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Low to medium-low risk perception for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks by infectious diseases physicians in France, Western Europe.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Many tropical countries are currently experiencing dengue (DEN), chikungunya (CHIK) and also more recently Zika (ZIKA) epidemics (particularly in Latin America). Although the risk of transmission and spread of these infections in temperate regions remains a controversial issue, vector-borne diseases have been widely reported in the media and have been the focus of preventive strategies by national and international policy-makers and public health authorities. In this context, we wanted to determine the extent of risk perception in infectious diseases (ID) physicians of the current and future risk of arboviral disease introduction, autochthonous case development and epidemic scenarios in France, Western Europe. METHODS:To this aim, we developed an original standardized questionnaire survey which was disseminated by the French Infectious Diseases Society to ID physician members. RESULTS:We found that ID physicians perceived the risk of introduction and outbreak development of DEN, CHIK and ZIKA in France to be low to medium-low. Generalized Linear Model(s) identified medical school training, the extent of professional experience, and awareness of the French national plan regarding arboviral infections as significant predictors for lower risk perception among respondents. CONCLUSION:Despite the fact that arboviral diseases are increasingly being imported into France, sometimes resulting in sporadic autochtonous transmission, French ID physicians do not perceive the risk as high. Better communication and education targeting health professionals and citizens will be needed to enhance the effectiveness of the French national plan to prepare against arboviral diseases.

SUBMITTER: Le Tyrant M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6889449 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Low to medium-low risk perception for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks by infectious diseases physicians in France, Western Europe.

Le Tyrant Marion M Bley Daniel D Leport Catherine C Alfandari Serge S Guégan Jean-François JF

BMC public health 20190731 1

<h4>Background</h4>Many tropical countries are currently experiencing dengue (DEN), chikungunya (CHIK) and also more recently Zika (ZIKA) epidemics (particularly in Latin America). Although the risk of transmission and spread of these infections in temperate regions remains a controversial issue, vector-borne diseases have been widely reported in the media and have been the focus of preventive strategies by national and international policy-makers and public health authorities. In this context, ...[more]

PMID: 31366341

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Project description:BackgroundEarly warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users' perspective of their applications.MethodsData were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area.FindingsThrough the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users' perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level.ConclusionsIn view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.

Project description:Dengue viruses are the most important arboviral pathogens in the world, which have adapted to human transmission and replication over several hundred years and were initially recognized to cause outbreaks of clinical disease in tropical and subtropical countries by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Subsequent global expansion of dengue infection outbreaks has occurred, with millions of cases yearly, probably from a combination of factors including proliferation of international travel and trade, possibly global climate changes, adaptation of the vectors to new environment, and emergence of a new mosquito vector, Aedes albopictus. Chikungunya virus, also transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, causes a very similar clinical disease but with more prominent arthralgia or arthritis and was originally described in Africa in the 1960s. After a quiescent period of several decades, it reemerged in Africa in 2004 and rapidly spread across the Indian Ocean to involve Asian countries and parts of Europe. However, the past 2 years have seen the emergence of chikungunya virus in the western hemisphere with major outbreaks in the Caribbean and the Americas. Similar to dengue virus, chikungunya virus has adapted to Ae. albopictus mosquitoes which can transmit the disease. Although dengue infection is a more deadly disease especially in young children, chikungunya infection can cause prolonged severe disability and occasionally rare fatalities from encephalitis. No specific treatment is available for either diseases, but development of an effective vaccine for dengue infection is in progress. Until 2007, Zika virus [also transmitted by Aedes species] was associated with only sporadic mild infections in Africa and Asia. In 2007, Zika virus for the first time caused an outbreak beyond Africa and Asia to the Yap Island in the Federated States of Micronesia. Since then Zika virus has spread to French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, and Easter Island in the southeastern Pacific Ocean [Chile] in 2014 and by 2015 to Brazil. By January 2016, it became evident that Zika virus had caused an explosive outbreak in the Americas and the Caribbean with over 30 countries affected. On February 1, 2016, the World Health Organization declared Zika outbreak a global public health emergency. Zika virus infection is most commonly asymptomatic, and 20% of patients may develop a mild viral disease, but of major concern is the reported association of microcephaly in infected pregnant women in Brazil. This chapter explores the history, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical features, treatment, and prevention of these rapidly emerging zoonoses.

Project description:Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal variation in temperature, the model provides a baseline for mechanistically understanding environmental suitability for virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Overlaying the impact of human activities and socioeconomic factors onto this mechanistic temperature-dependent framework is critical for understanding likelihood and magnitude of outbreaks.

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Low to medium-low risk perception for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks by infectious diseases physicians in France, Western Europe.

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Low to medium-low risk perception for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks by infectious diseases physicians in France, Western Europe.

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