Is temperature reducing the transmission of COVID-19 ?
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tobias A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7165096 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:This study utilizes the non-linear least squares method to estimate the impact of temperature on COVID-19 cases per million in forty-three countries, divided into three groups as follows: the first group is composed of thirteen countries that announced the first COVID-19 cases in January 2020, while the second and third groups contain thirteen and seventeen countries, respectively, that witnessed the pandemic for the first time in February and March of the same year. This relationship was measured after four time periods from the date of reporting the first case until April 1, April 15, May 15, and July 8, 2020. The results show an inverse relationship between COVID-19 cases per million and the temperature in the studies of the four-time periods for the three-country groups. These results were only significant statistically (p < 0.1) after 110.8, 164.8 days on average from the beginning of the pandemic in the case of "January" countries.
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Project description:The WHO characterized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic. The influence of temperature on COVID-19 remains unclear. The objective of this study was to investigate the correlation between temperature and daily newly confirmed COVID-19 cases by different climate regions and temperature levels worldwide. Daily data on average temperature (AT), maximum temperature (MAXT), minimum temperature (MINT), and new COVID-19 cases were collected from 153 countries and 31 provinces of mainland China. We used the spline function method to preliminarily explore the relationship between R0 and temperature. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the association between temperature and daily new cases of COVID-19, and a random effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the pooled results in different regions in the second stage. Our findings revealed that temperature was positively related to daily new cases at low temperature but negatively related to daily new cases at high temperature. When the temperature was below the smoothing plot peak, in the temperate zone or at a low temperature level (e.g., <25th percentiles), the RRs were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.15), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.15), and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.23) associated with a 1°C increase in AT, respectively. Whereas temperature was above the smoothing plot peak, in a tropical zone or at a high temperature level (e.g., >75th percentiles), the RRs were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.93), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.83), and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.28, 0.81) associated with a 1°C increase in AT, respectively. The results were confirmed to be similar regarding MINT, MAXT, and sensitivity analysis. These findings provide preliminary evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in different regions and temperature levels.
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Project description:The COVID-19 outbreak has already become a global pandemic and containing this rapid worldwide transmission is of great challenge. The impacts of temperature and humidity on the COVID-19 transmission rate are still under discussion. Here, we elucidated these relationships by utilizing two unique scenarios, repeated measurement and natural experiment, using the COVID-19 cases reported from January 23 - February 21, 2020, in China. The modeling results revealed that higher temperature was most strongly associated with decreased COVID-19 transmission at a lag time of 8 days. Relative humidity (RH) appeared to have only a slight effect. These findings were verified by assessing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity under the relevant conditions of temperature (4°C-37°C) and RH (> 40%). We concluded that temperature increase made an important, but not determined, contribution to restrain the COVID-19 outbreak in China. It suggests that the emphasis of other effective controlling polices should be strictly implemented to restrain COVID-19 transmission in cold seasons.
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Project description:COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily counts of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020 and in other provinces from January 20, 2020 to Februarys 11, 2020). A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1 °C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04 °C to 8.2 °C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.
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Project description:INTRODUCTION:Implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) protect the public from COVID-19. However, the impact of NPIs has been inconsistent and remains unclear. This study, therefore, aims to measure the impact of major NPIs (social distancing, social isolation and quarantine) on reducing COVID-19 transmission. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:We will conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis research of both randomised and non-randomised controlled trials. We will undertake a systematic search of: MEDLINE, Embase, Allied & Complementary Medicine, COVID-19 Research, WHO database on COVID-19, ClinicalTrails.Gov for clinical trials on COVID-19, Cochrane Resources on Coronavirus (COVID-19), Oxford COVID-19 Evidence Service and Google Scholar for published and unpublished literatures on COVID-19 including preprint engines such as medRxiv, bioRxiv, Litcovid and SSRN for unpublished studies on COVID-19 and will be reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Outcomes of interest for impact analysis will include the reduction of COVID-19 transmission, avoiding crowds and restricting movement, isolating ill and psychological impacts. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols checklist has been used for this protocol. For quality of included studies, we will use the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias for randomised controlled trials and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach will grade the certainty of the evidence for all outcome measures across studies. Random-effects model for meta-analysis will measure the effect size of NPIs or the strengths of relationships. For quantitative data, risk ratio or OR, absolute risk difference (for dichotomous outcome data), or mean difference or standardised mean difference (for continuous data) and their 95% CIs will be calculated. Where statistical pooling is not possible, a narrative synthesis will be conducted for the included studies. To assess the heterogeneity of effects, I2 together with the observed effects will be evaluated to provide the true effects in the analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:Formal ethical approval from an institutional review board or research ethics committee is not required as primary data will not be collected. The final results of this study will be published in an open-access peer-reviewed journal, and abstract will be presented at suitable national/international conferences or workshops. We will also share important information with public health authorities as well as with the WHO. In addition, we may post the submitted manuscript under review to medRxiv, or other relevant preprint servers. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER:CRD42020207338.
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