Dataset Information

Identifying threshold responses of Australian dryland rivers to future hydroclimatic change.

ABSTRACT: Rivers provide crucial ecosystem services in water-stressed drylands. Australian dryland rivers are geomorphologically diverse, ranging from through-going, single channels to discontinuous, multi-channelled systems, yet we have limited understanding of their sensitivity to future hydroclimatic changes. Here, we characterise for the first time the geomorphology of 29 dryland rivers with catchments across a humid to arid gradient covering >1,800,000?km² of continental eastern and central Australia. Statistical separation of five specific dominantly alluvial river types and quantification of their present-day catchment hydroclimates enables identification of potential thresholds of change. Projected aridity increases across eastern Australia by 2070 (RCP4.5) will result in ~80% of the dryland rivers crossing a threshold from one type to another, manifesting in major geomorphological changes. Dramatic cases will see currently through-going rivers (e.g. Murrumbidgee, Macintyre) experience step changes towards greater discontinuity, characterised by pronounced downstream declines in channel size and local termination. Expanding our approach to include other river styles (e.g. mixed bedrock-alluvial) would allow similar analyses of dryland rivers globally where hydroclimate is an important driver of change. Early identification of dryland river responses to future hydroclimatic change has far-reaching implications for the ~2 billion people that live in drylands and rely on riverine ecosystem services.

SUBMITTER: Larkin ZT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7171090 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identifying threshold responses of Australian dryland rivers to future hydroclimatic change.

Larkin Z T ZT Ralph T J TJ Tooth S S Fryirs K A KA Carthey A J R AJR

Scientific reports 20200420 1

Rivers provide crucial ecosystem services in water-stressed drylands. Australian dryland rivers are geomorphologically diverse, ranging from through-going, single channels to discontinuous, multi-channelled systems, yet we have limited understanding of their sensitivity to future hydroclimatic changes. Here, we characterise for the first time the geomorphology of 29 dryland rivers with catchments across a humid to arid gradient covering >1,800,000 km<sup>2</sup> of continental eastern and centra ...[more]

PMID: 32313045

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Project description:AimDryland ecosystems are exceedingly sensitive to climate change. Desertification induced by both climate changes and human activities seriously threatens dryland vegetation. However, the impact of climate change on distribution of dryland plant species has not been well documented. Here, we studied the potential distribution of four representative dryland plant species (Haloxylon ammodendron, Anabasis aphylla, Calligonum mongolicum, and Populus euphratica) under current and future climate scenarios in a temperate desert region, aiming to improve our understanding of the responses of dryland plant species to climate change and provide guidance for dryland conservation and afforestation.LocationJunggar Basin, a large desert region in northwestern China.MethodsOccurrence data of the studied species were collected from an extensive field investigation of 2,516 sampling sites in the Junggar Basin. Ensemble species distribution models using 10 algorithms were developed and used to predict the potential distribution of each studied species under current and future climate scenarios.ResultHaloxylon ammodendron and A. aphylla were likely to lose most of their current suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, while C. mongolicum and P. euphratica were likely to expand their ranges or remain relatively stationary. Variable importance evaluation showed that the most important climate variables influencing species distribution differed across the studied species. These results may be explained by the different ecophysiological characteristics and adaptation strategies to the environment of the four studied species.Main conclusionsWe explored the responses of the representative dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. The different changes in suitability of different species imply that policymakers may need to reconsider the selection and combination of the afforestation species used in this area. This study can provide valuable reference for the management and conservation of dryland ecosystems under future climate change scenarios.

Dataset Information

Identifying threshold responses of Australian dryland rivers to future hydroclimatic change.

Publications

Identifying threshold responses of Australian dryland rivers to future hydroclimatic change.

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