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Estimation of fibrosis progression rates for chronic hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis update.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Mathematical models are increasingly important in planning for the upcoming chronic hepatitis C (CHC) elimination efforts. Such models require reliable natural history inputs to make accurate predictions on health and economic outcomes. Yet, hepatitis C virus disease progression is known to vary widely in the literature and published inputs are currently outdated. The objectives of this study were to obtain updated estimates of fibrosis progression rates (FPR) in treatment-naïve patients with CHC and to explore sources of heterogeneity. DESIGN:A systematic review was conducted using Ovid-MEDLINE, Ovid-EMBASE and PubMed databases (January 1990 to January 2018) to identify observational studies of hepatic fibrosis in treatment-naïve patients with CHC. OUTCOMES:Stage-constant FPRs were estimated for each study given the reported fibrosis scores and duration of infection. Stage-specific FPRs (ie, F0?F1; F1?F2; F2?F3; F3?F4) were estimated using Markov maximum likelihood estimation. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated by stratification and random-effects meta-regression. RESULTS:The review identified 111 studies involving 131 groups of patients (n=42 693). The pooled stage-constant FPR was 0.094 (95% CI 0.088 to 0.100); stage-specific FPRs were F0?F1: 0.107 (95% CI 0.097 to 0.118); F1?F2: 0.082 (95% CI 0.074 to 0.091); F2?F3: 0.117 (95% CI 0.107 to 0.129); F3?F4: 0.116 (95% CI 0.104 to 0.131). Stratified analysis revealed substantial variation in progression by study population. Meta-regression indicated associations between progression and infection age, duration, source, viral genotype and study population. Findings indicate that FPRs display substantial heterogeneity across study populations and pooled values from more homogenous subpopulations should be considered when estimating prognosis. CONCLUSIONS:This large meta-analysis presents updated prognostic estimates for CHC derived from newer studies using better diagnostic methods and improves estimates for important patient populations in terms of clinical policy (eg, injection drug users, non-clinical populations, liver clinic patients) and should be a valuable resource for patients, clinicians and clinical policymakers.

SUBMITTER: Erman A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6858137 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of fibrosis progression rates for chronic hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis update.

Erman Aysegul A Krahn Murray D MD Hansen Tawnya T Wong Josephine J Bielecki Joanna M JM Feld Jordan J JJ Wong William W L WWL Grootendorst Paul P Thein Hla-Hla HH

BMJ open 20191111 11

<h4>Objectives</h4>Mathematical models are increasingly important in planning for the upcoming chronic hepatitis C (CHC) elimination efforts. Such models require reliable natural history inputs to make accurate predictions on health and economic outcomes. Yet, hepatitis C virus disease progression is known to vary widely in the literature and published inputs are currently outdated. The objectives of this study were to obtain updated estimates of fibrosis progression rates (FPR) in treatment-naï ...[more]

PMID: 31719068

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Project description:Caries progression seems to follow universal, predictable rates, depending largely on the caries severity in populations: the higher the caries severity, the higher the progression rates. Quantification of these rates would allow prediction of future caries increments. Our aim was to describe caries progression rates in the primary and permanent dentition in Western populations (not in lesions) of children and adolescents. Therefore, we systematically searched MEDLINE-PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane library for studies reporting caries progression data. Eligibility criteria were reporting empirical data from at least 2 full-mouth dental caries examinations in a closed cohort during a follow-up of at least 3 y, a first examination after 1974, a second examination before the age of 22 y, caries assessed as dentine caries (d3/D3), and caries reported in dmfs/DMFS (decayed, missing, and filled surfaces), dmft/DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth), or caries-free participants. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement, we described the results for the primary and permanent dentition in a systematic review, performed a meta-analysis for the caries incidence rate in the permanent dentition, and conducted multivariate, hierarchical meta-regression analyses for the caries incidence rate and the increments in DMFS and DMFT. Of the 6,343 unique studies retrieved, 43 studies (56,376 participants) were included for systematic review and 32 for meta-analyses (39,429 participants). The annual decline in caries-free children in the permanent dentition ranged from 0.8% to 10.2%. The annual increment ranged from 0.07 to 1.77 in DMFS and from 0.06 to 0.73 in DMFT. The pooled caries incidence rate was 0.11 (0.09-0.13) per person-year at risk. Meta-regression analyses showed that the methods of individual studies influenced pooled caries incidence rates and increments in DMFS and DMFT. This should be taken into account in planning and evaluation of oral health care services. However, the caries incidence rate is promising for prediction of future caries increments in populations.

Project description:BackgroundMost people diagnosed with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) need treatment to help reduce the risk of liver disease and limit disease transmission. Therapeutic vaccine (TV) candidates have been under study for their clinical effects on inducing HBV-specific host immune responses. This review aimed to systematically synthesize updated evidence on the efficacy and safety of TVs in patients with CHB.MethodsThis systematic review was performed by searching different databases from January to February 2021. Completed randomized controlled trials that reported TVs' efficacy and/or safety for treating CHB compared with the standard of care (SOC) or placebo were included. Efficacy and safety estimates were reported as the logarithm of the odds ratio and risk differences, respectively. I2 > 50% was considered significant heterogeneity. Significant publication bias was considered when Egger's test P value < .10. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. The GRADE methodology was used to assess the certainty of the evidence for each outcome.ResultsTwenty-four articles with 2889 pooled samples were included. TVs made a significant difference in hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) SC (log OR = 0.76, P = .01) and (log OR = 0.40, P = .03) compared to placebo and combination therapy, respectively. HBeAg SC was significantly affected by TVs at the end of follow up (log OR = 0.49, P = .01), with significant HBsAg mean difference (MD = -0.62, P = .00). At the end of treatment, the TVs had no significant effect on HBV DNA negativity over the SOC (log OR = 0.62, P = .09) or placebo (log OR = -0.07, P = .91). TVs do not significantly affect the risk of serious adverse events (RD 0.02, 95% CI 0.00-0.04).ConclusionIn patients with CHB, TVs had significant effects on HBeAg SC compared to the SOC or placebo. There was no significant difference between serious adverse events. TVs are promising treatment strategy to overcome CHB.

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Dataset Information

Estimation of fibrosis progression rates for chronic hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis update.

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Estimation of fibrosis progression rates for chronic hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis update.

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