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Strategic investment in tuberculosis control in the Republic of Bulgaria.

ABSTRACT: As Bulgaria transitions away from Global Fund grant, robust estimates of the comparative impact of the various response strategies under consideration are needed to ensure sustained effectiveness of the tuberculosis (TB) programme. We tailored an established mathematical model for TB control to the epidemic in Bulgaria to project the likely outcomes of seven intervention scenarios. Under existing programmatic conditions projected forward, the country's targets for achieving TB elimination in the coming decades will not be achieved. No interventions under consideration were predicted to accelerate the baseline projected reduction in epidemiological indicators significantly. Discontinuation of the 'Open Doors' program and activities of non-governmental organisations would result in a marked exacerbation of the epidemic (increasing incidence in 2035 by 6-8% relative to baseline conditions projected forward). Changing to a short course regimen for multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) would substantially decrease MDR-TB mortality (by 21.6% in 2035 relative to baseline conditions projected forward). Changing to ambulatory care for eligible patients would not affect TB burden but would be markedly cost-saving. In conclusion, Bulgaria faces important challenges in transitioning to a primarily domestically-financed TB programme. The country should consider maintaining currently effective programs and shifting towards ambulatory care to ensure program sustainability.

SUBMITTER: Doan TN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6873158 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Strategic investment in tuberculosis control in the Republic of Bulgaria.

Doan T N TN Varleva T T Zamfirova M M Tyufekchieva M M Keshelava A A Hristov K K Yaneva A A Gadzheva B B Zhang S S Irbe S S Ragonnet R R McBryde E S ES Trauer J M JM

Epidemiology and infection 20191118

As Bulgaria transitions away from Global Fund grant, robust estimates of the comparative impact of the various response strategies under consideration are needed to ensure sustained effectiveness of the tuberculosis (TB) programme. We tailored an established mathematical model for TB control to the epidemic in Bulgaria to project the likely outcomes of seven intervention scenarios. Under existing programmatic conditions projected forward, the country's targets for achieving TB elimination in the ...[more]

PMID: 31736454

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Project description:With the rapid pace of population ageing, tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly increasingly becomes a public health challenge. Despite the increasing burden and high risks for TB in the elderly, targeted strategy has not been well understood and evaluated. We undertook a scoping review to identify current TB strategies, research and policy gaps in the elderly and summarized the results within a strategic framework towards End TB targets. Databases of Embase, MEDLINE, Global health and EBM reviews were searched for original studies, review articles, and policy papers published in English between January 1990 and December 2015. Articles examining TB strategy, program, guideline or intervention in the elderly from public health perspective were included.Nineteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Most of them were qualitative studies, issued in high- and middle-income countries and after 2000. To break the chain of TB transmission and reactivation in the elderly, infection control, interventions of avoiding delay in diagnosis and containment are essential for preventing transmission, especially in elderly institutions and aged immigrants; screening of latent TB infection and preventive therapy had effective impacts on reducing the risk of reactivation and should be used less reluctantly in older people; optimizing early case-finding with a high index of suspicion, systematic screening for prioritized high-risk groups, initial empirical and adequate follow-up treatment with close monitoring and evaluation, as well as enhanced programmatic management are fundamental pillars for active TB elimination. Evaluation of TB epidemiology, risk factors, impacts and cost-effectiveness of interventions, adopting accurate and rapid diagnostic tools, shorter and less toxic preventive therapy, are critical issues for developing strategy in the elderly towards End TB targets.TB control strategies in the elderly were comprehensively mapped in a causal link pathway. The framework and principals identified in this study will help to evaluate and improve current program, develop targeted strategy, as well as raise more discussions on the research priority settings and policy transitions. Given the scarceness of policy and evaluated interventions, as well as the unawareness of shifting TB epidemiology and strategy especially in developing countries, the increasing need of a ready TB program for the elderly warrants further research.

Project description:Bulgaria is among the 18 high-priority countries of the WHO European Region with high rates of tuberculosis. The causative agent of tuberculosis is thought to have emerged in Africa 70,000 years ago, or during the Neolithic age, and colonized the world through human migrations. The established main lineages of tuberculosis correlate highly with geography. The goal of our study was to investigate the biodiversity of Mycobacteriumtuberculosis in Bulgaria in association with human migration history during the last 10 centuries. We analyzed spoligotypes and MIRU-VNTR genotyping data of 655 drug-sensitive and 385 multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains collected in Bulgaria from 2008 to 2018. We assigned the genotype of all isolates using SITVITWEB and MIRU-VNTRplus databases and software. We investigated the major well-documented historical events of immigration to Bulgaria that occurred during the last millennium. Genetic profiles demonstrated that, with the exceptions of 3 strains of Mycobacterium bovis and 18 strains of Lineage 2 (W/Beijing spoligotype), only Lineage 4 (Euro-American) was widely diffused in Bulgaria. Analysis of well-documented immigrations of Roma from the Indian subcontinent during the 10th to the 12th centuries, Turkic peoples from Central Asia in the medieval centuries, and more recently Armenians, Russians, and Africans in the 20th century influenced the biodiversity of M. tuberculosis in Bulgaria but only with genotypes of sublineages within the L4. We hypothesize that these sublineages were more virulent, or that ecological adaptation of imported M. tuberculosis genotypes was the main driver contributing to the current genetic biodiversity of M. tuberculosis in Bulgaria. We also hypothesize that some yet unknown local environmental factors may have been decisive in the success of imported genotypes. The ecological factors leading to local genetic biodiversity in M. tuberculosis are multifactorial and have not yet been fully clarified. The coevolution of long-lasting pathogen hosts should be studied, taking into account environmental and ecological changes.

Dataset Information

Strategic investment in tuberculosis control in the Republic of Bulgaria.

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Strategic investment in tuberculosis control in the Republic of Bulgaria.

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