Lymph node metastasis (LNM) in DCIS-MI often indicates a poor prognosis. Therefore, the management of lymph nodes plays a vital role in the treatment strategy of DCIS-MI. Since DCIS-MI is often diagnosed by postoperative paraffin section and immunohistochemical detection, to obtain the best clinical benefits for such patients, we aim to establish and verify a nomogram to predict the possibility of lymph node metastasis in DCIS-MI patients and help preoperative or intraoperative clinical decision-making.MethodsA retrospective analysis of patients with DCIS-MI in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2019 was performed. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The risk factors were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses in the training cohort, and a nomogram was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram in the training set and validation set. An independent data cohort was obtained from the Shanghai Jiao Tong University Breast Cancer Database (SJTU-BCDB) for external validation.ResultsThis study included 3951 female patients from SEER with DCIS-MI, including 244 patients with regional lymph node metastasis, accounting for 6.18% of the total. An independent test set of 323 patients from SJTU-BCDB was used for external validation. According to the multifactorial logistic regression analysis results, age at diagnosis, ethnicity, grade, and surgical modality were included in the prediction model. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were 0.739 (95% CI: 0.702~0.775), 0.732 (95% CI: 0.675~0.788), and 0.707 (95%CI: 0.607-0.807) in the training, validation and external test groups, suggesting that the column line graphs had excellent differentiation. The calibration curves slope was close to 1, and the model's predicted values were in good agreement with the actual values. The DCA curves showed good clinical utility.ConclusionIn this study, we constructed accurate and practical columnar maps with some clinical benefit to predict the likelihood of lymph node metastasis in patients with postoperatively diagnosed DCIS-MI and provide a reference value for specifying treatment strategies.

Dataset Information

Nomogram Development and External Validation for Predicting the Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer.

Purpose

Materials and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Nomogram Development and External Validation for Predicting the Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer.

Similar Datasets

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