Predictive modeling in urgent care: a comparative study of machine learning approaches.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tang F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6951928 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Frailty is one of the most critical age-related conditions in older adults. It is often recognized as a syndrome of physiological decline in late life, characterized by a marked vulnerability to adverse health outcomes. A clear operational definition of frailty, however, has not been agreed so far. There is a wide range of studies on the detection of frailty and their association with mortality. Several of these studies have focused on the possible risk factors associated with frailty in the elderly population while predicting who will be at increased risk of frailty is still overlooked in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE:The objective of our study was to develop predictive models for frailty conditions in older people using different machine learning methods based on a database of clinical characteristics and socioeconomic factors. METHODS:An administrative health database containing 1,095,612 elderly people aged 65 or older with 58 input variables and 6 output variables was used. We first identify and define six problems/outputs as surrogates of frailty. We then resolve the imbalanced nature of the data through resampling process and a comparative study between the different machine learning (ML) algorithms - Artificial neural network (ANN), Genetic programming (GP), Support vector machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Logistic regression (LR) and Decision tree (DT) - was carried out. The performance of each model was evaluated using a separate unseen dataset. RESULTS:Predicting mortality outcome has shown higher performance with ANN (TPR 0.81, TNR 0.76, accuracy 0.78, F1-score 0.79) and SVM (TPR 0.77, TNR 0.80, accuracy 0.79, F1-score 0.78) than predicting the other outcomes. On average, over the six problems, the DT classifier has shown the lowest accuracy, while other models (GP, LR, RF, ANN, and SVM) performed better. All models have shown lower accuracy in predicting an event of an emergency admission with red code than predicting fracture and disability. In predicting urgent hospitalization, only SVM achieved better performance (TPR 0.75, TNR 0.77, accuracy 0.73, F1-score 0.76) with the 10-fold cross validation compared with other models in all evaluation metrics. CONCLUSIONS:We developed machine learning models for predicting frailty conditions (mortality, urgent hospitalization, disability, fracture, and emergency admission). The results show that the prediction performance of machine learning models significantly varies from problem to problem in terms of different evaluation metrics. Through further improvement, the model that performs better can be used as a base for developing decision-support tools to improve early identification and prediction of frail older adults.
| S-EPMC7303829 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We conducted a two-vector CRISPR/Cas13d proliferation screening experiment. The screening library contains 10,830 sgRNAs targeting 192 protein-coding genes and 234 lncRNAs, and the screening experiment was performed using a melanoma cell line A375. It provides a unique dataset to model Cas13d sgRNA efficiency and specificity. We designed a deep learning model, named DeepCas13, to predict the sgRNA on-target activity with high accuracy from sgRNA sequences and RNA secondary structures.
2023-01-16 | GSE183256 | GEO
Project description:Postpartum depression is a serious health issue beyond the mental health problems that affect mothers after childbirth. There are no predictive tools available to screen postpartum depression that also allow early interventions. We aimed to develop predictive models for postpartum depression using machine learning (ML) approaches. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System 2012-2013 with 28,755 records (3339 postpartum depression and 25,416 normal cases). The imbalance between the two groups was addressed by a balanced resampling using both random down-sampling and the synthetic minority over-sampling technique. Nine different ML algorithms, including random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting, support vector machines (SVM), recursive partitioning and regression trees, naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbor (kNN), logistic regression, and neural network, were employed with 10-fold cross-validation to evaluate the models. The overall classification accuracies of the nine models ranged from 0.650 (kNN) to 0.791 (RF). The RF method achieved the highest area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.884, followed by SVM, which achieved the second-best performance with an AUC value of 0.864. Predictive modeling developed using ML-approaches may thus be used as a prediction (screening) tool for postpartum depression in future studies.
| S-EPMC7564708 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper investigates suitability of supervised machine learning classification methods for classification of biomes using pollen datasets. We assign modern pollen samples from Africa and Arabia to five biome classes using a previously published African pollen dataset and a global ecosystem classification scheme. To test the applicability of traditional and machine-learning based classification models for the task of biome prediction from high dimensional modern pollen data, we train a total of eight classification models, including Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification Decision Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. The ability of each model to predict biomes from pollen data is statistically tested on an independent test set. The Random Forest classifier outperforms other models in its ability correctly classify biomes given pollen data. Out of the eight models, the Random Forest classifier scores highest on all of the metrics used for model evaluations and is able to predict four out of five biome classes to high degree of accuracy, including arid, montane, tropical and subtropical closed and open systems, e.g. forests and savanna/grassland. The model has the potential for accurate reconstructions of past biomes and awaits application to fossil pollen sequences. The Random Forest model may be used to investigate vegetation changes on both long and short time scales, e.g. during glacial and interglacial cycles, or more recent and abrupt climatic anomalies like the African Humid Period. Such applications may contribute to a better understanding of past shifts in vegetation cover and ultimately provide valuable information on drivers of climate change.
| S-EPMC6122137 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Computational modeling has earned significant interest as an alternative to animal testing of toxicity assessment. However, the process of selecting an appropriate algorithm and fine-tuning hyperparameters for the developing of optimized models takes considerable time, expertise, and an intensive search. The recent emergence of automated machine learning (autoML) approaches, available as user-friendly platforms, has proven beneficial for individuals with limited knowledge in ML-based predictive model development. These autoML platforms automate crucial steps in model development, including data preprocessing, algorithm selection, and hyperparameter tuning. In this study, we used seven previously published and publicly available datasets for oxides and metals to develop nanotoxicity prediction models. AutoML platforms, namely Vertex AI, Azure, and Dataiku, were employed and performance measures such as accuracy, F1 score, precision, and recall for these autoML-based models were then compared with those of conventional ML-based models. The results demonstrated clearly that the autoML platforms produced more reliable nanotoxicity prediction models, outperforming those built with conventional ML algorithms. While none of the three autoML platforms significantly outperformed the others, distinctions exist among them in terms of the available options for choosing technical features throughout the model development steps. This allows users to select an autoML platform that aligns with their knowledge of predictive model development and its technical features. Additionally, prediction models constructed from datasets with better data quality displayed, enhanced performance than those built from datasets with lower data quality, indicating that future studies with high-quality datasets can further improve the performance of those autoML-based prediction models.
| S-EPMC10899003 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to create a model for predicting the onset of peri-implantitis by using machine learning methods and to clarify interactions between risk indicators. This study evaluated 254 implants, 127 with and 127 without peri-implantitis, from among 1408 implants with at least 4 years in function. Demographic data and parameters known to be risk factors for the development of peri-implantitis were analyzed with three models: logistic regression, support vector machines, and random forests (RF). As the results, RF had the highest performance in predicting the onset of peri-implantitis (AUC: 0.71, accuracy: 0.70, precision: 0.72, recall: 0.66, and f1-score: 0.69). The factor that had the most influence on prediction was implant functional time, followed by oral hygiene. In addition, PCR of more than 50% to 60%, smoking more than 3 cigarettes/day, KMW less than 2 mm, and the presence of less than two occlusal supports tended to be associated with an increased risk of peri-implantitis. Moreover, these risk indicators were not independent and had complex effects on each other. The results of this study suggest that peri-implantitis onset was predicted in 70% of cases, by RF which allows consideration of nonlinear relational data with complex interactions.
| S-EPMC8160334 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Hospital readmission prediction in pediatric hospitals has received little attention. Studies have focused on the readmission frequency analysis stratified by disease and demographic/geographic characteristics but there are no predictive modeling approaches, which may be useful to identify preventable readmissions that constitute a major portion of the cost attributed to readmissions. Objective:To assess the all-cause readmission predictive performance achieved by machine learning techniques in the emergency department of a pediatric hospital in Santiago, Chile. Materials:An all-cause admissions dataset has been collected along six consecutive years in a pediatric hospital in Santiago, Chile. The variables collected are the same used for the determination of the child's treatment administrative cost. Methods:Retrospective predictive analysis of 30-day readmission was formulated as a binary classification problem. We report classification results achieved with various model building approaches after data curation and preprocessing for correction of class imbalance. We compute repeated cross-validation (RCV) with decreasing number of folders to assess performance and sensitivity to effect of imbalance in the test set and training set size. Results:Increase in recall due to SMOTE class imbalance correction is large and statistically significant. The Naive Bayes (NB) approach achieves the best AUC (0.65); however the shallow multilayer perceptron has the best PPV and f-score (5.6 and 10.2, resp.). The NB and support vector machines (SVM) give comparable results if we consider AUC, PPV, and f-score ranking for all RCV experiments. High recall of deep multilayer perceptron is due to high false positive ratio. There is no detectable effect of the number of folds in the RCV on the predictive performance of the algorithms. Conclusions:We recommend the use of Naive Bayes (NB) with Gaussian distribution model as the most robust modeling approach for pediatric readmission prediction, achieving the best results across all training dataset sizes. The results show that the approach could be applied to detect preventable readmissions.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:This paper studies the temporal consistency of health care expenditures in a large state Medicaid program. Predictive machine learning models were used to forecast the expenditures, especially for the high-cost, high-need (HCHN) patients. RESULTS:We systematically tests temporal correlation of patient-level health care expenditures in both the short and long terms. The results suggest that medical expenditures are significantly correlated over multiple periods. Our work demonstrates a prevalent and strong temporal correlation and shows promise for predicting future health care expenditures using machine learning. Temporal correlation is stronger in HCHN patients and their expenditures can be better predicted. Including more past periods is beneficial for better predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS:This study shows that there is significant temporal correlation in health care expenditures. Machine learning models can help to accurately forecast the expenditures. These results could advance the field toward precise preventive care to lower overall health care costs and deliver care more efficiently.
| S-EPMC6245495 | biostudies-other
Project description:Liposome is one of the most widely used carriers for drug delivery because of the great biocompatibility and biodegradability. Due to the complex formulation components and preparation process, formulation screening mostly relies on trial-and-error process with low efficiency. Here liposome formulation prediction models have been built by machine learning (ML) approaches. The important parameters of liposomes, including size, polydispersity index (PDI), zeta potential and encapsulation, are predicted individually by optimal ML algorithm, while the formulation features are also ranked to provide important guidance for formulation design. The analysis of key parameter reveals that drug molecules with logS [-3, -6], molecular complexity [500, 1000] and XLogP3 (≥2) are priority for preparing liposome with higher encapsulation. In addition, naproxen (NAP) and palmatine HCl (PAL) represented the insoluble and water-soluble molecules are prepared as liposome formulations to validate prediction ability. The consistency between predicted and experimental value verifies the satisfied accuracy of ML models. As the drug properties are critical for liposome particles, the molecular interactions and dynamics of NAP and PAL liposome are further investigated by coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. The modeling structure reveals that NAP molecules could distribute into lipid layer, while most PAL molecules aggregate in the inner aqueous phase of liposome. The completely different physical state of NAP and PAL confirms the importance of drug properties for liposome formulations. In summary, the general prediction models are built to predict liposome formulations, and the impacts of key factors are analyzed by combing ML with molecular modeling. The availability and rationality of these intelligent prediction systems have been proved in this study, which could be applied for liposome formulation development in the future.
| S-EPMC10232664 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTwitter presents a valuable and relevant social media platform to study the prevalence of information and sentiment on vaping that may be useful for public health surveillance. Machine learning classifiers that identify vaping-relevant tweets and characterize sentiments in them can underpin a Twitter-based vaping surveillance system. Compared with traditional machine learning classifiers that are reliant on annotations that are expensive to obtain, deep learning classifiers offer the advantage of requiring fewer annotated tweets by leveraging the large numbers of readily available unannotated tweets.ObjectiveThis study aims to derive and evaluate traditional and deep learning classifiers that can identify tweets relevant to vaping, tweets of a commercial nature, and tweets with provape sentiments.MethodsWe continuously collected tweets that matched vaping-related keywords over 2 months from August 2018 to October 2018. From this data set of tweets, a set of 4000 tweets was selected, and each tweet was manually annotated for relevance (vape relevant or not), commercial nature (commercial or not), and sentiment (provape or not). Using the annotated data, we derived traditional classifiers that included logistic regression, random forest, linear support vector machine, and multinomial naive Bayes. In addition, using the annotated data set and a larger unannotated data set of tweets, we derived deep learning classifiers that included a convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) network, LSTM-CNN network, and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) network. The unannotated tweet data were used to derive word vectors that deep learning classifiers can leverage to improve performance.ResultsLSTM-CNN performed the best with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.96 (95% CI 0.93-0.98) for relevance, all deep learning classifiers including LSTM-CNN performed better than the traditional classifiers with an AUC of 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99) for distinguishing commercial from noncommercial tweets, and BiLSTM performed the best with an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.89) for provape sentiment. Overall, LSTM-CNN performed the best across all 3 classification tasks.ConclusionsWe derived and evaluated traditional machine learning and deep learning classifiers to identify vaping-related relevant, commercial, and provape tweets. Overall, deep learning classifiers such as LSTM-CNN had superior performance and had the added advantage of requiring no preprocessing. The performance of these classifiers supports the development of a vaping surveillance system.
| S-EPMC7450367 | biostudies-literature